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Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research.
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The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months.
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To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.
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Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June.
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Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month.
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The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment).
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The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969.
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Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows.
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In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points.
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Negative GDP Growth
One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter.
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Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.
Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data.
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Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter.
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Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories.
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Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels.
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Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.
The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for Nokia employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.
The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981.
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Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market.
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If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.
Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July.
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It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.
No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023.
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If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for Nokia employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months.
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To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.
Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.
1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022
Tags: Financial Planning , Gas , Mileage , IRS
What unique features and benefits does the Nokia Retirement Income Plan offer to its participants, and how can these benefits be maximized by current employees of Nokia of America Corporation? Additionally, what resources are available for employees to educate themselves about the various aspects of the plan, including eligibility, distribution options, and potential tax implications?
The Nokia Retirement Income Plan offers participants a defined benefit plan designed to provide financial security through retirement by supplementing Social Security and other retirement savings. Benefits can be maximized through strategies like ensuring accurate service records, understanding distribution options such as lump-sum payments or annuities, and consulting financial advisors to align these benefits with long-term retirement goals(Nokia of America Corpor…).
How does participation in the Nokia Retirement Income Plan facilitate financial security in retirement for employees, specifically in terms of pension benefit calculations and options such as lump-sum distributions or annuities? Moreover, what are some strategies that Nokia of America Corporation employees can employ to ensure they are fully prepared to utilize their retirement benefits as they transition towards retirement?
Participation in the Nokia Retirement Income Plan ensures financial security in retirement through pension benefit calculations based on service years and salary history. Employees can choose from options like lump-sum distributions or lifetime annuities. By carefully selecting a distribution option and incorporating it into a broader retirement strategy, employees can optimize financial outcomes(Nokia of America Corpor…).
With respect to changes in personal circumstances, such as marriage or divorce, what provisions does the Nokia Retirement Income Plan have to protect the benefits of employees from Nokia of America Corporation? How can employees navigate the complexities of Qualified Domestic Relations Orders (QDROs) within the context of their pension benefits, and what resources are available to assist them in this process?
The Nokia Retirement Income Plan protects benefits in cases of personal changes such as marriage or divorce through provisions like the Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO). Employees can consult the Nokia Benefits Resource Center for assistance in navigating QDROs to ensure a fair division of benefits. Guidance is available for understanding the QDRO requirements and how they apply to their pension(Nokia of America Corpor…).
What steps must employees take to initiate the commencement of their benefits from the Nokia Retirement Income Plan once they reach retirement age? Furthermore, what are the important considerations employees need to keep in mind regarding the selection of a payment form and any potential impact this may have on their overall financial strategy during retirement?
To initiate pension benefits under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan, employees must submit a claim when they reach retirement age. They should consider factors such as payment form options (lump sum or annuity) and the impact on long-term financial plans. Choosing the appropriate payment form is critical to maximizing retirement income(Nokia of America Corpor…).
How can employees of Nokia of America Corporation ensure their beneficiaries are properly designated under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan, and what implications does this designation have for benefit distribution in the event of their death? Additionally, what steps should employees take to update their beneficiary designations in light of significant life events?
Employees can ensure their beneficiaries are properly designated by updating their beneficiary forms through the Nokia Benefits Resource Center. Proper designation affects how benefits are distributed in the event of their death, and it is crucial to update designations after life events like marriage, divorce, or the birth of a child(Nokia of America Corpor…).
In terms of compliance with federal regulations, how does the Nokia Retirement Income Plan adhere to ERISA guidelines concerning employee benefits, and what rights do employees of Nokia of America Corporation possess under these regulations? Also, how can employees exercise their rights effectively if they encounter issues regarding their pension benefits?
The Nokia Retirement Income Plan complies with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), giving employees the right to receive information about their benefits and hold fiduciaries accountable. If employees face issues with their pension, they can exercise their rights through claims and appeals, with recourse available through legal action if necessary(Nokia of America Corpor…).
How does the Nokia of America Corporation support employees who might be eligible for a disability pension under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan, and what specific eligibility criteria must be met? Additionally, what resources are available to assist employees in understanding this facet of their retirement benefits?
Employees eligible for a disability pension under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan must meet specific criteria, such as proving permanent disability before reaching retirement age. Resources like the Nokia Benefits Resource Center can provide guidance on the eligibility process and required documentation(Nokia of America Corpor…).
What specific actions should an employee of Nokia of America Corporation take when applying for a pension benefit under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan, and what documentation is typically required to streamline this process? Furthermore, in the event of a claim denial, what recourse do employees have to challenge the decision through the plan's appeal process?
When applying for pension benefits, employees should provide documentation such as proof of age and employment history. In case of a denial, they have the right to appeal through the Employee Benefits Committee. If necessary, employees can further appeal to federal courts under ERISA(Nokia of America Corpor…).
How does the pension benefit guarantee from the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) apply to employees of Nokia of America Corporation, and what are the limitations of this guarantee in protecting retirement benefits? Additionally, how can understanding these protections help employees make informed decisions regarding their retirement planning?
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) guarantees benefits under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan in case the plan terminates. However, there are limitations, such as caps on benefit amounts. Understanding these protections helps employees make informed decisions about their retirement planning(Nokia of America Corpor…).
How can employees contact the Nokia Benefits Resource Center to gain more information about their benefits and the specific resources available under the Nokia Retirement Income Plan? What are the recommended communication channels and hours for reaching out to ensure timely and effective assistance?
Employees can contact the Nokia Benefits Resource Center through the Your Benefits Resources (YBR) website or by calling the designated phone line. It is recommended to use these channels during business hours (9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET) for timely assistance with pension-related questions(Nokia of America Corpor…).
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