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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Flowers Foods Employees

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'Flowers Foods employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Flowers Foods employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Flowers Foods?

The 401(k) plan at Flowers Foods is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their salary on a pre-tax basis, helping them prepare for retirement.

Does Flowers Foods offer a company match for the 401(k) contributions?

Yes, Flowers Foods offers a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, which helps boost employees' retirement savings.

What is the eligibility requirement to participate in the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan?

Employees of Flowers Foods are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specified period of service, typically 30 days.

How can employees of Flowers Foods enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan through the company’s HR portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What types of investment options are available in the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan?

The Flowers Foods 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, stocks, and bonds, allowing employees to diversify their retirement savings.

Can employees change their contribution percentage to the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees can change their contribution percentage to the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan at any time, subject to the plan’s guidelines.

When can employees of Flowers Foods take a loan from their 401(k) plan?

Employees can take a loan from their Flowers Foods 401(k) plan under certain conditions, such as financial hardship or specific personal needs, as outlined in the plan documents.

What happens to the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan if an employee leaves the company?

If an employee leaves Flowers Foods, they can either roll over their 401(k) balance to a new employer's plan, an IRA, or withdraw the funds, subject to taxes and penalties.

Is there a vesting schedule for the company match in the Flowers Foods 401(k) plan?

Yes, Flowers Foods has a vesting schedule for the company match, meaning employees must work for a certain number of years before they fully own the matched contributions.

How often can employees of Flowers Foods review their 401(k) account statements?

Employees can review their Flowers Foods 401(k) account statements quarterly, and they can also access their accounts online at any time.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Flowers Foods offers a 401(k) Retirement Savings Plan through Empower for its employees, known as the FLOWERS FOODS, INC. 401(K) RETIREMENT SAVINGS PLAN. This plan covers approximately 11,266 employees. Flowers Foods, headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, has been in operation since 1919, specializing in the production of bread, buns, cakes, and pastries. Their 401(k) plan includes a company match program, encouraging employees to contribute towards their retirement. Employees have the option to roll over their 401(k) into an IRA or a new 401(k) if they no longer work at the company (Jobs at Flowers Foods) (Capitalize). The specific eligibility criteria for the 401(k) plan at Flowers Foods includes full-time employment, and the company offers professional growth opportunities as part of their benefits package. For 2023 and 2024, Flowers Foods has maintained this plan under Empower with consistent matching contributions

Restructuring Layoffs: Flowers Foods has recently undergone significant restructuring, resulting in the elimination of approximately 250 positions across various departments. This move is part of a broader strategy to streamline operations, reduce complexity, and improve profitability. Despite the layoffs, Flowers Foods continues to pursue growth opportunities through innovation and strategic investments, indicating a focus on long-term sustainability. It's crucial to address these restructuring efforts due to the current economic pressures and the need for companies to adapt to changing market conditions. Benefit Changes and Pension/401(k) Updates: The company has also made adjustments to its employee benefits, including pension plans. They recently purchased an annuity to complete the termination of a pension plan, which aligns with their strategy of focusing resources on more profitable ventures. Additionally, Flowers Foods continues to provide a standard 401(k) match of up to 6%, although the program remains underutilized by employees. This highlights the importance of staying informed about benefit changes, especially in an uncertain economic and political environment. Addressing these updates is crucial as they directly impact employees' financial security and retirement planning.

2022: Flowers Foods granted Time-Based Restricted Stock Units (TBRSUs) under its 2014 Omnibus Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. These RSUs vest based on continued employment over a specific period, typically three years. The RSUs do not carry voting rights or dividend rights until they vest and convert into actual shares of Flowers Foods stock (Justia). 2023: The company continued to offer similar equity incentives, focusing on performance-contingent RSUs. These RSUs vest based on the company's performance metrics, such as Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Total Shareholder Return (TSR). The vesting periods for these RSUs run through 2024, ensuring that recipients remain with the company while contributing to its long-term success (Nasdaq). 2024: The company has not significantly altered its stock options and RSU offerings, continuing to use performance-based vesting criteria to motivate and retain key personnel. The RSUs remain a key component of compensation for Flowers Foods’ executives and upper management (Justia) (Nasdaq).

Flowers Foods offers a comprehensive health benefits package aimed at supporting the long-term well-being of its employees and their families. The company provides two main medical plan options: PPO and PPO Plus, the latter of which is associated with a Health Savings Account (HSA). Other benefits include Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA) for healthcare and dependent care, dental and vision insurance, short-term disability coverage, and voluntary long-term disability insurance. The company also offers an Employee Assistance Plan (EAP) and various supplemental insurance options

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Flowers Foods at , ; or by calling them at .

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