'For Nationwide employees, the rapid market rebound in 2025 reinforces the value of disciplined, research-driven decision-making—especially when considering sector trends like tech's recovery and the structural challenges in consumer staples.” – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
'The 2025 market turnaround highlights how Nationwide employees can benefit from focusing on long-term sector dynamics—such as technology’s renewed potential—rather than reacting to short-term volatility.” – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
In this article we will discuss:
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How the rebound in U.S. equities may still offer opportunities for long-term investors.
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Why technology stocks are regaining momentum following a valuation reset.
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The structural challenges facing consumer staples despite their traditional defensive appeal.
The first seven months of 2025 showcased how difficult it can be to time investment decisions during a year of sharp economic pivots and sudden market reversals. Early in the year, global tariff announcements sent shockwaves through markets, causing the S&P 500® to fall 19% from its mid-February highs, 1 narrowly sidestepping bear market territory. But recovery followed quickly. The index rebounded roughly 30% from its April 8 low. 2 For Nationwide employees with exposure to equity markets, this swift rebound highlights the challenge of reacting to short-term volatility instead of maintaining a long-term perspective.
While trade-related uncertainty remains, a broader question has emerged: Has the rebound outpaced fundamental growth? Some analysts believe market valuations are stretched, while others—such as Fidelity’s Denise Chisholm—suggest that specific sectors, particularly technology, still present potential opportunities. Chisholm, Fidelity’s Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, points to three investing themes that could help Nationwide retirees and employees make more informed decisions as the year continues. 3
1. U.S. Stocks Could Keep Outperforming
Following the April rally, many began scrutinizing market valuations. Despite concerns that stocks were overvalued before the downturn and may be even more so now, Chisholm’s historical analysis of 19%+ declines shows limited connection between elevated valuations during pullbacks and future performance. This insight may be particularly useful for Nationwide employees with retirement accounts invested in broad-market indexes.
A more revealing factor is corporate earnings expectations. “Net earnings revisions”—the difference between upward and downward analyst estimates—fell into the bottom 25% of their historical range in April. 4 Historically, this has been followed by an average 12% S&P 500 gain over the next 12 months, according to Haver Analytics and Fidelity data from 1977 through May 2025. 4
Another encouraging sign is the increase in real personal income earlier this year. For those at Nationwide planning their post-career financial strategies, rising consumer income tends to support stronger corporate earnings. In fact, when real personal income rises, corporate earnings growth over the following year is similarly positive 85% of the time. 4
Credit markets offer another signal. The narrow spread between high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries—often viewed as a proxy for investor sentiment—suggests continued optimism. For Nationwide stakeholders tracking market health, this may reflect investor confidence in corporate profitability and credit conditions.
2. Technology Stocks May Take the Lead Again
Tech stocks experienced a correction in early 2025 after years of strong performance. This adjustment pushed their valuations—based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio relative to the broader S&P 500—into the historical median range. Historically, when this level is reached, tech stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by 5% over the following 12 months. 4
For Nationwide professionals considering sector allocation, this valuation reset may indicate an opening in technology. According to research from Fidelity and FactSet, when speculative tech names—typically viewed as high-risk—drop into the lowest 25% of historical valuations, the entire tech sector has a 79% chance of outperforming the broader market over the following year. 4
This combination of historical probability and relative value makes the tech sector worth close attention. The reset in prices could renew investor interest, especially if upcoming earnings results outperform expectations. Nationwide employees managing portfolios may discover longer-term growth potential in parts of the market that have experienced recalibrated valuations.
3. The Underperformance of Consumer Staples
Consumer staples—companies producing essentials like food and household items—are often considered more stable holdings. During the early 2025 market dip, many investors shifted toward these stocks in search of consistency. However, Nationwide retirees evaluating income-focused portfolios may want to reassess the sector’s outlook.
Although valuations have returned to historical medians, consumer staples have not historically outperformed unless valuations reach the lower quartile. Data since 2000 show weak performance from mid-range valuation levels, especially compared to the tech sector’s behavior.
