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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for HNI Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: HNI Corporation offers health insurance coverage to its U.S. employees through medical, dental, and vision plans, along with prescription benefits. The company provides Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) with employer contributions, as well as company-paid life and disability insurance. Preventive care and wellness programs are also included. HNI Corporation Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

'HNI employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'HNI employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the HNI 401(k) plan?

The HNI 401(k) plan is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck before taxes are taken out, helping them prepare for retirement.

How does HNI match contributions to the 401(k) plan?

HNI offers a matching contribution up to a certain percentage of employee contributions, which helps to enhance the overall retirement savings.

When can I enroll in HNI's 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in HNI's 401(k) plan during the initial onboarding process or during the annual open enrollment period.

What are the eligibility requirements for HNI's 401(k) plan?

To be eligible for HNI's 401(k) plan, employees typically need to meet certain criteria, such as being a full-time employee and completing a specified period of service.

Can I change my contribution rate to HNI's 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees can change their contribution rate to HNI's 401(k) plan at any time, subject to plan rules.

What investment options are available in HNI's 401(k) plan?

HNI's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

Does HNI provide financial education resources for employees regarding the 401(k) plan?

Yes, HNI provides financial education resources and tools to help employees make informed decisions about their 401(k) savings.

What happens to my HNI 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave HNI, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over to a new employer’s plan, an IRA, or cashing it out (though cashing out may have tax implications).

Is there a loan option available through HNI's 401(k) plan?

Yes, HNI's 401(k) plan may allow employees to take loans against their vested balance, subject to specific terms and conditions.

How often can I access my HNI 401(k) account statements?

Employees can access their HNI 401(k) account statements online, typically on a quarterly basis, or they can request them as needed.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

HNI Corporation provides both a 401(k) plan and a pension plan for its employees. HNI's 401(k) plan offers a company match where employees can contribute to their retirement savings. The match formula includes 100% matching on the first 1-3% of employee contributions, and 50% matching on the next 2%. This means HNI will match up to a maximum of 4% of an employee’s contributions, as long as the employee contributes at least 5% (PlanPerfect). The HNI pension plan is a defined benefit plan that requires employees to meet specific service and age qualifications. Employees typically need to complete one year of service before they are eligible for the pension plan. The pension formula is based on the employee’s final average pay and years of service. The specific name of the pension plan is "HNI Defined Benefit Pension Plan," and it applies to employees who meet the age and service requirements set forth by the company

In early 2024, HNI Corporation announced a significant restructuring plan aimed at streamlining its operations and reducing costs. The company will be implementing layoffs affecting approximately 5% of its workforce. This move is part of a broader strategy to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to changing market conditions. Given the current economic climate, where companies are re-evaluating their cost structures amidst economic uncertainty, it is crucial for affected employees and stakeholders to stay informed about these changes. Additionally, the restructuring may impact company benefits and pension plans, necessitating close attention to any modifications in these areas.

Stock Options and RSU Acronyms Identify the acronyms used for stock options and RSUs. Provide details on how these options and units are structured and allocated. Company-Specific Details Review HNI Corporation’s stock options and RSUs for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. Determine who is eligible for these benefits. Source and Documentation Include specific sources and page numbers for verification.

Official HNI Corporation Website Health Benefits Overview: HNI’s official website typically provides an overview of its employee benefits, including health insurance, dental and vision coverage, and wellness programs. Key Terms: Health Savings Account (HSA), Flexible Spending Account (FSA), Premiums, Deductibles, Coinsurance, Out-of-Pocket Maximums. Glassdoor Employee Reviews: Employees often review benefits on Glassdoor, detailing their experiences with HNI’s health insurance plans, including the quality of the plans and any changes over the years. Key Terms: PPO (Preferred Provider Organization), HMO (Health Maintenance Organization), Copays, Network Coverage.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for HNI at , ; or by calling them at .

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