Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Duke Energy Employees

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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Duke Energy Employees

August 27, 2025

How Oil Volatility Affects Your Duke Energy Retirement

Crude oil prices remain elevated and volatile, with annualized volatility around 80% and prices ranging between $50 and $120 per barrel over the past six months. Fleet diesel costs and inflation-driven rate case pressures create indirect but meaningful exposure to sustained crude price swings. Retirement savings strategies at Duke Energy should account for how energy price cycles influence inflation, interest rates, and market returns over the long horizons that retirement planning requires. Working with a financial advisor helps ensure that energy market uncertainty does not undermine your long-term retirement and financial goals.

'Duke Energy employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' - Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Duke Energy employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' - Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Researchâ€‘backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting longâ€‘term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortuneâ€¯500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns, not just the average return, can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-ofâ€‘returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortuneâ€¯500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968-70 and 1973-74) alongside high inflation. The S&Pâ€¯500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973-74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortuneâ€¯500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement, combined with regular withdrawals, can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortuneâ€¯500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as "shock absorbers" for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches, such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails, have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio, by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in shortâ€‘ to intermediateâ€‘term bonds, may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortuneâ€¯500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortuneâ€¯500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios, often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds, have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

As you plan your transition from Duke Energy into retirement, it is worth understanding the company's specific benefit structure. According to publicly available information, Duke Energy maintains a defined benefit pension plan that has been frozen to new benefit accruals -- meaning the plan no longer accumulates future benefits for most employees, but those who were already vested may still be entitled to receive the pension benefit they accrued prior to the freeze, subject to the vesting requirements described in their plan documents. Duke Energy does not appear to offer a formal retiree healthcare program, making healthcare coverage planning an important consideration if you retire before age 65. Because the specifics of your pension benefit, retiree healthcare eligibility, and any matching contributions depend on your individual employment history and plan documents, We encourage you to review your Summary Plan Description (SPD) or speak with Duke Energy's HR or benefits team for the most current details.

Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. " Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates ." Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48-50, 52-54, 56-58. Financial Planning Association.

2. " Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes ." Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section "The 1973-74 Oil Crisis Bear Market."

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1-2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. " Why More Diversification Doesn't Mean Better Returns ." Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan calculate benefits at normal retirement age, specifically for employees who reach the age of 65? In what circumstances might an employee consider retiring before reaching this age, and how would the benefits differ if they choose this option?

Benefit Calculation at Normal Retirement Age: Duke Employees' Retirement Plan calculates benefits for employees who retire at age 65 by applying a formula that includes 1.25% of their average final compensation for the first 20 years of credited service and 1.66% for any additional years. If an employee retires before 65, they can do so after age 45 with 15 years of service, but their benefits will be reduced based on how early they retire, resulting in lower payments due to a longer payout period.

What considerations should an employee keep in mind regarding their unused sick leave or carry-over bank hours when calculating benefits under the Duke Employeesâ€™ Retirement Plan? How does Duke utilize these factors to enhance an employee's credited service for the purpose of benefit calculation?

Impact of Unused Sick Leave and Carry-Over Bank Hours: Unused sick leave and carry-over bank hours are converted into additional credited service, which can enhance the calculation of retirement benefits. Employees who have accumulated these hours can see their credited service extended, leading to higher pension benefits at retirement.

In what situations would an employee's benefits under the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan be automatically paid in a lump sum? How does the Plan determine the value of benefits that fall below the threshold for monthly payouts, and what implications does this have for retirement planning?

Lump-Sum Payments for Small Benefits: If the value of an employee's benefit is $5,000 or less, Duke Employees' Retirement Plan automatically pays it as a lump sum. For benefits between $5,000 and $10,000, employees can choose between a lump-sum payment or a monthly pension. This can significantly impact retirement planning, especially for employees weighing whether to take a smaller upfront amount or spread it over time.

How does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan handle benefit adjustments for employees who continue to work beyond their normal retirement age? What factors influence how these adjustments are calculated, and what implications might this have for future financial planning for employees nearing retirement?

Benefit Adjustments for Postponed Retirement: Employees who continue working beyond their normal retirement date will see their benefits increased annually (by no less than 10%) to account for the shorter period during which they will receive payments. The plan recalculates benefits based on the employee’s continued service and compensation after age 65.

What options are available to employees of Duke University regarding payment forms when they retire, and what are the long-term implications of choosing each option? How do these choices affect both the retiree's monthly income and survivor benefits for a spouse or other beneficiary?

Payment Form Options and Implications: At retirement, employees can choose various payment options such as a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities, or a lump-sum payment. These choices affect the amount received monthly and any survivor benefits for a spouse or beneficiary. Employees should carefully consider their long-term financial needs and the needs of their beneficiaries when selecting a payment option.

What specific protections does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan provide for spouses in the event of an employee's death, and how does this influence the choice of payment options? What steps must an employee take to ensure that their spouse's rights are upheld under the Plan?

Spousal Protections: The Plan provides protections for spouses in the event of an employee's death. A surviving spouse can receive 50% of the employee's reduced monthly benefit through a joint and survivor annuity. Employees must take steps to ensure spousal rights are protected by selecting the appropriate payment option and ensuring the necessary documentation is completed.

How can employees of Duke University ensure that they are informed about their rights under ERISA while participating in the Employees' Retirement Plan? What resources and tools does Duke provide to help employees understand and assert these rights?