In addition, profit margins in the sector have steadily declined. By early 2025, margins were near two-decade lows, which may limit earnings growth. For Nationwide employees reviewing income strategies in retirement, these long-term pressures may reduce the appeal of the sector—even if consumer demand remains relatively consistent during downturns.
A Prospective View for Nationwide Employee Portfolios
After a dramatic rebound in 2025, many investors are weighing their next steps. For Nationwide employees balancing growth potential and downside exposure, historical trends may offer useful insights. The mid-range valuations in technology, rising real income, and contrarian earnings signals suggest that U.S. equities may still provide room for further advancement.
Sector allocation decisions may play an increasingly important role. Technology could benefit from valuation resets and performance trends, while consumer staples may face continued margin pressure. Nationwide retirees exploring future-focused allocations may want to pay attention to these sector-specific developments.
Chisholm’s findings offer a research-based perspective to assess these shifts. She emphasizes evaluating valuation resets, earnings expectations, and credit spreads rather than reacting to market headlines. For Nationwide stakeholders, this measured approach may offer a clearer path through ongoing market uncertainty.
In June 2025, J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlighted dividend-paying stocks—particularly in health care and utilities—as appealing options during late-cycle environments due to their consistent cash flow. 5 They also noted that infrastructure investments may help offset inflation risks, and that short-duration bonds yielding over 5% can provide income while limiting interest rate sensitivity. These three ideas—dividends, infrastructure, and short-term bonds—may contribute to a more balanced approach for Nationwide retiree portfolios.
Key Takeaway for Nationwide Employees
Explore the major investment themes of 2025: U.S. stock momentum, shifting tech valuations, and structural concerns in consumer staples. Learn how trends in net earnings revisions, bond spreads, and income growth can inform longer-term planning. Historical data from Haver Analytics, FactSet, and Bloomberg, along with Chisholm’s sector analysis, may provide meaningful context for Nationwide employees navigating today’s complex market environment.
Analogy:
Today’s investment environment for Nationwide employees is like planning a well-balanced retirement meal: short-duration bonds are the refreshing drink—low volatility and steady; infrastructure funds are the hearty side—resilient in tough economic climates; and dividend stocks serve as the main course—reliable and consistent. Like a nourishing plate, each component plays a distinct role in adjusting to evolving market conditions.
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Sources:
1. Yahoo!Finance. ' Analyst resets S&P 500 forecast for rest of 2025 ,' by Todd Campbell, 20 July 2025.
2. Quoniam. ' Market commentary equities: Low single-digit returns in 2025, but massive undercurrents ,' by Mark Frielinghaus, 10 July 2025.
3. Fidelity. ' 4 investing ideas for the rest of 2025 ,' by Denise Chisolm, 4 June 2025.
4. Fidelity. ' Q3 2025 Quarterly Sector and Investment Research Update ,' by Denise Chisolm, 28 July 2025.
5. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ' Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025: Comfortably Uncomfortable ,' by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., 5 May 2025.
What are the unique benefits provided by the Nationwide Retirement Plan that differentiate it from other retirement plans? How does Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company ensure the plan meets the regulatory requirements while still addressing the needs of its employees?
Unique Benefits of Nationwide Retirement Plan: Nationwide’s Retirement Plan provides both a Final Average Pay (FAP) Benefit and an Account Balance Benefit, which allows flexibility for employees hired at different times. The plan is qualified under Section 401(a) of the Internal Revenue Code, ensuring compliance with federal tax laws. Nationwide ensures regulatory compliance while addressing employee needs through ongoing contributions, actuarial evaluations, and options like lifetime income for retirees and survivors.
How can employee participation in the Nationwide Retirement Plan impact their overall retirement savings strategy? What role does the defined benefit pension plan play in conjunction with Social Security and personal savings for employees of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company?
Employee Participation Impact: Participation in the Nationwide Retirement Plan enhances employees' overall retirement savings strategy by integrating Social Security, personal savings, and the defined benefit plan. The FAP benefit, based on final average compensation, works alongside Social Security to offer a stable income, while the Account Balance Benefit adds flexibility in retirement income options.
