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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for 3M Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for 3M: 3M does not directly provide healthcare services but has a significant stake in the healthcare sector through its Health Care business, which will operate as Solventum following its spin-off. Solventum focuses on various healthcare innovations, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and health information systems, positioning itself as a critical player in improving patient outcomes and healthcare delivery. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As the healthcare landscape faces an impending crisis, projections indicate that healthcare costs may surge significantly in 2026, with some states expecting premium hikes surpassing 60% - primarily as a result of the potential expiration of enhanced federal subsidies for ACA plans. This situation, compounded by rising medical costs and aggressive rate increases from leading insurers, could lead to a staggering average out-of-pocket premium increase of 75% for 92% of marketplace enrollees, making affordable healthcare increasingly elusive for millions. Stakeholders will need to navigate these changes carefully to mitigate financial impacts on consumers. Click here to learn more

'3M employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'3M employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

Given the recent decision by 3M to freeze its pension plans for non-union employees effective December 31, 2028, how should employees prepare for this significant change? What resources and strategies can they explore to ensure they are financially secure during retirement, considering the shift from traditional pension benefits at 3M to 401(k) plans?

Preparation for Pension Freeze at 3M: As 3M plans to freeze its pension plans for non-union employees by the end of 2028, employees should begin by assessing their current pension benefits and understanding how much they will have accrued by the freeze date. It's advisable for employees to consult financial advisors to discuss alternative retirement savings strategies, such as IRAs or other investment vehicles. Additionally, employees should take advantage of the company's matching contributions to 401(k) plans and consider increasing their contributions to maximize their retirement savings.

With 3M transitioning from a pension-based retirement system to a 401(k) structure, what implications does this have for employee contributions and investment options? How can 3M employees utilize the flexibility offered by 401(k) plans to align with their individual retirement goals, and what specific considerations should they keep in mind when selecting investments?

Implications for Employee Contributions at 3M: With 3M transitioning to a 401(k) model, employees will have more control over their retirement investments. This shift means that employees need to be more proactive in selecting investment options that align with their retirement goals. Employees should consider factors like risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals when selecting investments. Utilizing tools and resources offered by 3M, such as financial planning services and investment education workshops, can help employees make informed decisions.

How will the freeze on accrual of pension benefits affect the retirement planning process for employees who have been with 3M for many years compared to newer employees? What unique challenges might long-term employees face as they transition from relying on defined benefits to managing their retirement accounts through 3M?

Impact on Long-term vs. New Employees: Long-term 3M employees who have accrued significant pension benefits might find the transition challenging as they shift from a defined benefit to a defined contribution plan. These employees should review their projected pension payouts and consider additional savings or investment strategies to cover any shortfalls. Newer employees might be less affected as they have less accrued in the pension plan and potentially more time to adjust their savings strategies in the 401(k) plan.

What educational resources are available through 3M to assist employees in understanding their retirement plan options following the pension freeze? How can employees leverage these resources to make informed decisions about their future and ensure that they understand the differences between the pension plan and their new 401(k) options?

Educational Resources at 3M: 3M is likely to offer a range of educational resources to help employees understand their new retirement plan options. Employees should look out for seminars, webinars, and one-on-one counseling opportunities that can provide guidance on navigating the changes. The HR department at 3M will also be a valuable resource for accessing personalized advice and detailed explanations of the differences between the old pension plans and the new 401(k) options.

In light of the recent changes to 3M's pension structure, what steps can employees take to maximize their retirement savings over the next five years before the freeze takes effect? What savings strategies are recommended for 3M employees to ensure that they are adequately prepared for retirement given this significant policy change?

How does the decision by 3M to move to a 401(k) retirement model reflect broader trends in the corporate world regarding pension plans? What are the potential benefits and drawbacks of this shift from both the companyâ€™s and the employeesâ€™ perspectives, and how can employees navigate this changing landscape?

Broader Trends in Pension Plans: 3M's decision reflects a broader trend in the corporate world where companies are shifting from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans like 401(k)s. This shift allows companies to reduce the volatility of pension liabilities on their balance sheets and provides employees with potentially higher returns on their retirement savings, albeit with higher risks. Employees need to become more financially literate to navigate this landscape effectively.

What mechanisms does 3M have in place to provide ongoing communication and support regarding the changes to the pension plan? How can employees at 3M stay informed about updates and optimally utilize company meetings or counseling sessions to address their retirement concerns?

Ongoing Communication and Support at 3M: 3M is expected to provide ongoing communication and support to employees regarding the pension changes. Regular updates, FAQs, and dedicated channels for raising concerns, such as HR hotlines or dedicated email addresses, will be crucial. Attending scheduled meetings and participating in counseling sessions can help employees stay informed and prepare adequately for the future.

As the pension plans at 3M are frozen, what options do employees have if they are uncertain about their retirement strategy? How can 3M's HR department assist employees in evaluating their current financial situations and developing customized retirement plans?

Options for Uncertain Employees: For employees uncertain about their retirement strategy post-pension freeze, 3M's HR department can provide significant assistance. HR can offer tools for financial modeling and planning, assist in setting up meetings with financial planners, and provide detailed comparisons of various retirement strategies. Employees should actively seek out these resources and engage with HR to build a personalized retirement plan.

How will the freeze of pension plans impact the overall financial stability of 3M retirees, and what considerations should current employees keep in mind as they anticipate retirement? How does this shift align with 3Mâ€™s commitment to employee welfare and long-term planning for their staff?

Impact on Financial Stability of Retirees: The freeze of the pension plans at 3M could impact the financial stability of retirees, especially those close to retirement who have less time to adjust their savings strategies. Employees should review their anticipated income from the pension plan and assess any potential shortfalls. Diversifying investments and seeking ways to generate additional income during retirement can help mitigate the impact of the pension freeze.

If employees at 3M wish to engage with the company's Human Resources department to gain clarity on the new pension and retirement policy implementations, what is the most effective way to reach out? How can 3M staff gain access to additional support and resources related to their retirement options?

Engaging with HR for Clarity: Employees seeking clarity on the new pension and retirement policies at 3M should reach out to the HR department effectively. Utilizing company-provided channels such as HR portals, direct emails, or scheduled office hours can facilitate better understanding and access to resources. Engaging in open dialogues during HR-led sessions or through direct consultations can help employees gain the necessary support and guidance.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Transition to 401(k) plan, pension freeze by 2028, annuity transfer in 2024 covering $2.5B obligations for 23,000 retirees.

3M offers RSUs to its executives and eligible employees as part of its long-term incentive plan. RSUs vest over time and are intended to align employees' interests with shareholders.