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3 Surprising Investing Ideas for University of Missouri Employees in 2025

'For University of Missouri employees, the rapid market rebound in 2025 reinforces the value of disciplined, research-driven decision-making—especially when considering sector trends like tech's recovery and the structural challenges in consumer staples.” – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'The 2025 market turnaround highlights how University of Missouri employees can benefit from focusing on long-term sector dynamics—such as technology’s renewed potential—rather than reacting to short-term volatility.” – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

How the rebound in U.S. equities may still offer opportunities for long-term investors.
Why technology stocks are regaining momentum following a valuation reset.
The structural challenges facing consumer staples despite their traditional defensive appeal.

The first seven months of 2025 showcased how difficult it can be to time investment decisions during a year of sharp economic pivots and sudden market reversals. Early in the year, global tariff announcements sent shockwaves through markets, causing the S&P 500® to fall 19% from its mid-February highs, ¹ narrowly sidestepping bear market territory. But recovery followed quickly. The index rebounded roughly 30% from its April 8 low. ² For University of Missouri employees with exposure to equity markets, this swift rebound highlights the challenge of reacting to short-term volatility instead of maintaining a long-term perspective.

While trade-related uncertainty remains, a broader question has emerged: Has the rebound outpaced fundamental growth? Some analysts believe market valuations are stretched, while others—such as Fidelity’s Denise Chisholm—suggest that specific sectors, particularly technology, still present potential opportunities. Chisholm, Fidelity’s Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, points to three investing themes that could help University of Missouri retirees and employees make more informed decisions as the year continues. ³

1. U.S. Stocks Could Keep Outperforming

Following the April rally, many began scrutinizing market valuations. Despite concerns that stocks were overvalued before the downturn and may be even more so now, Chisholm’s historical analysis of 19%+ declines shows limited connection between elevated valuations during pullbacks and future performance. This insight may be particularly useful for University of Missouri employees with retirement accounts invested in broad-market indexes.

A more revealing factor is corporate earnings expectations. “Net earnings revisions”—the difference between upward and downward analyst estimates—fell into the bottom 25% of their historical range in April. ⁴ Historically, this has been followed by an average 12% S&P 500 gain over the next 12 months, according to Haver Analytics and Fidelity data from 1977 through May 2025. ⁴

Another encouraging sign is the increase in real personal income earlier this year. For those at University of Missouri planning their post-career financial strategies, rising consumer income tends to support stronger corporate earnings. In fact, when real personal income rises, corporate earnings growth over the following year is similarly positive 85% of the time. ⁴

Credit markets offer another signal. The narrow spread between high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries—often viewed as a proxy for investor sentiment—suggests continued optimism. For University of Missouri stakeholders tracking market health, this may reflect investor confidence in corporate profitability and credit conditions.

2. Technology Stocks May Take the Lead Again

Tech stocks experienced a correction in early 2025 after years of strong performance. This adjustment pushed their valuations—based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio relative to the broader S&P 500—into the historical median range. Historically, when this level is reached, tech stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by 5% over the following 12 months. ⁴

For University of Missouri professionals considering sector allocation, this valuation reset may indicate an opening in technology. According to research from Fidelity and FactSet, when speculative tech names—typically viewed as high-risk—drop into the lowest 25% of historical valuations, the entire tech sector has a 79% chance of outperforming the broader market over the following year. ⁴

This combination of historical probability and relative value makes the tech sector worth close attention. The reset in prices could renew investor interest, especially if upcoming earnings results outperform expectations. University of Missouri employees managing portfolios may discover longer-term growth potential in parts of the market that have experienced recalibrated valuations.

3. The Underperformance of Consumer Staples

Consumer staples—companies producing essentials like food and household items—are often considered more stable holdings. During the early 2025 market dip, many investors shifted toward these stocks in search of consistency. However, University of Missouri retirees evaluating income-focused portfolios may want to reassess the sector’s outlook.

Although valuations have returned to historical medians, consumer staples have not historically outperformed unless valuations reach the lower quartile. Data since 2000 show weak performance from mid-range valuation levels, especially compared to the tech sector’s behavior.

In addition, profit margins in the sector have steadily declined. By early 2025, margins were near two-decade lows, which may limit earnings growth. For University of Missouri employees reviewing income strategies in retirement, these long-term pressures may reduce the appeal of the sector—even if consumer demand remains relatively consistent during downturns.

A Prospective View for University of Missouri Employee Portfolios

After a dramatic rebound in 2025, many investors are weighing their next steps. For University of Missouri employees balancing growth potential and downside exposure, historical trends may offer useful insights. The mid-range valuations in technology, rising real income, and contrarian earnings signals suggest that U.S. equities may still provide room for further advancement.

Sector allocation decisions may play an increasingly important role. Technology could benefit from valuation resets and performance trends, while consumer staples may face continued margin pressure. University of Missouri retirees exploring future-focused allocations may want to pay attention to these sector-specific developments.

Chisholm’s findings offer a research-based perspective to assess these shifts. She emphasizes evaluating valuation resets, earnings expectations, and credit spreads rather than reacting to market headlines. For University of Missouri stakeholders, this measured approach may offer a clearer path through ongoing market uncertainty.

In June 2025, J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlighted dividend-paying stocks—particularly in health care and utilities—as appealing options during late-cycle environments due to their consistent cash flow. ⁵ They also noted that infrastructure investments may help offset inflation risks, and that short-duration bonds yielding over 5% can provide income while limiting interest rate sensitivity. These three ideas—dividends, infrastructure, and short-term bonds—may contribute to a more balanced approach for University of Missouri retiree portfolios.