What options do employees of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company have when they retire before the age of 55, and how do these options compare to those available for employees who retire after reaching that age? What factors influence the choices employees make regarding timing and type of benefit commencement?
Retirement Options Before and After Age 55: Employees retiring before age 55 can start receiving their benefits immediately, but they face early retirement reductions. Those retiring after age 55 may choose from more benefit options like annuities and receive higher, less-reduced payments. The choice to retire before or after age 55 depends on factors like financial need and health, and affects the timing and size of the benefit commencement(Nationwide Mutual Insur…).
In what ways does the structure of the benefit formulas—Final Average Pay (FAP) Benefit and Account Balance Benefit—affect the retirement income of employees at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company? What are the implications for employees considering different retirement timings?
Effect of Benefit Formulas on Income: The FAP Benefit is based on Final Average Pay and Social Security coordination, offering a larger benefit for those with higher incomes, while the Account Balance Benefit is based on accumulated contributions and interest. The timing of retirement plays a crucial role in determining income, as early retirement results in reduced benefits, while late retirement allows for continued service accrual and potentially higher payouts.
How does the Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company address spousal benefits under the retirement plan, particularly regarding the Qualified Preretirement Survivor Annuity (QPSA)? What are the actions that employees need to take to ensure their spouses receive these benefits?
Spousal Benefits and QPSA: Nationwide offers a Qualified Preretirement Survivor Annuity (QPSA) to ensure that a spouse receives benefits if the participant dies before retirement. Employees must name their spouse as a beneficiary or obtain notarized consent if they wish to designate someone else. To ensure the spouse receives the QPSA, employees must take the appropriate legal steps outlined in the plan.
What steps must employees of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company take to successfully file a claim for retirement benefits, and what is the timeframe for processing these claims? How does the company ensure that employees understand their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA)?
Steps to File a Claim for Retirement Benefits: To file a claim, employees must notify the Nationwide Retirement Center at Fidelity and submit the required paperwork. Claims are typically processed within 60 days, and Nationwide ensures that employees understand their rights under ERISA through detailed communications and support from Fidelity Investments.
What are the situations that might cause delays or loss of benefits for employees retiring from Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company? How can employees proactively manage these risks to ensure they receive their entitled benefits?
Situations Leading to Delays or Loss of Benefits: Delays can occur if employees fail to submit necessary paperwork, keep their contact information updated, or if they are not vested at the time of severance. Employees should proactively manage these risks by completing forms timely and maintaining communication with the Plan Administrator to avoid disruptions in benefits.
Can employees at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company alter their distribution choices after commencing their retirement benefits? What regulatory frameworks influence their ability to change benefit elections, and under what circumstances might these changes be permitted?
Changing Distribution Choices After Retirement: Once retirement benefits commence, changes to distribution elections are limited. For example, lump-sum payments and annuity selections are typically irrevocable after commencement, and spousal consent is required for certain changes. Federal regulations, such as IRS rules, further restrict post-retirement changes in benefit elections(Nationwide Mutual Insur…).
How does the Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company plan for automatic post-retirement benefit increases, and what factors determine the percentage increase? How do these increases impact the long-term financial security of retirees?
Post-Retirement Benefit Increases: Nationwide offers automatic post-retirement benefit increases for participants with service before 1996, with annual increases between 0% and 3% based on fund performance. These increases help to protect retirees’ long-term financial security by adjusting their pension income for inflation.
How can employees contact NDPERS for more information regarding their retirement options, and what specific resources are available for personalized assistance? Clear communication channels and support services are essential for helping employees navigate their retirement planning effectively with NDPERS.
Contacting the Nationwide Retirement Center: Employees can reach the Nationwide Retirement Center at Fidelity by calling 1-800-238-4015 for inquiries about their retirement plan. Fidelity provides detailed support, including benefit estimates, plan information, and assistance with filing claims and selecting benefit distribution options(Nationwide Mutual Insur…).