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Revisiting the 4% Withdrawal Rule for ExxonMobil Employees

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Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for ExxonMobil For the upcoming year, ExxonMobil's primary healthcare provider is Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas (BCBSTX). Effective from January 1, 2025, employees and their families will access healthcare through BCBSTX, ensuring improved network access and support for managing healthcare costs. Prescription drug services will continue to be provided by Express Scripts. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, ExxonMobil may experience significant healthcare cost increases, paralleling broader trends in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. With some states projecting premium hikes of over 60% and the potential loss of enhanced federal premium subsidies, many employees could see their out-of-pocket costs escalate dramatically. The Kaiser Family Foundation has highlighted that without congressional action, most marketplace enrollees might face increases exceeding 75%. These combined pressures will necessitate careful planning and strategic healthcare decisions from ExxonMobil employees going into 2026. Click here to learn more

After leaving ExxonMobil, it can be difficult to save for retirement, and it can be equally challenging to use those savings prudently. How much can you withdraw annually from your savings? This is an important issue that many of our ExxonMobil clients frequently ask, and with good reason: if you withdraw too much, you risk running out of money, but if you withdraw too little, you may lose out on a comfortable ExxonMobil retirement.

The '4% rule' has been the most prevalent guideline for over 25 years. This rule suggests that a withdrawal equal to 4% of the portfolio's initial value, with annual adjustments for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement period. This guideline can assist ExxonMobil employees in establishing a savings objective and providing a realistic picture of the annual income their savings could generate. For example, a $1 million portfolio could generate $40,000 in the first year, followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals.

Over the years, the 4% rule has generated substantial debate, with some experts contending that 4% is too low and others arguing that it is too high. Due to the allegations, we believe it is necessary to analyze both the original and most recent research regarding the 4% rule with our ExxonMobil customers. The rule's creator, financial expert William Bengen, believes it has been misconstrued and provides new insights based on recent research. Determine whether he is right. 

Original research

Bengen published his findings for the first time in 1994, after analyzing data for retirements from 1926 to 1976 — a total of 50 years of data. He considered a hypothetical conservative portfolio consisting of fifty percent large-cap equities and fifty percent intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. In the worst-case scenario, retirement in October 1968, a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate was the greatest sustainable rate. This marked the onset of a prolonged bear market and high inflation. All other retirement years featured higher sustainable rates, with some exceeding 10%.[1]

Obviously, no one can predict the future, which is why Bengen proposed a sustainable rate based on the worst-case scenario. Based on a more diversified portfolio of 30% large-cap equities, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries, he later increased it to 4.5%.[2]

New research

Now that we comprehend Bengen's original research, we'd like to examine a more recent analysis conducted with ExxonMobil clients. Bengen published new research in October 2020 that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on the valuation of the stock market and inflation (the annual change in the Consumer Price Index) at the time of retirement. Theoretically, when the market is expensive, it has less potential for growth, and it may be more difficult to sustain increased withdrawals over time. Lower inflation, on the other hand, results in lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing for a higher initial rate. A first-year withdrawal of $40,000 becomes $84,000 after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase, but only $58,000 with a 2% increase.

Bengen used Shiller CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index devised by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, to measure market valuation. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by the stock's 12-month earnings per share. For instance, if the price per share of a stock is $100 and its earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE is calculated by dividing the total share price of S&P 500 equities by their 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings.

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5% Rule?

Bengen utilized historical data once more, this time for over sixty years of retirement. Bengen discovered a correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the utmost sustainable withdrawal rate by analyzing retirement dates from 1926 to 1990. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5 percent to as high as 13 percent, but the scenarios that supported high rates were rare, involving extremely low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation.[3]

Since the Great Recession, the United States has experienced low inflation and high market valuations for the majority of the last 25 years.[4-5] Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable for 30 years in a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement.[6] While this is not a substantial deviation from the 4% rule, it does suggest that retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in an environment with low inflation. However, when inflation is significant, withdrawals should decrease. 

A caveat is that the market's current valuation is extremely high: At the end of 2020, the S&P 500 index had a CAPE of 34.19, a level only attained (and surpassed) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of Bengen's research scenarios.[7] His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of at least 23 and an inflation rate between 0% and 2.5%.[8] (Inflation in November 2020 was 1.2%.)[9] Bengen's research suggests that a 6% withdrawal rate may be sustainable if inflation is 5% or less and market valuation falls to near the historical mean of 16.77. Alternatively, if valuation remains high and inflation exceeds 2.5%, the utmost sustainable rate could reach 4.5%.[10]

ExxonMobil employees must remember that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a notional portfolio, and there is no assurance that their portfolio will perform similarly. ExxonMobil employees must also keep in mind that these calculations are based on annual withdrawals adjusted for inflation, and you may choose not to increase withdrawals in certain years or use other criteria, such as market performance, to make adjustments.

