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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Arthur J. Gallagher Employees

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'Arthur J. Gallagher employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Arthur J. Gallagher employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How can Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP assist employees in understanding the advantages and disadvantages of cash balance retirement plans compared to traditional pension plans, and what factors should employees consider when determining which plan might be more beneficial for their unique financial situations within Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP?

Understanding the advantages and disadvantages of cash balance plans: Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP helps employees understand the benefits of cash balance retirement plans by comparing them to traditional pension plans. Cash balance plans offer higher contribution limits and more retirement savings while also reducing tax liability. However, employees must consider that cash balance plans distribute benefits evenly across all working years, which could lead to lower benefits than traditional pension plans that focus on the highest earning years(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

As an employee of Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP, what specific criteria should individuals meet to be eligible for participation in a cash balance retirement plan, and how does Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP ensure compliance with these criteria to maintain the planâ€™s integrity?

Eligibility for participation in a cash balance plan: Employees at Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP must meet specific criteria to participate in cash balance retirement plans. These criteria typically involve employer contributions of 5-8% of the employee's salary. The company ensures compliance with contribution regulations by maintaining consistent cash flow to meet the annual contribution requirements(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

What are the current IRS contribution limits for cash balance retirement plans in 2024, and how does Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP implement these limits to maximize the retirement savings of its employees, particularly those nearing retirement age or with higher incomes?

IRS contribution limits in 2024: The IRS contribution limit for cash balance plans in 2024 is over $200,000 for participants aged 60 or over. Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP implements these limits by allowing employees to contribute significant amounts, especially those nearing retirement, helping them maximize their retirement savings while reducing their tax burden(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

In what ways can employees of Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP expect their retirement benefits to be calculated under a cash balance pension plan, and how do the different factors affecting this calculation impact long-term financial planning for employees?

Retirement benefits calculation under a cash balance plan: Retirement benefits in a cash balance plan at Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP are calculated based on the percentage of the employee’s salary credited to their account each year, plus an interest credit. This structure allows employees to plan for long-term financial stability, although it may result in lower overall retirement benefits compared to traditional pension plans due to the even distribution of contributions(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

What steps does Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP take to communicate updates or changes in cash balance retirement plan regulations, and how can employees stay informed about their rights and obligations under these plans?

Communication about plan updates: Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP regularly communicates updates and changes in cash balance retirement plan regulations through company-wide communications and financial advising services. Employees are encouraged to stay informed by contacting the company’s financial advisors or reviewing regulatory updates to understand their rights and obligations(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

Can you elaborate on the specific tax benefits associated with cash balance retirement plans that are offered by Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP, and how these benefits compare to those available through other retirement plans?

Tax benefits of cash balance plans: Cash balance retirement plans at Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP offer significant tax benefits by allowing for higher contribution limits than traditional 401(k) plans. These higher limits enable employees to lower their taxable income, making these plans advantageous for employees seeking to minimize tax liabilities and increase retirement savings(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

How does Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP support employees who are considering transitioning from a traditional pension plan to a cash balance retirement plan, and what resources are available to facilitate this decision-making process?

Support for transitioning to a cash balance plan: Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP provides resources and personalized financial advising to employees considering a transition from a traditional pension plan to a cash balance plan. The company ensures that employees understand the benefits and limitations of both plans, offering guidance to facilitate informed decisions(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

What strategies does Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP recommend to employees who are in a position to "catch up" on their retirement contributions, particularly for those over the age of 40, to take full advantage of the higher limits associated with cash balance retirement plans?

Catch-up contributions: Employees over 40 at Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP can take advantage of catch-up contributions due to the higher contribution limits of cash balance plans. The company recommends that older employees maximize these contributions to enhance their retirement savings and benefit from the associated tax advantages(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

How does Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP determine the annual employer contribution rates for its cash balance retirement plan, and what factors influence the sustainability of these contributions in the long-term financial health of the company and its employees?

Annual employer contribution rates: Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP determines the employer contribution rates for cash balance plans based on a percentage of employee salaries, typically ranging from 5-8%. These contributions are influenced by the company’s financial stability and commitment to providing robust retirement benefits for long-term employee financial health(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

If an employee at Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP has additional questions about the cash balance retirement plans and needs further assistance, what are the best ways for them to contact Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP to receive tailored guidance or information?

Contact for further assistance: Employees at Gallagher, Flynn & Company LLP who have additional questions about the cash balance retirement plans can contact the company through their financial advisors or reach out to their local offices for tailored guidance and support. The company’s financial team is available to provide personalized information and assistance as needed(Gallagher_Flynn_Company…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Arthur J. Gallagher recently announced a series of restructuring efforts aimed at streamlining operations and improving efficiency. This includes significant layoffs and changes to employee benefits. Given the current economic volatility and the evolving tax and investment climate, it is crucial to stay informed about these developments to navigate potential impacts on retirement planning and investment strategies.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Arthur J. Gallagher at 2850 Golf Rd Rolling Meadows, IL 60008; or by calling them at +1 847-953-3000.