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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Eli Lilly Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Eli Lilly's primary healthcare provider initiatives are often tied to their pharmaceutical products and drug distribution networks, which include partnerships with a variety of healthcare systems and organizations to ensure that patients have access to their medications and therapies. Looking ahead to 2026, the healthcare landscape is expected to witness significant cost increases, particularly in health insurance premiums for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans. With some states projecting hikes exceeding 60%, many individuals could see their out-of-pocket costs soar by over 75% if enhanced federal premium subsidies are not extended. This surge is driven by a combination of rising medical costs, including both hospital and prescription drug expenses, and the profitability pressures on insurers, prompting them to request substantial rate increases. As a result, consumers, especially those relying on ACA coverage, might face unprecedented financial strain in their quest for adequate healthcare. Click here to learn more

'Eli Lilly employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Eli Lilly employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Eli Lilly?

The 401(k) plan at Eli Lilly is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their salary on a tax-deferred basis.

How does Eli Lilly match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Eli Lilly offers a matching contribution up to a certain percentage of the employee's salary, which helps to boost retirement savings.

Can employees at Eli Lilly choose how their 401(k) contributions are invested?

Yes, employees at Eli Lilly can select from a variety of investment options for their 401(k) contributions, including stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

What is the eligibility requirement for Eli Lilly's 401(k) plan?

Employees at Eli Lilly are typically eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specific period of employment, usually within the first year.

How can Eli Lilly employees enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Eli Lilly employees can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company’s online benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What are the contribution limits for Eli Lilly's 401(k) plan?

The contribution limits for Eli Lilly's 401(k) plan are set according to IRS guidelines, which can change annually. Employees should refer to the latest IRS limits for specifics.

Does Eli Lilly offer a Roth 401(k) option?

Yes, Eli Lilly provides a Roth 401(k) option that allows employees to make after-tax contributions, which can grow tax-free.

What happens to my Eli Lilly 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave Eli Lilly, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over to another retirement account, cashing it out, or leaving it in the Eli Lilly plan if allowed.

Are there any fees associated with Eli Lilly's 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be administrative fees or investment-related fees associated with Eli Lilly's 401(k) plan, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

How often can I change my contribution amount to the Eli Lilly 401(k) plan?

Employees at Eli Lilly can typically change their contribution amounts at any time, subject to the plan's rules and guidelines.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Eli Lilly offers comprehensive employee retirement benefits, including both pension plans and 401(k) plans. The Lilly Pension Plan is a Defined Benefit (DB) plan, where the pension is determined by an employee's earnings and years of service at the company. This pension plan has been updated over the years, with specific attention to tax and regulatory changes. Employees qualify based on their length of service and meet eligibility requirements outlined in Eli Lilly’s internal documents. The Lilly Pension Plan uses a final average pay formula to calculate the pension, meaning the pension is based on an employee's earnings during their final years of employment (SEC.gov). Eli Lilly also provides a 401(k) plan known as The Lilly Employee 401(k) Plan. This plan was established to help employees save for retirement, incorporating both employer contributions and employee savings. As of January 1, 2006, it was amended to include an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) within the 401(k). Eligibility for the 401(k) plan includes all regular, full-time employees of Eli Lilly, as well as its subsidiaries and affiliates (SEC.gov). The company matches contributions and offers vesting schedules based on years of service. For instance, employees become fully vested after completing five years of service, as outlined in their official documentation (SEC.gov). The pension and 401(k) plan information for Eli Lilly has been extensively documented in their official filings with the SEC, where the detailed structure of the plans is outlined, including the qualifications for participation and vesting. Specific sections such as those covering mergers and eligibility requirements for different types of employees, including those under subsidiary plans, are found in their formal pension and 401(k) documentation (SEC.gov) (SEC.gov).

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Eli Lilly announced significant restructuring efforts, including the reduction of 3,500 jobs globally. This move is part of their strategy to save $500 million annually, with half of the savings aimed at product launches and R&D efforts. The layoffs are primarily focused on early retirement programs, site closures in New Jersey and Shanghai, and the consolidation of manufacturing locations (FiercePharma). This news is critical to address due to the current economic climate, where inflationary pressures and cost-cutting measures are widespread. The political environment also affects the pharmaceutical industry, making it crucial to track how companies like Eli Lilly adjust their workforce to stay competitive (FiercePharma).

Eli Lilly provides its employees with both stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) as part of its long-term incentive compensation. These RSUs are issued to employees and are subject to a vesting schedule, typically staggered over a period of time such as one, two, or three years. The goal is to retain employees by ensuring they receive full ownership of the stock only after they have fulfilled a specified period of service with the company (BusinessOwnerAdvisor). Stock options at Eli Lilly grant employees the opportunity to purchase company stock at a predetermined price, typically at the market value on the grant date. These options often vest over several years, with employees being able to exercise them once they are vested. RSUs, on the other hand, provide employees with company shares once they are fully vested, and these shares are taxed as ordinary income at the time of vesting. Employees are responsible for deciding whether to sell the shares immediately or hold onto them, which involves considering factors like tax implications and portfolio diversification (Eli Lilly and Company) (Eli Lilly and Company). RSUs and stock options at Eli Lilly are available to a broad group of employees, typically those in management and other key roles. The availability of these stock-based compensation forms reflects Eli Lilly's commitment to aligning employee incentives with company performance, and they play a crucial role in employee retention (BusinessOwnerAdvisor).

Eli Lilly has been making significant strides in its healthcare offerings, particularly through the launch of its digital platform, LillyDirect. This platform focuses on providing support for patients with chronic illnesses such as obesity, diabetes, and migraines. By enabling patients to access telehealth services and facilitating direct home delivery of certain medications, Eli Lilly has made healthcare more accessible and streamlined for patients dealing with these conditions. Additionally, LillyDirect offers educational resources and digital pharmacy solutions, making it easier for patients to refill prescriptions and receive medications at home. This initiative is crucial as it caters to a growing need for convenient healthcare, especially in light of the current economic pressures and the healthcare industry's shift towards digital solutions (PYMNTS.com) (PYMNTS.com). In the broader context of Eli Lilly's healthcare initiatives, the company's focus on digital healthcare aligns with current trends in healthcare delivery. The importance of platforms like LillyDirect is underscored by the economic and political pressures on the healthcare system, particularly as patients seek cost-effective and accessible treatments. Moreover, the growing political discourse around healthcare reform, coupled with tax implications for pharmaceutical benefits, further highlights the relevance of Lilly's approach. By offering services such as telehealth and home delivery, Eli Lilly is positioning itself at the forefront of healthcare innovation, which is critical for ensuring patient satisfaction in a competitive market (PYMNTS.com) (HealthCare ME&A Magazine).

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Eli Lilly at Lilly Corporate Center Indianapolis, IN 46285; or by calling them at (317) 276-2000.

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