Although there is no guarantee that working with a financial professional will improve investment performance, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, such as your withdrawal strategy.

We would like to remind our ExxonMobil clients that all investments are subject to market volatility, risk, and principal loss. Investments may sell for more or less than their initial cost upon sale. The timely payment of principal and interest on U.S. Treasury securities is guaranteed by the federal government. Treasury securities' principal value fluctuates with market conditions. They may be worth more or less than the amount paid if not held to maturity. Allocation of assets and diversification are techniques used to manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or guard against investment loss. Rebalancing requires the sale of some investments in order to purchase others; the sale of investments in a taxable account may result in a tax liability.

The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged collection of stocks that is representative of the U.S. stock market as a whole. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of any particular investment's performance. Individuals cannot invest in an index directly. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The actual outcomes will differ.

Conclusion

Imagine you are on a road trip, driving through unfamiliar terrain. You come across a fork in the road, with one path leading towards a beautiful and scenic destination, while the other path looks rocky and uncertain. The decision you make at this juncture could have a significant impact on your journey and your ultimate destination. Similarly, retirement is like a fork in the road of life. One path leads to a comfortable and enjoyable retirement, while the other path could lead to financial difficulties and hardship. This article provides guidance on how to navigate this fork in the road, with tips on how to save and invest wisely, how to plan for unexpected events, and how to ensure a comfortable retirement. Whether you are a ExxonMobil worker looking to retire or an already existing retiree, the information in this article is pertinent to you and will help you make the best decision for your retirement journey.

1-2) Forbes Advisor, October 12, 2020
3-4, 6, 8, 10) Financial Advisor, October 2020
5, 9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020
7) multpl.com, December 31, 2020

How does the ExxonMobil Savings Plan compare against typical retirement savings plans, and what unique features does it offer that can benefit employees approaching retirement? Additionally, can you elaborate on the necessary steps ExxonMobil employees should take within the savings plan to ensure maximum contributions and employer match during their service years?

ExxonMobil Savings Plan: ExxonMobil's Savings Plan offers flexibility with pre-tax, after-tax, and Roth contributions, and features a 7% company match for the first 6% of employee contributions, a unique benefit compared to typical plans. Employees should contribute the maximum percentage to receive the full match and regularly review their investment allocations through the Voya platform​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

What are the eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the ExxonMobil Pension Plan, and how is the retirement benefit calculated? As employees consider their long-term savings strategy, how does the option of a lump-sum distribution versus an annuity influence their financial planning at ExxonMobil?

ExxonMobil Pension Plan: Employees are automatically enrolled and eligible for benefits after five years of service, with full retirement benefits offered at 55 with 15 years of service. The pension is calculated based on 1.6% of final average pay multiplied by years of service, minus a social security offset. Lump-sum and annuity options affect long-term financial planning, with lump sums offering immediate flexibility while annuities provide a steady income​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

In what ways does the ExxonMobil Employee Assistance Program (EAP) support employees during personal or family crises, and what confidentiality measures are in place to protect their privacy? Additionally, how can ExxonMobil employees access these services, and what are the key resources available through this program?

Employee Assistance Program (EAP): ExxonMobil's EAP provides confidential counseling services for personal and family issues like anxiety, addiction, and family conflict. Services are accessible by phone, video chat, or text, with privacy strictly protected. Employees can contact ComPsych for guidance and support through the GuidanceNow app or website​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

With the introduction of Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) at ExxonMobil, how do these accounts help employees manage their health care and dependent care expenses more effectively? What guidelines should employees follow to ensure they maximize their tax advantages while complying with IRS regulations during the enrollment process?

Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs): FSAs at ExxonMobil allow employees to reduce taxable income by contributing pre-tax dollars to healthcare or dependent care expenses. Employees should estimate their expenses carefully during the enrollment period and comply with IRS rules, ensuring they submit claims by April 15th of the following year​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

How does ExxonMobil define "work-life balance," and what specific benefits and programs are in place to support this philosophy for employees? Can you discuss how employees can utilize these options, such as flexible schedules and leave of absence policies, without negatively impacting their career progression within the company?

Work-Life Balance: ExxonMobil promotes work-life balance with programs like “Flex Your Day,” allowing flexibility in work hours, and up to 20 days of back-up dependent care. Employees are encouraged to use these options strategically to maintain career progression while balancing personal obligations​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

In light of the various medical plan options offered at ExxonMobil, how should employees approach selecting the right plan to best meet their healthcare needs? What factors should they consider, including family health history and financial implications, when making their decisions?

