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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for American Express Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for American Express American Express employees typically receive healthcare benefits through their employer-sponsored health plans rather than the individual marketplace. The company's health insurance offerings are generally provided through major insurers, with options varying by location and employee needs. It is essential for employees to review their specific plan details to understand coverage and benefits. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases for 2026 In 2026, health insurance premiums for plans purchased through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace are poised for significant increases, with some states reporting hikes of over 60%. A perfect storm of factors is driving this surge, including expiring enhanced federal premium subsidies and soaring medical costs. If these subsidies aren't renewed, a considerable majority of marketplace enrollees could face out-of-pocket premium increases exceeding 75%. This financial pressure will likely push many individuals and families, particularly those reliant on ACA coverage, to reassess their healthcare options and explore alternative strategies to manage costs effectively Click here to learn more

'American Express employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'American Express employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does American Express ensure the adequacy of retiree medical coverage options for employees, especially in aligning with the current healthcare needs specific to its retirees? What factors does American Express consider when determining if changes to the retiree medical plan are necessary, particularly concerning federal and state regulations?

Comparison of American Airlines' 401(k) Plan to Others in the Airline Industry: American Airlines' Super Saver 401(k) plan typically includes employer matching contributions and a variety of investment options, which is common across major airlines. However, the specific matching percentages and investment fund choices may vary, so it's important for employees to compare these details to other airlines to determine where they can maximize their benefits.

In what circumstances can employees of American Express change or cancel their retiree medical coverage? What procedures does American Express recommend to ensure that changes in status or eligibility do not result in gaps in health insurance coverage?

Historical Changes After Bankruptcy: Employees should note that after American Airlines’ Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, there may have been changes to retirement plans, such as revised matching contribution rates or plan restructuring. Current employees need to understand how these changes affect their retirement savings and future benefits.

As American Express continues to evolve its healthcare offerings, how does the company assess employee satisfaction regarding retiree medical plan options? What mechanisms does American Express use to gather feedback from retirees about their medical plans, and how does this feedback inform future plan design?

Financial Planning Resources: American Airlines probably offers resources like financial counseling, retirement calculators, and online planning tools to help employees assess their retirement readiness. Employees can access these resources through HR or their benefits portal to make informed decisions about their future.

What should American Express retirees know about their rights under ERISA concerning their retiree medical benefits? How does American Express communicate these rights to its employees to ensure awareness and understanding during the transition to retirement?

Maximizing Contributions: Employees should ensure they contribute the maximum allowable by the IRS, currently $22,500 per year (2024 limit), or $30,000 if age 50 or older, to maximize their tax benefits and company match. Understanding the annual contribution limits helps employees avoid over-contributing while still taking full advantage of their plan.

How can employees of American Express contact the company for more information regarding their retiree medical plan options? What specific resources or contact points does American Express offer for retirees seeking detailed guidance on medical benefits?

Contacting HR or Benefits Administration: Employees can typically contact American Airlines’ HR or benefits administration through a dedicated helpline or online portal to inquire about the Super Saver 401(k) plan or other retirement-related concerns. Timely communication ensures employees receive the assistance needed for a smooth retirement process.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

American Express offers a Defined Benefit Pension Plan and a 401(k) plan with company match. The pension plan provides a monthly retirement benefit based on years of service and salary. The 401(k) plan includes various investment options and financial planning resources.

American Express announced a restructuring plan in 2024 involving significant layoffs and changes to employee benefits. The company aims to streamline operations and cut costs in response to economic pressures. The restructuring includes adjustments to pension and 401(k) plans, focusing on reducing long-term liabilities.

American Express provides RSUs to its executives and key employees. RSUs typically vest over a three to four-year period, promoting long-term goals and company loyalty.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for American Express at 200 Vesey Street New York, NY 10285; or by calling them at (212) 640-2000.