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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for ArcBest Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for ArcBest ArcBest provides health insurance through a partnership with multiple insurance carriers, primarily using the services of UnitedHealthcare (UHC) along with several other insurers depending on the specific plan options available to their employees. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, ArcBest employees and retirees may face significant healthcare cost increases as marketplace premiums are projected to surge, with some states experiencing hikes of more than 60%. The anticipated expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies poses a crucial risk, potentially leading to a staggering 75% rise in out-of-pocket premiums for many enrollees. As employers, including ArcBest, reconsider their benefit structures amidst rising medical costs and shrinking wage growth, employees should prepare for possible changes in deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums. This evolving landscape underscores the importance of early planning and informed decision-making in navigating the forthcoming financial challenges related to healthcare coverage. Click here to learn more

'ArcBest employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'ArcBest employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the ArcBest 401(k) plan?

The ArcBest 401(k) plan is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck on a tax-deferred basis to help secure their financial future.

How can employees enroll in the ArcBest 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the ArcBest 401(k) plan through the company’s benefits portal during open enrollment or within 30 days of their hire date.

Does ArcBest match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, ArcBest offers a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees grow their retirement savings.

What is the maximum contribution limit for the ArcBest 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for the ArcBest 401(k) plan follows the IRS guidelines, which may change annually. Employees should check the latest IRS limits for the current year.

When can employees start contributing to the ArcBest 401(k) plan?

Employees at ArcBest can start contributing to the 401(k) plan after they have completed their eligibility period, typically within their first month of employment.

What investment options are available in the ArcBest 401(k) plan?

The ArcBest 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

Can employees take loans against their ArcBest 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees may have the option to take loans against their ArcBest 401(k) plan, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan document.

What happens to my ArcBest 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave ArcBest, you can choose to roll over your 401(k) balance to another retirement account, leave it in the ArcBest plan (if eligible), or cash it out, though cashing out may incur taxes and penalties.

How does ArcBest ensure the security of my 401(k) savings?

ArcBest takes the security of your 401(k) savings seriously by partnering with reputable financial institutions and implementing strong data protection measures.

Are there any fees associated with the ArcBest 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be administrative fees associated with the ArcBest 401(k) plan, which are disclosed in the plan documents provided to employees.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

ArcBest announced a strategic restructuring plan aimed at streamlining operations and improving efficiency. This plan includes workforce reductions across various departments. The company also plans to make adjustments to its employee benefits package to align with the new operational model.