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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Arconic Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Arconic Arconic, a leading provider of aluminum and aerospace products, collaborates with various insurance companies to offer healthcare benefits to its employees. The primary healthcare providers that partner with Arconic vary by location and include well-known insurers like UnitedHealthcare, Aetna, and Blue Cross Blue Shield, among others. Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, healthcare costs are expected to rise significantly, impacting employers and employees alike, including those at Arconic. The projected average increase in health benefit costs could reach nearly 8.5%, attributed to a perfect storm of higher medical expenses and the potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies from the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Many employers are responding by considering changes to plan designs that shift more costs to employees. This could lead to out-of-pocket premium increases that may exceed 75% for a large portion of the workforce, making it critical for companies like Arconic to strategize their healthcare offerings effectively to mitigate financial impacts on their employees. Click here to learn more

'Arconic employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Arconic employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What retirement benefits and options are available to employees of Arconic Corporation under the Arconic Corp. Pension Plan A, and how do these benefits change based on factors such as age, service length, and retirement category? Employees of Arconic Corporation should understand their eligibility requirements for normal retirement, early retirement, and disability benefits as outlined in the company's pension plan documentation.

The Arconic Corp. Pension Plan A provides retirement benefits based on a formula that considers average earnings and service length, with normal retirement eligibility at age 65 and at least five years of service. Early retirement is available at age 55 with 10 years of service, with benefits reduced based on actuarial assumptions. Disability benefits are available after 10 years of service, and preretirement death benefits offer 50% of accrued benefits to surviving spouses(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

How does the frozen state of benefits and service accruals impact current and future retirees at Arconic Corporation? Employees should evaluate how the freeze, effective April 1, 2018, affects their retirement planning and what measures they can take based on their individual circumstances to optimize their retirement benefits.

The frozen state of benefits and service accruals, effective April 1, 2018, means no new service credits or compensation increases are factored into pension calculations for current employees. This freeze affects retirement planning as employees must now rely on frozen benefits and other savings plans to meet retirement needs. It’s important for employees to reassess their financial goals and consider additional investments to optimize retirement benefits(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

In what ways can Arconic Corporation employees ensure they meet the requirements for spousal benefits outlined in the pension plan, especially regarding preretirement and postretirement scenarios? Understanding the specifics of eligibility and benefits, such as the surviving spouse benefit calculations, is crucial for employees planning for retirement.

To ensure eligibility for spousal benefits, employees need to meet certain requirements. Preretirement surviving spouse benefits require at least five years of service, and postretirement spousal benefits reduce the participant’s monthly benefit by 5%, with 50% of the reduced amount paid to the spouse if the participant dies first. Employees should understand these provisions to plan for their family’s financial security in retirement(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What are the implications of the actuarial assumptions used by Arconic Corporation in valuing its pension obligations, and how do these assumptions affect the funding of the retirement plan? Arconic Corporation employees should examine how changes in interest rates and mortality tables influence the company's ability to meet its pension obligations.

Actuarial assumptions used in Arconic Corp.’s pension valuations, such as interest rates and mortality tables, directly impact the funding of retirement plans. Changes in these assumptions can affect the pension plan’s obligations and the amount of required contributions, making it important for employees to understand how these factors influence the stability and sufficiency of their retirement benefits(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

Can you explain the process by which Arconic Corporation employees can appeal decisions related to their pension benefits, and what support does the company provide during this process? Understanding the proper channels for appeals and the types of documentation required can be vital for employees facing issues with their pension benefits.

Employees can appeal pension benefit decisions through Arconic Corporation’s formal process, which includes submitting an appeal with supporting documentation. The company provides guidelines on what documentation is required, and employees should follow these closely to ensure their case is reviewed thoroughly. The support provided can include detailed responses to clarify benefit calculations and decisions(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What resources are available to Arconic Corporation employees to help them make informed decisions about their retirement benefits, and how can they access these resources efficiently? Employees should know where to find comprehensive materials and support services concerning their retirement plans.

Arconic Corporation offers various resources to assist employees in making informed decisions about their retirement benefits. Employees can access comprehensive plan documents, financial planning tools, and counseling services through the company’s HR department and retirement plan administrators to ensure they fully understand their options(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

How does the Arconic Corporation define "average earnings" for calculating retirement benefits, and what methodologies are in place to ensure accuracy in these calculations? Understanding the basis for average earnings will allow employees to better project their pension benefits and prepare for retirement.

Average earnings, used in calculating retirement benefits, are defined as the average of the five highest consecutive calendar years of compensation within the last ten years for most participants. For certain participants, different rules apply based on service and plan conditions. Employees can review their earnings history to ensure accurate calculations and projections for retirement planning(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What criteria does Arconic Corporation use to determine eligibility for deferred vested benefits, and how can employees maximize their advantages in this area? Employees need to be aware of the vesting schedule and how to plan for potential career transitions while maintaining their benefits.

Eligibility for deferred vested benefits in Arconic Corporation’s plan requires five years of service, and benefits can commence as early as age 55, with reductions based on actuarial calculations. Employees should plan career transitions carefully to maximize their vested benefits, especially when considering leaving the company before retirement(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

How can Arconic Corporation employees prepare for the potential tax implications of their pension benefits upon retirement, especially in light of IRS regulations for 2024? Being informed about tax strategies related to retirement income can significantly enhance retirees' financial wellbeing.

Employees preparing for retirement should understand the tax implications of pension benefits, particularly in light of IRS regulations for 2024. Strategies such as tax deferral and proper timing of distributions can help minimize the tax burden on retirement income, significantly enhancing financial outcomes(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What contact methods does Arconic Corporation provide for employees wishing to learn more about their pension plan details, and how can employees best utilize these methods to get their queries resolved? Understanding the effective ways to communicate with the company for assistance is key for employees navigating their retirement benefits.

Arconic Corporation provides multiple contact methods for pension-related inquiries, including direct access to HR representatives and pension plan administrators. Employees are encouraged to utilize these resources effectively by preparing questions in advance and keeping detailed records of their communications for follow-up and clarity(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Arconic has announced a major restructuring plan that includes significant layoffs across its North American facilities. The restructuring is aimed at streamlining operations and reducing costs amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Additionally, Arconic is revising its pension and 401(k) benefits in response to shifting market conditions and regulatory changes.