Medical Plan Selection: ExxonMobil offers Aetna POS II and network-only options, allowing employees to choose between plans based on cost, coverage, and provider access. Employees should assess their family's healthcare needs, financial situation, and preferred providers when selecting the most appropriate plan​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

For ExxonMobil employees nearing retirement, what resources are available to help them understand the nuances of health benefits coordination through Medicare and their ExxonMobil coverage? How can they best navigate this transition, and what checkpoints should they be aware of to ensure they remain compliant with company policies during retirement?

Retirement Health Benefits and Medicare: ExxonMobil offers resources to help employees coordinate health benefits with Medicare upon retirement. Employees nearing retirement should explore their options through the Your Total Rewards portal and ensure compliance with company policies during the transition​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

What financial education resources does ExxonMobil provide to employees to promote informed decision-making about their retirement savings and benefits? Can you detail how programs like the Financial Fitness Program enable employees to strategically manage their finances and plan for retirement?

Financial Education Resources: ExxonMobil's Financial Fitness Program, provided in collaboration with Ernst & Young, helps employees manage their finances with resources such as EY Navigate and personalized financial planning. This program supports informed decision-making about retirement and savings strategies​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

As part of the benefits provided by ExxonMobil, how does the company facilitate employee participation in volunteer programs and charitable activities through the ExxonMobil Foundation? How can employees engage with these initiatives while also balancing their work commitments?

Volunteer Programs: Through the ExxonMobil Foundation, employees can engage in charitable activities via the Volunteer Involvement Program (VIP), which offers grants to nonprofits based on time spent volunteering. Participation in these programs is flexible, enabling employees to balance work commitments with volunteer efforts​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

How can ExxonMobil employees get in touch with benefits representatives to address specific questions about their retirement and savings plans? What are the recommended channels and best times to reach out for assistance to ensure they receive timely and relevant information about their options?

Contacting Benefits Representatives: Employees can reach out to the ExxonMobil Benefits Service Center at 833-776-9966 during business hours (8 a.m. to 4 p.m. CST) for assistance with retirement and savings plan questions. The Your Total Rewards portal also offers 24/7 access for reviewing and managing benefits​(ExxonMobil_2024_ExxonMo…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.
ExxonMobil offers a traditional defined benefit pension plan that provides a monthly retirement benefit. Employees can choose between a lump-sum payment or a monthly annuity. The plan calculates benefits based on final average pay and years of service.
Layoffs and Restructuring: ExxonMobil announced plans to lay off approximately 1,900 employees in 2024 as part of its ongoing restructuring efforts. These layoffs are aimed at improving cost efficiency and adapting to market changes amidst fluctuating oil prices (Sources: MarketScreener, Nasdaq). Facility Closures: The company is closing its Clinton, New Jersey facility, leading to the loss of hundreds of jobs. Most affected employees are being offered roles at the Houston headquarters (Source: ROI-NJ). Operational Strategy: The restructuring is part of ExxonMobil's broader strategy to consolidate its North American research and technology operations in Houston, which is expected to enhance research capabilities and drive long-term growth (Source: ROI-NJ).
ExxonMobil provides RSUs that vest over time, offering employees shares upon vesting. They also grant stock options, allowing employees to buy shares at a set price.
ExxonMobil offers a comprehensive benefits package that addresses a wide range of employee needs. For 2023, the company continued to provide robust health insurance options, including various medical, dental, and vision plans. These plans offer extensive coverage for preventive care, major dental services, and comprehensive vision care, including allowances for lenses and frames or contact lenses. Notably, the medical plans also cover telemedicine services, second opinion services, and enhanced fertility benefits. This reflects ExxonMobil's commitment to ensuring its employees have access to high-quality healthcare options that cater to their specific needs. In 2024, ExxonMobil has introduced several enhancements to its benefits offerings. The Employee Health Advisory Program provides professional counseling services for mental health issues, including anxiety, depression, and family conflicts, in a confidential environment. Additionally, the company continues to support employees through a pre-tax spending plan, allowing them to make tax-free contributions to cover eligible health care and dependent care expenses. These benefits are particularly relevant in today's economic and political climate, where managing healthcare costs and ensuring mental well-being are critical. ExxonMobil's focus on comprehensive and flexible healthcare benefits underscores its commitment to supporting the overall well-being of its employees.
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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for ExxonMobil at p.o .box 64111 Spring, TX 77387-4111; or by calling them at 832-624-6731.

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/pension-plan-2022.pdf - Page 5, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/pension-plan-2023.pdf - Page 12, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/pension-plan-2024.pdf - Page 15, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/401k-plan-2022.pdf - Page 8, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/401k-plan-2023.pdf - Page 22, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/401k-plan-2024.pdf - Page 28, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/rsu-plan-2022.pdf - Page 20, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/rsu-plan-2023.pdf - Page 14, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/rsu-plan-2024.pdf - Page 17, https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/documents/healthcare-plan-2022.pdf - Page 23

*Please see disclaimer for more information

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