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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Bank of New York Mellon Employees

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'Bank of New York Mellon employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Bank of New York Mellon employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What types of retirement savings plans does Bank of New York Mellon offer to its employees?

Bank of New York Mellon offers a 401(k) plan as part of its retirement savings options for employees.

How can I enroll in the 401(k) plan at Bank of New York Mellon?

Employees can enroll in the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan through the company’s benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does Bank of New York Mellon provide matching contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Bank of New York Mellon offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees boost their retirement savings.

What is the vesting schedule for the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) matching contributions?

The vesting schedule for Bank of New York Mellon’s matching contributions typically follows a standard schedule, which can be confirmed in the employee handbook or by contacting HR.

Can I change my contribution rate to the 401(k) plan at Bank of New York Mellon?

Yes, employees at Bank of New York Mellon can change their contribution rate to the 401(k) plan at any time, subject to certain guidelines.

What investment options are available in the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan?

The Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles.

How often can I make changes to my investment selections in the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan?

Employees can typically make changes to their investment selections in the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan on a regular basis, often daily or monthly.

Is there a loan provision available in the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan?

Yes, Bank of New York Mellon allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to certain conditions and limits.

What happens to my 401(k) account if I leave Bank of New York Mellon?

If you leave Bank of New York Mellon, you have several options for your 401(k) account, including rolling it over to an IRA or a new employer’s plan, or cashing it out.

Are there any fees associated with the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be fees associated with the Bank of New York Mellon 401(k) plan, which can include administrative fees and investment-related fees. Employees can review the fee structure in the plan documents.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Bank of New York Mellon has announced a significant reduction in its workforce, with layoffs expected to affect around 5% of its employees by the end of 2024.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Bank of New York Mellon at 240 Greenwich St New York, NY 10286; or by calling them at +1 212-495-1784.