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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for IBM Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for IBM: IBM primarily partners with Aon and Anthem Blue Cross for its employee healthcare plans, providing a range of medical coverage options to its employees including retirees. Projected Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: In 2026, IBM and many other companies are expected to face significant healthcare cost increases, largely driven by the looming expiration of enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). As these subsidies potentially vanish, reports indicate that out-of-pocket premiums could surge by over 75% for the majority of enrollees, creating an affordability crisis. With combined factors of escalating medical costs, aggressive premium hikes by major insurers, and the uncertainty surrounding federal assistance, businesses like IBM must brace for rising healthcare expenses that may impact their overall compensation strategies and employee benefits offerings. Click here to learn more

'IBM employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'IBM employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Personal Pension Plan benefit employees in terms of retirement savings, and what specific features does this plan offer to ensure financial security for its participants during retirement? Additionally, how does IBM's pension plan compare to industry standards, and what unique advantages does IBM provide to its employees through this retirement plan?

Retirement Savings Benefits of IBM’s Personal Pension Plan: IBM’s Personal Pension Plan benefits employees by offering a secure pathway to accumulate retirement savings. The plan primarily operates as a defined benefit cash balance plan, providing employees with a predictable retirement benefit based on a formula. This structure allows for easier financial planning as employees can foresee their benefits at retirement, contrasting favorably with plans where payouts depend on investment returns. IBM's pension plan typically includes features such as early retirement options and survivor benefits, enhancing financial security for participants and their families.

In what ways can employees of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) maximize their benefits from the company-sponsored Personal Pension Plan? Discuss both the contribution limits and enrollment processes that IBM has in place and how employees can effectively navigate these policies to enhance their future retirement income.

Maximizing Benefits from IBM’s Pension Plan: IBM employees can maximize their benefits from the company-sponsored Personal Pension Plan by actively participating and understanding the plan’s contribution limits and enrollment processes. Employees are encouraged to join the plan as soon as they are eligible and to contribute consistently throughout their tenure at IBM. Navigating these policies effectively involves utilizing IBM's resources for financial planning and advice, which can help employees optimize their contributions in alignment with their retirement goals.

What measures does the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) take to educate employees about their options under the pension plan, and how can IBM better improve communication regarding retirement benefits? Analyze the resources available to employees and how these resources facilitate a more informed decision-making process concerning their retirement planning.

Employee Education on Pension Options: IBM takes several measures to educate its employees about pension options. This includes providing detailed plan documentation, access to financial advisors, and online resources that explain various aspects of the pension plan. To improve communication, IBM could further enhance these efforts by offering more frequent informational workshops and personalized counseling sessions, which would help employees make informed decisions about their retirement planning.

What are the tax implications for employees participating in the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Personal Pension Plan, particularly in reference to the latest IRS limits for 2024? Discuss how IBM aligns its pension contributions with IRS regulations and what employees should know about the potential tax benefits linked to their retirement savings.

Tax Implications for Plan Participants: The tax implications for employees participating in IBM’s Personal Pension Plan are significant, especially with respect to the latest IRS limits for 2024. IBM aligns its pension contributions with these regulations, offering tax benefits such as deferred taxation on contributions and earnings until withdrawal. Employees should be aware of the annual contribution limits set by the IRS and understand how these affect their taxable income and retirement savings.

Can you detail how the defined benefit cash balance structure of the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) pension plan works? Explain how this structure provides certainty and predictability for employees nearing retirement and compare it to traditional defined contribution plans available in the industry.

Defined Benefit Cash Balance Structure: IBM's defined benefit cash balance plan provides certainty and predictability by crediting participants' accounts with a set percentage of their annual earnings plus interest credits, which are independent of the plan’s investment performance. This structure benefits employees by providing a stable accumulation of retirement benefits, contrasting with defined contribution plans where retirement savings are subject to market fluctuations. This predictability is especially valuable for employees nearing retirement, who might be concerned about market volatility.

How does the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) approach the issue of pension plan sustainability and funding? Discuss how management of IBM ensures the financial stability of the pension plan and what strategies are employed to maintain adequate funding levels for future payouts.

Pension Plan Sustainability and Funding: To ensure the financial stability and sustainability of its pension plan, IBM employs strategic management practices, including regular funding contributions and conservative investment strategies. Additionally, IBM regularly reviews its plan's funding status and makes adjustments to ensure it meets future obligations. This proactive management helps maintain the plan’s health, ensuring its ability to meet the promised benefits to retirees.

In what ways can the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) improve its pension plan offerings to attract and retain top talent? Evaluate the current competitive landscape and discuss how enhancing the pension plan could provide IBM with a strategic advantage in the recruitment of skilled professionals.

Improving Pension Offerings: To attract and retain top talent, IBM could enhance its pension offerings by increasing the benefits or flexibility of the plan. For instance, offering higher accrual rates or more diverse investment options could make the plan more attractive. Analyzing competitive trends and employee preferences could guide IBM in refining its pension benefits to offer a more compelling value proposition in the competitive tech industry landscape.

How does the retirement counseling process work for employees of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) when preparing for retirement? Provide an overview of the resources and tools available to employees and how IBM can better support its workforce in achieving their retirement goals.

Retirement Counseling Process at IBM: IBM provides a comprehensive retirement counseling process that includes access to personal financial advisors, detailed plan documentation, and online planning tools. To better support its workforce in achieving retirement goals, IBM could expand its counseling services to offer more customized advice and increase the frequency of one-on-one sessions to address individual employee needs and concerns more effectively.

What steps does the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) take to ensure compliance with federal regulations regarding pension plans, and how does this compliance affect employees' benefits? Discuss the importance of regulatory compliance in the administration of the pension plan and how it impacts employees' trust in IBM's commitment to their financial well-being.

Compliance with Federal Regulations: IBM ensures compliance with all federal regulations concerning pension plans, which is crucial for maintaining the integrity and trustworthiness of its retirement benefits. Compliance involves regular audits, adherence to funding requirements, and transparent communication with plan participants about any changes. This strict adherence helps protect the benefits of employees and fosters trust in IBM’s commitment to their financial well-being.

How can employees of the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) contact the human resources department to learn more about their retirement benefits, specifically regarding the Personal Pension Plan? Discuss the available channels for communication and the types of information employees can expect to receive when reaching out to IBM for retirement-related inquiries.

Contacting IBM for Retirement Benefits Information: Employees of IBM can contact the human resources department to learn more about their retirement benefits through multiple channels, including dedicated support lines, email, and internal web portals. These channels provide access to comprehensive information on the Personal Pension Plan, and employees can expect to receive guidance on enrollment, benefit calculations, and plan options when reaching out for assistance.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

IBM offers a Retirement Benefit Account as part of its defined benefit plan. The plan provides a fixed contribution and guaranteed interest rate, ensuring stable growth of retirement benefits. Employees can choose between lump-sum payments or monthly annuities upon retirement. The plan provides retirement income based on years of service and final average pay, with a cash balance component that grows annually with interest credits.

IBM is implementing layoffs and restructuring efforts in 2024 to focus on high-growth areas like AI and cloud computing. The company is also adjusting its pension and 401(k) plans to align with these strategic priorities. Understanding these changes is crucial in the current economic and technological environment, as they reflect IBM's strategic direction and workforce management.

IBM offers both RSUs and stock options to its employees. RSUs vest over time, providing employees with shares upon vesting. Stock options allow employees to purchase shares at a set price, potentially benefiting from stock price increases.