New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Etsy Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Etsy provides health insurance through UnitedHealthcare, covering 100% of premiums for employees and dependents. Additional benefits include dental (Delta Dental), vision, mental health support, and wellness programs 1. As ACA premiums rise and subsidies expire, Etsys fully covered plans offer a strong buffer against market volatility, making employer-sponsored coverage significantly more cost-effective Click here to learn more

'Etsy employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Etsy employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What type of retirement plan does Etsy offer to its employees?

Etsy offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to help employees save for their future.

Does Etsy match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Etsy provides a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees maximize their retirement savings.

What is the eligibility requirement for Etsy employees to participate in the 401(k) plan?

Employees at Etsy are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specified period of service, typically outlined in the employee handbook.

Can Etsy employees choose how to invest their 401(k) contributions?

Yes, Etsy employees can choose from a variety of investment options within the 401(k) plan to align with their retirement goals.

What is the vesting schedule for Etsy's 401(k) matching contributions?

Etsy has a vesting schedule for matching contributions, which means employees must work for a certain period before they fully own those contributions.

How can Etsy employees access their 401(k) account information?

Etsy employees can access their 401(k) account information through the plan's online portal or by contacting the plan administrator.

Are there any fees associated with managing Etsy's 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be administrative fees associated with Etsy's 401(k) plan, which are typically disclosed in the plan documents.

Can Etsy employees take loans from their 401(k) accounts?

Yes, Etsy allows employees to take loans from their 401(k) accounts under certain conditions, as outlined in the plan guidelines.

What happens to an Etsy employee's 401(k) if they leave the company?

If an Etsy employee leaves the company, they can choose to roll over their 401(k) balance to another retirement account, cash it out, or leave it in the Etsy plan if allowed.

Does Etsy provide financial education resources related to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Etsy offers financial education resources and workshops to help employees make informed decisions about their 401(k) savings.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Etsy offers its employees a comprehensive retirement plan, primarily centered around a 401(k) with competitive employer matching contributions. Employees are eligible for the 401(k) plan after meeting specific criteria, such as one year of service and being at least 21 years old. The 401(k) plan at Etsy allows participants to make tax-deferred contributions, up to a maximum set by the IRS. For the year 2024, this limit is $23,000, with an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500 for employees aged 50 and over (Investopedia) (CapitalGroup NACG). The plan also includes various investment options, including mutual funds and stocks, which employees can choose from depending on their risk tolerance and retirement goals. Etsy's 401(k) plan emphasizes the importance of consistent employee participation and is structured to align with federal guidelines like ERISA, which protects retirement assets. Although Etsy does not offer a traditional pension plan, its 401(k) plan is designed to be flexible and supportive of long-term retirement savings, with employer contributions enhancing the growth potential of the plan

Restructuring Layoffs: Etsy announced in December 2023 that it would be laying off 11% of its workforce, amounting to approximately 225 employees. This move comes as the company faces a challenging macroeconomic environment and increased competition. The layoffs are expected to cost Etsy between $25 million and $30 million, primarily due to severance payments, employee benefits, and related expenses. The restructuring is aimed at achieving greater operational efficiencies and cost savings, especially in the wake of flat gross merchandise sales since 2021. Additionally, Etsy has made significant changes to its executive team, including the departure of its Chief Marketing Officer and Chief Human Resources Officer, with their responsibilities being redistributed among existing executives.

2022: Etsy employees were eligible for stock options and RSUs as part of their compensation package. Specific details about the vesting schedules and performance criteria are detailed in the company's annual report (Source: Etsy Annual Report 2022, Page 45). 2023: Etsy continued offering stock options and RSUs to its employees. The grants were generally provided based on seniority and role within the company (Source: Etsy Proxy Statement 2023, Page 38). 2024: In 2024, Etsy maintained its stock option and RSU programs. Employees in management and critical roles were prioritized for these benefits

1. Official Etsy Website Etsy Careers Page: Often provides information about employee benefits, including health benefits. Etsy Employee Handbook: If available, it may have specific details on healthcare benefits. 2. Reliable Sources and News Outlets Glassdoor: Employees often share details about their benefits here. Indeed: Offers company reviews and sometimes specific details on benefits. LinkedIn: Check for company updates or employee discussions on benefits. Forbes: May provide news or articles about employee benefits. Business Insider: Could offer insights into employee benefits and company news.