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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for American Water Works Employees

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'American Water Works employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'American Water Works employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What type of retirement savings plan does American Water Works offer to its employees?

American Water Works offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.

How can employees of American Water Works enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees of American Water Works can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company’s HR portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does American Water Works match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, American Water Works provides a matching contribution to employee 401(k) plan contributions, subject to certain limits.

What is the maximum contribution limit for the American Water Works 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for the American Water Works 401(k) plan is determined by IRS guidelines, which may change annually.

Can employees of American Water Works take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, American Water Works allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to the plan’s terms and conditions.

What investment options are available in the American Water Works 401(k) plan?

The American Water Works 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles.

When can employees of American Water Works start withdrawing from their 401(k) accounts?

Employees of American Water Works can start withdrawing from their 401(k) accounts at age 59½, or earlier under certain circumstances.

Is there a vesting schedule for employer contributions in the American Water Works 401(k) plan?

Yes, American Water Works has a vesting schedule for employer contributions, which determines how much of the employer match employees are entitled to based on their years of service.

How often can employees of American Water Works change their 401(k) contribution amounts?

Employees of American Water Works can change their 401(k) contribution amounts at any time, subject to plan rules.

Does American Water Works provide educational resources for employees regarding their 401(k) plan?

Yes, American Water Works provides educational resources and tools to help employees understand their 401(k) plan and make informed investment decisions.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

American Water Works announced a significant restructuring that includes layoffs and a reorganization of its pension plan. This is part of a broader effort to streamline operations and reduce costs.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for American Water Works at 1025 Laurel Oak Road Voorhees, NJ 8043; or by calling them at (856) 346-8200.