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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for HF Sinclair Employees

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'HF Sinclair employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'HF Sinclair employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by HF Sinclair?

The 401(k) plan at HF Sinclair is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck before taxes are deducted.

How can I enroll in HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan by completing the enrollment process through the company's benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does HF Sinclair match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, HF Sinclair offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees boost their retirement savings.

What is the maximum contribution limit for HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan is set according to IRS guidelines, which may change annually. Employees should check the latest limits for the current year.

When can I start contributing to HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan?

Employees at HF Sinclair can start contributing to the 401(k) plan after completing their eligibility period, which is typically outlined in the benefits documentation.

What investment options are available in HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan?

HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, stocks, and bonds, allowing employees to choose based on their risk tolerance and retirement goals.

Can I take a loan against my 401(k) at HF Sinclair?

Yes, HF Sinclair allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to certain conditions and limits as outlined in the plan documents.

What happens to my 401(k) if I leave HF Sinclair?

If an employee leaves HF Sinclair, they have several options for their 401(k), including rolling it over to a new employer's plan, transferring it to an IRA, or cashing it out (with potential penalties).

How often can I change my contribution amount to HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan?

Employees can typically change their contribution amount to HF Sinclair's 401(k) plan during open enrollment periods or at any time as permitted by the plan rules.

Is there a vesting schedule for HF Sinclair's 401(k) matching contributions?

Yes, HF Sinclair has a vesting schedule for its matching contributions, meaning employees must work for a certain period before they fully own the matched funds.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

HF Sinclair provides both a pension plan and a 401(k) plan for its employees. The company's pension plan is referred to as the HF Sinclair Retirement Plan, and it generally requires employees to meet certain age and years of service qualifications to be eligible. The pension formula is based on a final average pay calculation, which considers the employee's average salary over the last few years of service. For the 401(k) plan, known as the HF Sinclair 401(k) Retirement Savings Plan, employees are automatically enrolled with a default contribution rate of 6% of eligible earnings. Employees have the flexibility to adjust this contribution rate from 1% to 75% of their eligible earnings. The plan includes a company match, enhancing the retirement savings for participants. Detailed information about the pension and 401(k) plans, including eligibility criteria, contribution limits, and specific terms, can be found in the HF Sinclair benefits summary documents from 2022 to 2024, accessible through their internal benefits portal. Please refer to the specific benefits document for exact details, including page numbers

Layoffs: In 2023, HF Sinclair implemented significant layoffs at its Sinclair refinery, affecting nearly 100 employees. The decision was met with concern from both state and federal officials due to the economic impact on local communities. This reduction aligns with the company's broader strategy to optimize operations in a challenging economic environment. The layoffs are important to address given the current economic pressures and the impact on the local workforce, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and support for affected employees.

HF Sinclair Corporation offers various employee stock options (ESOs) and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) as part of its equity compensation program. These options and units are made available to employees to align their interests with the company's performance and long-term success. Stock Options: HF Sinclair provides employees the opportunity to purchase company stock at a predetermined price, known as the exercise price. This option typically vests over a period of time, allowing employees to purchase shares at the set price, regardless of the market price at the time of exercise. Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): RSUs are another form of equity compensation offered by HF Sinclair. Unlike stock options, RSUs represent a promise to deliver company shares at a future date, subject to vesting conditions such as continued employment or performance milestones. Upon vesting, RSUs are converted to actual shares of HF Sinclair stock. Eligibility: Both stock options and RSUs are generally made available to a wide range of employees within HF Sinclair, including senior executives, managers, and other key employees. The availability of these equity awards is typically tied to the employee's role, performance, and tenure with the company. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, HF Sinclair continued to issue these equity compensations as part of their incentive plans, adapting the terms and conditions based on the company’s financial performance and strategic goals. For detailed information on the specific terms and conditions, including vesting schedules and eligibility, you can refer to the company’s investor relations presentations and annual reports.

HF Sinclair offers a comprehensive range of health benefits aimed at supporting the physical, mental, and financial well-being of its employees. For the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, HF Sinclair's health benefits include medical plans with Health Savings Accounts (HSA), Health Reimbursement Accounts (HRA), and incentives like the "Go-to-Doctor" program, which offers premium discounts for completing an annual physical. Employees have access to various healthcare plans, including dental and vision coverage, as well as wellness programs that promote preventive care.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for HF Sinclair at , ; or by calling them at .

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