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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Airbnb Employees

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'Airbnb employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Airbnb employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What type of retirement savings plan does Airbnb offer to its employees?

Airbnb offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.

Does Airbnb match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Airbnb provides a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, helping employees maximize their retirement savings.

What is the eligibility requirement for employees to participate in Airbnb's 401(k) plan?

Employees at Airbnb are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specified period of service, typically within the first year of employment.

Can Airbnb employees choose how their 401(k) contributions are invested?

Yes, Airbnb employees can choose from a variety of investment options for their 401(k) contributions based on their individual risk tolerance and retirement goals.

What is the contribution limit for Airbnb employees who participate in the 401(k) plan?

The contribution limit for Airbnb employees is set according to IRS guidelines, which may change annually. Employees should check the current limit for the year.

Does Airbnb allow employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Airbnb allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan.

What happens to an Airbnb employee's 401(k) if they leave the company?

If an Airbnb employee leaves the company, they can roll over their 401(k) balance to another retirement account or leave it in the Airbnb plan, depending on the balance and company policies.

Are there any fees associated with managing the 401(k) plan at Airbnb?

Yes, Airbnb's 401(k) plan may have administrative fees and investment-related fees, which are disclosed to employees in the plan documents.

How often can Airbnb employees change their 401(k) contribution amounts?

Airbnb employees can change their 401(k) contribution amounts during designated enrollment periods or as allowed by the plan throughout the year.

Is there a vesting schedule for the employer match in Airbnb's 401(k) plan?

Yes, Airbnb has a vesting schedule for the employer match, meaning employees must work for a certain period before they fully own the matched contributions.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

This news is crucial due to ongoing economic instability and high inflation, affecting investment strategies. Understanding Airbnb's cost-cutting measures helps investors make informed decisions and highlights the broader trend of tech companies adjusting to economic challenges (TheLayoff.com) (TheLayoff.com) (TheLayoff.com) (TheLayoff.com).

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Airbnb at 888 Brannan Street San Francisco, CA 94103; or by calling them at (415) 800-5959.