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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Cisco Systems Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Cisco Systems: Cisco Systems predominantly collaborates with major national insurers, mainly including Anthem (Elevance Health), UnitedHealthcare, and Aetna, to provide employee healthcare benefits. These collaborations offer a range of plans aimed at ensuring comprehensive health coverage for their employees and their families. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: In 2026, employees of Cisco Systems may face significant increases in healthcare costs due to anticipated surges in health insurance premiums. With marketplace plans expected to see hikes of over 60% in some states, combined with the potential expiration of enhanced federal subsidies, out-of-pocket expenditures could rise dramatically. These changes, alongside medical cost inflation projected between 7% to 10%, indicate a challenging landscape for healthcare affordability, urging employees to evaluate their benefits and cost management strategies carefully ahead of these increases. Click here to learn more

'Cisco Systems employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Cisco Systems employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

The Cisco Systems 401(k) plan is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their salary on a tax-deferred basis.

How can I enroll in the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan through the employee benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What is the employer match for the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

Cisco Systems offers a competitive employer match for contributions made to the 401(k) plan, typically matching a percentage of employee contributions up to a certain limit.

Are there any fees associated with the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

Yes, the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan may have administrative fees and investment fees, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

What investment options are available in the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

The Cisco Systems 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and company stock.

Can I take a loan from my Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees may have the option to take a loan from their Cisco Systems 401(k) plan, subject to certain terms and conditions.

What happens to my Cisco Systems 401(k) plan if I leave the company?

If you leave Cisco Systems, you have several options for your 401(k) plan, including rolling it over to an IRA or a new employer’s plan, or cashing it out.

At what age can I start withdrawing from my Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

You can typically start withdrawing from your Cisco Systems 401(k) plan without penalties at age 59½.

Does Cisco Systems offer financial counseling for 401(k) participants?

Yes, Cisco Systems may provide access to financial counseling services to help employees make informed decisions about their 401(k) investments.

How often can I change my contribution amount to the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan?

Employees can typically change their contribution amount to the Cisco Systems 401(k) plan at any time, subject to plan rules.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Cisco Systems provides a 401(k) plan with company matching contributions. Employees can contribute pre-tax or Roth (after-tax) dollars, and Cisco matches 100% of the first 4.5% of eligible compensation. The plan includes various investment options such as target-date funds, mutual funds, and a self-directed brokerage account. Cisco also offers an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) with a discount on company stock. Financial planning resources and tools are available to help employees manage their retirement savings.

Cisco is undergoing a major restructuring, which includes laying off thousands of employees to focus on high-growth markets like AI and cloud computing. The company is also planning to acquire Splunk Inc., which is expected to enhance its capabilities in these areas. Cisco offers a 401(k) plan with immediate enrollment and a range of health and wellness benefits for retirees. Staying updated on these benefits is crucial given the current political climate.

Cisco Systems offers both RSUs and stock options to employees. RSUs vest over time and convert into shares, while stock options allow employees to buy shares at a fixed price.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Cisco Systems at 170 W Tasman Dr San Jose, CA 95134; or by calling them at (408) 526-4000.