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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Citigroup Employees

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'Citigroup employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Citigroup employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the main eligibility criteria for participating in the Citigroup Pension Plan, and how can Citigroup employees ensure they meet these requirements throughout their employment? Furthermore, what implications does the merger of prior pension plans into the Citigroup Pension Plan have on the benefits for employees from acquired companies, and what steps should they take to understand how their previous service is credited under Citigroup?

Eligibility Criteria for Citigroup Pension Plan Participation: Employees hired before January 1, 2007, are eligible to participate in the Citigroup Pension Plan if they were employees of a Participating Employer. Employees hired after that date are generally not eligible to participate. Additionally, employees from acquired companies may have their prior service credited under Citigroup. It's important for these employees to review the plan's specific provisions or contact the Citi Pension Center to ensure accurate service credit(Citigroup_Pension_Plan_…).

How does the Citigroup Pension Plan address survivor benefits for employees who pass away before their pension benefits commence, and what steps must their beneficiaries take to claim these benefits? Additionally, how can employees ensure that their loved ones are adequately informed about the options available should they face this unfortunate event?

Survivor Benefits for Pre-Retirement Death: If an employee passes away before benefits commence, the surviving spouse may receive a lifetime annuity based on the account balance or opt for a lump sum. Employees should ensure that their beneficiaries are aware of these options and the process to claim benefits(Citigroup_Pension_Plan_…).

For Citigroup employees wanting to learn more about the pension plan's benefits and options available to them, what contact methods should they use? How does Citigroup facilitate communication regarding the pension plan, and what are the most efficient ways for employees to get their questions answered?

Contacting Citigroup for Pension Plan Inquiries: Employees can contact the Citi Pension Center by phone at 1-800-881-3938 for U.S. inquiries or use the online portal to access their pension details. These methods provide the most efficient way to get answers to any pension-related questions(Citigroup_Pension_Plan_…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Citigroup offers both a traditional defined benefit pension plan and a defined contribution 401(k) plan. The defined benefit plan provides retirement income based on years of service and final average pay. The 401(k) plan includes company matching contributions and various investment options such as target-date funds and mutual funds. Citigroup also provides financial planning resources and tools to help employees manage their retirement savings.

Citigroup is planning to cut 20,000 jobs as part of a major restructuring effort to streamline operations and save $2.5 billion. The bank is also focusing on international growth and simplifying its management structure from 13 layers to eight. Despite the layoffs, Citigroup continues to offer comprehensive retirement benefits, including 401(k) plans and health benefits. Understanding these benefits is important in today's political environment.

Citigroup grants RSUs that vest over several years, giving employees shares upon vesting. They also provide stock options, allowing employees to purchase shares at a set price.