Key Takeaway for University of Missouri Employees

Explore the major investment themes of 2025: U.S. stock momentum, shifting tech valuations, and structural concerns in consumer staples. Learn how trends in net earnings revisions, bond spreads, and income growth can inform longer-term planning. Historical data from Haver Analytics, FactSet, and Bloomberg, along with Chisholm’s sector analysis, may provide meaningful context for University of Missouri employees navigating today’s complex market environment.

Analogy:

Today’s investment environment for University of Missouri employees is like planning a well-balanced retirement meal: short-duration bonds are the refreshing drink—low volatility and steady; infrastructure funds are the hearty side—resilient in tough economic climates; and dividend stocks serve as the main course—reliable and consistent. Like a nourishing plate, each component plays a distinct role in adjusting to evolving market conditions.

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Sources:

1. Yahoo!Finance. ' Analyst resets S&P 500 forecast for rest of 2025 ,' by Todd Campbell, 20 July 2025.

2. Quoniam. ' Market commentary equities: Low single-digit returns in 2025, but massive undercurrents ,' by Mark Frielinghaus, 10 July 2025.

3. Fidelity. ' 4 investing ideas for the rest of 2025 ,' by Denise Chisolm, 4 June 2025.

4. Fidelity. ' Q3 2025 Quarterly Sector and Investment Research Update ,' by Denise Chisolm, 28 July 2025.

5. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ' Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025: Comfortably Uncomfortable ,' by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., 5 May 2025.

How does the eligibility criteria for the Defined Benefit Retirement Plan at the University of Missouri System differ for Level One and Level Two members, particularly in regard to their hire or rehire dates?

Eligibility Criteria for Level One and Level Two Members: Level One members are employees hired before October 1, 2012, or those rehired before October 1, 2019, who had earned a vested benefit but did not receive a lump sum. Level Two members are those hired or rehired between October 1, 2012, and October 1, 2019, without eligibility for Level One benefits. Employees hired after October 1, 2019, do not accrue service credit under the DB Plan(University of Missouri …).

In what ways do service credits accumulated at the University of Missouri System impact an employee's retirement benefits, and how can employees ensure that they effectively maximize their service credit over the years?

Impact of Service Credits on Retirement Benefits: Service credits are critical in calculating retirement benefits at the University of Missouri System. Employees accumulate service credits based on their years of service, which directly affect their pension calculations. Maximizing service credits involves consistent full-time employment without breaks, as any leave of absence or part-time status may impact the total service credits earned(University of Missouri …)(University of Missouri …).

What are the various options available to employees at the University of Missouri System for receiving their retirement benefits upon reaching normal retirement age, and how do these options influence long-term financial planning for retirement?

Retirement Benefit Options: Upon reaching normal retirement age, employees can choose between a Single Life Annuity or a Joint and Survivor Annuity, both with options for lump-sum payments of 10%, 20%, or 30% of the actuarial present value. These choices influence monthly payout amounts, and selecting a lump sum reduces future monthly benefits proportionally(University of Missouri …).

With respect to the University of Missouri System's Defined Benefit Plan, how are employees' contributions structured, and what implications does this have for their overall retirement savings strategy?

Employee Contributions: Employees contribute 1% of their salary up to $50,000 and 2% for earnings beyond that threshold. This structure helps fund the DB Plan, with the University covering the majority of the cost. Employees need to factor in these contributions as part of their overall retirement savings strategy(University of Missouri …).

How can employees at the University of Missouri System assess their eligibility for early retirement benefits, and what considerations should be taken into account when planning for an early retirement?

Early Retirement Eligibility: Employees may retire early if they meet specific criteria: at least 10 years of service credit for ages 55–60 or at least 5 years of service credit for ages 60–65. Early retirees will receive a reduced benefit to account for the longer payout period(University of Missouri …).

What tax implications should employees of the University of Missouri System be aware of when it comes to distributions from their retirement plans, and how can they effectively navigate these implications?

Tax Implications of Retirement Plan Distributions: Distributions from the University of Missouri System’s DB Plan are subject to federal taxes. Employees can mitigate tax burdens by electing to roll over lump-sum distributions to a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, to avoid immediate tax liability(University of Missouri …).

What are the policies regarding the continuation of benefits for employees who leave the University of Missouri System, particularly for those who are not vested or are classified as non-vested members?

Non-Vested Employee Policies: Employees who leave the University before vesting in the DB Plan (fewer than 5 years of service) are not eligible for retirement benefits but can receive a refund of their contributions. These non-vested employees must decide whether to receive their refunded contributions as a lump sum or through a rollover to another retirement account(University of Missouri …).

How might changes in employment status, such as taking a leave of absence or returning to work after a break, affect the service credit calculation for an employee at the University of Missouri System?

Impact of Employment Status Changes on Service Credit: Employees who take leaves of absence or return after breaks in employment may experience reductions in service credit. However, certain types of leave, such as military service or medical leave, may allow employees to continue earning service credit(University of Missouri …)(University of Missouri …).

In the event of an employee's death prior to retirement, what benefits are available to their survivors under the University of Missouri System's Defined Benefit Plan, and how can members ensure their wishes are respected?

Survivor Benefits: In the event of an employee’s death before retirement, survivors may be eligible for either a lump sum or monthly payments. Employees can designate beneficiaries to ensure that their wishes are honored, providing financial protection for dependents(University of Missouri …).

How can an employee at the University of Missouri System contact the Human Resources Service Center to obtain personalized assistance regarding their retirement options and any inquiries related to their retirement plan details? These questions require detailed answers and are designed to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of retirement processes and options for employees of the University of Missouri System.

Contacting HR for Assistance: Employees can contact the Human Resources Service Center for personalized assistance regarding their retirement options by emailing hrservicecenter@umsystem.edu or visiting the myHR portal for further details(University of Missouri …).