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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for CITGO Employees

'CITGO employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'CITGO employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation, and how do these criteria affect the benefits that employees accrue? Employees of CITGO Petroleum Corporation must meet specific criteria to qualify for the Retirement Plan, which is designed to provide a stable income during retirement. Understanding these eligibility requirements is crucial for employees, as it impacts their expected benefits and retirement strategy.

Eligibility for the CITGO Petroleum Corporation Retirement Plan: Employees must be at least 21 years old and have completed 12 months of employment with at least 1,000 hours of service to be eligible. Hourly employees covered by a collective bargaining agreement are typically included after meeting these requirements. Eligibility significantly affects benefits accrual, as being a participant allows employees to begin accruing service and vesting credits, which directly influence retirement benefit calculations(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How does the Cash Balance Benefit structure work within the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation, particularly regarding the accumulation of Compensation Credits and Interest Credits? The Cash Balance Benefits offer a valuable retirement savings mechanism for CITGO employees, impacted by their Basic Earnings and years of service. As interest rates fluctuate, the manner in which these credits accumulate can significantly influence the overall retirement benefit.

Cash Balance Benefit Structure: The Cash Balance Benefit under the Retirement Plan includes Compensation Credits and Interest Credits. Compensation Credits are based on a percentage of Basic Earnings, determined by the employee's age and years of service. Interest Credits are applied annually and are calculated based on the higher of the 30-year Treasury securities rate or 1.5%. These credits are added to the employee's notional account balance each year, with the total balance used to determine the retirement benefit(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

In what ways can employees of CITGO Petroleum Corporation manage their Frozen Accrued Benefit upon retirement, and what considerations must they take into account? Employees nearing retirement should know how to optimize their Frozen Accrued Benefit for their individual retirement planning. Factors such as timing, potential changes in personal circumstances, and regulatory aspects play a critical role in this planning process.

Managing Frozen Accrued Benefits: Upon retirement, employees can manage their Frozen Accrued Benefit by selecting different payout options such as a single-life annuity or joint and survivor annuities. The timing of retirement also plays a key role, as early retirement may reduce the benefits based on age reduction factors. Employees need to consider their financial circumstances and retirement goals to optimize this benefit(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

What are the implications of transferring employment status (from hourly to salaried) on participation in the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation? Understanding how a transition from hourly to salaried employment affects fund accumulation and credit service under the Retirement Plan is vital for employees planning their careers. Such transitions need to be handled carefully to ensure that benefits remain maximized.

Effect of Employment Status Transfer: A transfer from hourly to salaried employment will freeze Benefit Credit Service under the Plan, but Vesting Credit Service continues. Compensation and Transition Credits cease for hourly employees transitioning to salaried roles. However, Interest Credits continue until the Cash Balance Benefit is distributed. These changes can affect the overall retirement fund accumulation(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How do various retirement benefit options, including lump-sum payments and annuities, function within the CITGO Petroleum Corporation Retirement Plan? Employees face various choices regarding the disbursement of retirement benefits, each carrying unique financial implications. Evaluating these options requires a keen understanding of how they interact with overarching financial goals.

Retirement Benefit Options: CITGO Petroleum employees can choose between receiving their retirement benefits as a lump sum or through an annuity. Each option has different financial implications. Lump-sum payments offer immediate access to funds, but annuities provide a steady income stream over the retiree's lifetime. The choice between these options depends on the employee’s personal financial strategy(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

What is the role of the Plan Administrator in resolving benefits-related issues for employees at CITGO Petroleum Corporation, and how can employees effectively interact with this office? Employees must understand the administrative structure governing their retirement benefits. Effective communication with the Plan Administrator can significantly enhance an employee's ability to navigate complex issues regarding their retirement.

Role of Plan Administrator: The Plan Administrator is responsible for managing and resolving any issues related to retirement benefits. Employees can contact the Benefits HelpLine for inquiries or disputes regarding their benefits. Effective communication with the Plan Administrator ensures that employees can navigate and resolve issues related to their retirement plan(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How does the vesting schedule impact the retirement benefits of employees at CITGO Petroleum Corporation, and what strategies can employees employ to ensure full vesting? The vesting schedule is a critical component influencing when employees become entitled to their benefits. Employees should be aware of what actions can enhance their vesting status prior to retirement.

Impact of the Vesting Schedule: CITGO’s vesting schedule requires employees to have at least three years of service to become 100% vested. Vesting entitles employees to receive full benefits under the Plan. Employees nearing retirement should ensure they meet the vesting requirements to maximize their entitled benefits(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

What are the special provisions that exist for employees returning to work after receiving retirement benefits within the CITGO Petroleum Corporation Retirement Plan? Employees considering retirement must appreciate how returning to work can alter their benefits under the Retirement Plan. The potential effects on benefit payments, roles, and rights are crucial discussions for retiring employees.

Returning to Work Post-Retirement: Employees who return to work after receiving retirement benefits will have their benefit payments suspended. Upon re-retirement, their benefits are recalculated to reflect any additional service accrued during reemployment. Employees must understand these provisions to avoid potential disruptions to their retirement income(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How is the funding status of the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation determined, and what implications does it have for current and future benefits? The viability of the Retirement Plan is heavily influenced by its funding status, impacting all participants. Employees should stay informed about what underpins this status and how it may affect their own long-term retirement planning.

Plan Funding Status: The funding status of the Retirement Plan is essential, as it affects the availability of lump-sum payments and may influence future benefits. Employees should monitor the Plan’s funding status to understand how it impacts their options and the security of their retirement benefits(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How can employees of CITGO Petroleum Corporation obtain further information about their retirement benefits, and what specific resources are available to assist them? Employees seeking additional guidance must know the channels available for inquiries. By reaching out to the Benefits HelpLine, employees can access crucial information that aids in managing their retirement planning effectively. For more information, employees can contact the Benefits HelpLine at CITGO Petroluem Corporation by emailing Benefits@CITGO.comã€4:18â€ sourceã€‘.

Accessing Further Information: Employees can obtain further details on their retirement benefits by contacting the Benefits HelpLine or the Plan Administrator. These resources provide necessary guidance on managing retirement benefits and addressing any issues or questions that arise(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).