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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Ameren Employees

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'Ameren employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Ameren employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the Ameren retirement plan design ensure that employees' benefits under the Union Cash Balance Plan grow over time, and what specific features contribute to this growth? Discuss how amortization methodologies and interest credits are determined for Ameren employees, particularly in relation to age and years of service.

Growth of Benefits: Ameren’s Union Cash Balance Plan ensures growth through annual interest credits and regular credits based on the employee’s age and pensionable earnings. Interest credits are applied at a rate of 5%, subject to change yearly based on Treasury rates plus an additional 1%. Employees also receive regular credits that increase with age, ranging from 3% to 8% of pensionable earnings(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

In what ways can employees of Ameren leverage the various payment methods available to them upon retirement? Elaborate on how the choice between lump-sum payments and annuities impacts their financial planning post-retirement.

Payment Methods: Ameren offers employees flexibility in receiving benefits as a lump sum or annuity. Lump sum payments provide immediate access to all benefits, which can be rolled over into other retirement accounts, while annuities provide steady income for life. Choosing between these affects financial planning by balancing immediate liquidity versus long-term income security(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

What are the implications of leaving Ameren before reaching retirement age, particularly in regard to vesting and benefit access? Discuss the conditions that affect an employee's eligibility and the importance of completing the required years of service.

Leaving Before Retirement: If an employee leaves Ameren before reaching retirement age but has completed three years of service, they are vested and entitled to their full cash balance account. If an employee leaves before vesting, their account is forfeited. Completing the required years of service is critical for retaining benefits(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How does the Ameren Corporation balance contributions to the retirement plan with the need to comply with IRS regulations, specifically with the aim of avoiding a "top heavy" classification? Analyze how this impacts employee benefits and the strategies used by Ameren to ensure compliance.

Compliance with IRS Regulations: Ameren ensures compliance with IRS “top heavy” rules by monitoring the allocation of contributions to avoid excessive benefits going to key employees. If more than 60% of benefits are allocated to key employees, Ameren must provide minimum benefits to non-key employees, impacting overall contributions and plan design(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…)(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

What are the survivor benefits options available under Ameren's Union Cash Balance Plan, and how are these benefits calculated for spouses and non-spouse beneficiaries? Provide details on how varying age differences between an employee and their beneficiary affect these calculations.

Survivor Benefits: Under the Union Cash Balance Plan, a spouse beneficiary receives survivor benefits either as a lump sum or lifetime annuity. Non-spouse beneficiaries receive a lump sum. The calculation of survivor benefits adjusts based on the age difference between the employee and the beneficiary(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How do the changes in IRS limits for retirement accounts in 2024 potentially affect employees of Ameren when planning for retirement? Discuss the strategic considerations Ameren employees should take into account in relation to contribution limits and catch-up provisions.

IRS Limits and 2024 Changes: Changes to IRS contribution limits in 2024 may affect employees by altering the maximum they can contribute to retirement accounts, including catch-up provisions for those over 50. Ameren employees should monitor these changes to maximize their retirement savings strategies(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

In what ways does the Ameren Corporation's retirement plan administration ensure transparency and participant rights, particularly under ERISA? Explore the various rights employees have regarding access to plan documents and the recourse available in the event of a benefit claim denial.

ERISA Rights and Transparency: Ameren ensures transparency and adherence to ERISA, giving employees the right to access plan documents, including the SPD and financial reports. In case of benefit claim denials, employees can appeal and, if necessary, pursue legal action(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How can Ameren employees contact the company to learn more about their retirement benefits and navigate the complexities of the Union Cash Balance Plan? Discuss the available resources and support channels for employees to gain clarity on their benefits.

Contact for Plan Information: Ameren employees can contact the company through its pension benefits line at 877.7my.Ameren for details on retirement benefits and support with navigating the Union Cash Balance Plan. Online resources like myAmeren Pension Benefits also provide account information and assistance(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

What specific factors influence the calculation of interest credits in the Union Cash Balance Plan, and how do these credits affect the overall retirement savings of Ameren employees? Analyze the importance of understanding these factors in relation to future financial security.

Interest Credits: Interest credits are determined based on a fixed rate (5%) or the sum of Treasury Constant Maturity rates plus an additional percentage, ensuring steady account growth. Understanding how these credits accumulate is essential for predicting future retirement savings(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How does the flexibility provided in the Ameren retirement plan enhance employee satisfaction and encourage long-term retention? Discuss the impact of features such as portability of benefits and options for account growth on employee engagement.

Flexibility and Retention: The portability of benefits and the ability to choose between lump sum or annuity payments enhances employee satisfaction and retention. Employees can take their vested account balance if they leave Ameren, encouraging long-term engagement(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

News: Ameren has announced a major restructuring plan involving the reduction of its workforce by 5% and a review of its pension benefits structure. The company is also implementing changes to its 401(k) plan, including reducing matching contributions to align with cost-saving measures.
Importance: Addressing this news is crucial due to the current economic uncertainty, which affects investment decisions and tax planning. The reduction in benefits and pensions could impact employees' retirement planning and financial stability, making it essential to stay informed about these changes. Additionally, the restructuring may influence Ameren's stock performance and investor sentiment in the broader market.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Ameren at 1901 Chouteau Avenue St. Louis, MO 63103; or by calling them at (800) 755-5000.