Employee Rights Under ERISA: Duke provides resources for employees to understand their rights under ERISA, including access to plan documents and assistance in filing claims. Employees are encouraged to use Duke's available tools to assert their rights and ensure they are fully informed about the benefits available to them under the Plan.

In what ways can employees at Duke University navigate the complexities of reemployment after retirement, and how does their choice of retiree status affect their benefits? What regulations govern how benefits are recalculated if they choose to return to work at Duke?

Reemployment After Retirement: Employees who return to work at Duke after retiring can continue to receive their pension if they work fewer than 1,000 hours per year. However, if they exceed 1,000 hours, their payments will be paused and recalculated based on additional service and earnings when they retire again. This provides flexibility for employees considering reemployment after retirement.

What impact do legislative changes, such as those introduced by the IRS, have on the Duke Employees' Retirement Planâ€™s structure and benefits? How should employees approach understanding these changes in the context of their personal retirement strategies?

Impact of Legislative Changes: Changes introduced by the IRS or other regulatory bodies can impact the structure of the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan and its benefits. Employees should stay informed about these changes and how they affect personal retirement strategies, particularly regarding tax laws and pension calculations.

How can employees at Duke University contact the Retirement Board for questions or clarifications regarding their retirement benefits? What is the best approach for reaching out to ensure that they receive timely and accurate information?

Contacting the Retirement Board: Employees can contact Duke's Retirement Board for any questions or clarifications regarding their retirement benefits. The Retirement Board is responsible for managing the Plan, and employees are encouraged to reach out directly for timely and accurate information to address any concerns about their retirement.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Duke Energy offers a comprehensive employee pension plan known as the Duke Energy Retirement Cash Balance Plan (RCBP), which has undergone restructuring over the years. This plan is available to employees based on years of service and age qualification, with specific details outlined in the company's plan documents. Duke Energy also provides a 401(k) plan named the Duke Energy Retirement Savings Plan (RSP), offering both traditional and Roth options. Employees typically become eligible for these plans after meeting certain service requirements, with detailed formulas for calculating benefits. The Summary Plan Description (SPD) and other relevant documents provide precise details, including the specific pages where this information can be found. It’s important to refer to these documents to understand eligibility criteria, plan formulas, and other terms specific to Duke Energy’s retirement benefits.

Layoffs and Reorganization: Duke Energy has implemented layoffs as part of a broader effort to cut costs and refocus on clean energy initiatives. In 2023, the company laid off a few hundred employees, mainly in Charlotte, as part of a $300 million cost-saving strategy. These layoffs were primarily in corporate and operational support roles. Duke Energy is also reorganizing to enhance efficiency as it continues to transition towards cleaner energy sources, including the expansion and modernization of its clean energy grid. This restructuring is crucial to maintaining competitiveness in the evolving energy market. Importance: Addressing these layoffs and reorganization is vital given the current economic and investment climate, as well as the political push for cleaner energy solutions. Understanding the impact of these changes helps stakeholders navigate the uncertainties in the energy sector.

I gathered detailed information about Duke Energy's employee stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. Duke Energy offers both stock options and RSUs to its employees, primarily as part of its compensation and incentive programs. The company uses specific acronyms such as DUK for its stock symbol and references these programs in its financial reports and proxy statements. In 2022, Duke Energy expanded its RSU offerings, which were primarily targeted at senior management and key employees as a form of long-term incentive. The stock options and RSUs are granted based on performance criteria, and employees who meet these criteria, particularly those in leadership roles, are eligible. By 2023, Duke Energy continued to utilize RSUs as a significant part of its compensation strategy, with a focus on aligning employee incentives with shareholder interests. This program was further reinforced in 2024 as part of the company's efforts to retain top talent during a period of operational restructuring.

For Duke Energy, the health benefits offered to employees in the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 are comprehensive and focus on a range of healthcare needs. Duke Energy provides medical, dental, vision, life, and disability coverage as part of its total rewards package. Additionally, wellness programs, retirement benefits, and work-life balance programs are emphasized to ensure the well-being of employees. Some specific healthcare-related terms and acronyms used by Duke Energy include the UHC (UnitedHealthcare) Transparency in Coverage initiative, which is part of their efforts to comply with legal requirements and ensure employees have access to clear information about their healthcare costs. Duke Energy also offers Parental Leave Pay for both mothers and fathers, providing up to six weeks of paid leave for new parents. In terms of recent employee healthcare news, Duke Energy has been actively involved in initiatives that align with their sustainability goals, which indirectly impact employee health benefits. For example, their clean energy transition is likely to bring about changes in the healthcare policies related to environmental health and safety as the company focuses on reducing its carbon footprint and promoting sustainable practices across its operations.

For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Duke Energy at 550 S Tryon St Charlotte, NC 28202; or by calling them at (800) 777-9898.

https://hr.duke.edu/benefits/retirement/457b/ https://investors.duke-energy.com/news/news-details/2022/Duke-Energy-expands-clean-energy-action-plan-02-09-2022/default.aspx https://www.stordahlcap.com/insights/understanding-net-unrealized-appreciation-nua-and-its-tax-benefits https://corient.com/insights/articles/net-unrealized-appreciation-strategy-after-tax-contributions https://www.thelayoff.com/duke-energy?page=2 https://www.myplaniq.com/LTISystem/f401k_plan.action?ID=4666 https://www.sec.gov/ https://simpleqdro.com/

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