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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Carvana Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Carvana's healthcare provider is Aetna. As we look ahead to 2026, significant increases in healthcare costs are anticipated, primarily due to the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Without these subsidies, many enrollees could see their out-of-pocket premium payments rise by over 75%, exacerbating the financial burden on consumers. Additionally, insurers are projecting higher medical costs due to inflation and increased utilization of healthcare services, leading to average premium hikes that could reach 20% or more across various states. This combination of factors signals a challenging landscape for Carvana's employees and many other Americans seeking affordable health coverage. Click here to learn more

'Carvana employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Carvana employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Carvana?

Carvana offers a 401(k) plan that allows employees to save for retirement through pre-tax and/or Roth contributions, providing a tax-advantaged way to build savings.

Does Carvana match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Carvana provides a company match on employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, helping employees increase their retirement savings.

How can I enroll in Carvana's 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in Carvana's 401(k) plan through the employee benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What types of investment options are available in Carvana's 401(k) plan?

Carvana's 401(k) plan offers a range of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit various risk tolerances.

Can I change my contribution percentage to Carvana's 401(k) plan at any time?

Yes, employees can change their contribution percentage to Carvana's 401(k) plan at any time, typically through the employee benefits portal.

What is the vesting schedule for Carvana's 401(k) company match?

Carvana has a specific vesting schedule for the company match, which means that employees must work for a certain period before they fully own the matched contributions.

Are there any fees associated with Carvana's 401(k) plan?

Yes, Carvana's 401(k) plan may have administrative and investment fees, which are disclosed in the plan documents provided to employees.

How often can I review my 401(k) account with Carvana?

Employees can review their 401(k) account with Carvana at any time through the plan's online portal, allowing for regular monitoring of investments.

What happens to my Carvana 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave Carvana, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over to another retirement account, cashing it out, or leaving it in the Carvana plan if permitted.

Does Carvana allow loans against the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Carvana's 401(k) plan may allow employees to take loans against their vested balance, subject to specific terms and conditions.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Carvana's 401(k) Plan: Carvana offers a traditional 401(k) plan, allowing employees to contribute a portion of their salary to a retirement savings account, which grows tax-deferred until withdrawal. In 2024, employees can contribute up to $23,000, with an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500 for those aged 50 or older, totaling $30,500. The company likely offers a match on employee contributions, though specific match details were not found. The plan includes a variety of investment options, typically mutual funds or ETFs, chosen by the employee from a list curated by the plan administrator (Annuity.org) (MissionSquare). Pension Plan: Carvana does not offer a traditional defined benefit pension plan as part of its retirement benefits package. Instead, they focus on the 401(k) plan, which aligns with the shift in many modern companies from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans. The emphasis is on employee-driven retirement savings with employer support, rather than a fixed monthly pension payout

Restructuring Layoffs (2023-2024): In response to economic pressures, Carvana has been undergoing significant restructuring efforts, including layoffs and reduction in work hours for many employees. These layoffs began in 2022 with the cutting of approximately 4,000 jobs and have continued into 2023 and 2024. The company has been discreetly reducing its workforce to combat financial losses, driven by increased inflation and rising interest rates. Carvana's stock has also suffered, with a 95% drop over the past year, further complicating its financial stability. Addressing these layoffs is crucial because they reflect broader economic challenges that could affect both current employees and investors, particularly in an unstable economic environment (markets.businessinsider.com). Benefit, Pension, and 401(k) Changes (2023-2024): Carvana has also been exploring changes to its employee benefits, particularly in terms of retiree health benefits. The company, like many others, is navigating the legal landscape concerning the reduction or elimination of post-employment health care benefits. For current and former employees, understanding these changes is essential as federal law does not protect retiree health benefits unless explicitly promised by the company. Such shifts in benefit structures underscore the importance of staying informed, especially given the volatile economic and political environment that impacts retirement planning

Carvana offers a comprehensive health benefits package including medical, dental, and vision insurance. They also provide access to telemedicine services and an Employee Assistance Program. There were updates to their benefits plan in 2023 to include more mental health resources and enhanced telehealth options.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Carvana at 1930 W. Rio Salado Parkway Tempe, AZ 85281; or by calling them at +1 800-333-4554.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carvana-layoffs-2023-what-to-know-about-the-latest-cvna-job-cuts-1032017776 https://www.theretirementgroup.com/featured-article/5448081/can-carvana-cut-benefits https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/cash-balance-pension-plan-options https://www.mercer.com/insights/law-and-policy/taking-a-look-at-secure-2-0-defined-benefit-plan-provisions/ https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/t047-c000-s004-the-pros-and-cons-of-cash-balance-plans.html https://www.annuity.org/retirement/401k/ https://www.missionsq.org/plan-sponsors/plan-rules/contribution-limits https://pensionrights.org/resource/retirement-plan-contribution-and-benefit-limits/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/carvana/ https://www.hrdive.com/