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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Illinois Tool Works Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Illinois Tool Works: Illinois Tool Works (ITW) primarily partners with Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS) of Illinois as their healthcare provider. This choice reflects a focus on comprehensive coverage options for their employees, aligning with the company's commitment to employee health and well-being. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: In 2026, healthcare costs are expected to surge, with Blue Cross Blue Shield in Illinois anticipating an overall premium increase of approximately 27%. This spike is driven by a confluence of factors, including escalating medical expenses, diminishing federal premium subsidy support, and substantial hikes from major insurers. As the Affordable Care Act premiums rise sharply-potentially impacting 22 million enrollees-ITW's employees may face considerable out-of-pocket costs if no congressional action is taken to extend the enhanced subsidies. This underscores the necessity for proactive strategies in managing healthcare expenses amidst rapidly changing market dynamics. Click here to learn more

'Illinois Tool Works employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Illinois Tool Works employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What retirement savings options does Illinois Tool Works offer to its employees?

Illinois Tool Works offers a 401(k) plan as part of its retirement savings options for employees.

How can employees of Illinois Tool Works enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees of Illinois Tool Works can enroll in the 401(k) plan by completing the enrollment process through the company’s benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does Illinois Tool Works provide a company match for the 401(k) contributions?

Yes, Illinois Tool Works provides a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, subject to specific terms and conditions.

What is the maximum contribution limit for the 401(k) plan at Illinois Tool Works?

The maximum contribution limit for the 401(k) plan at Illinois Tool Works is determined by the IRS guidelines, which can change annually.

Can employees of Illinois Tool Works take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, employees of Illinois Tool Works may have the option to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to the plan's rules.

What investment options are available in the Illinois Tool Works 401(k) plan?

The Illinois Tool Works 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles.

How often can employees change their contribution amount to the Illinois Tool Works 401(k) plan?

Employees of Illinois Tool Works can typically change their contribution amount on a quarterly basis or as specified in the plan details.

What happens to my Illinois Tool Works 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave Illinois Tool Works, you can choose to roll over your 401(k) balance to another retirement account, keep it in the Illinois Tool Works plan (if eligible), or withdraw the funds, subject to taxes and penalties.

Is there a vesting schedule for the company match in the Illinois Tool Works 401(k) plan?

Yes, Illinois Tool Works has a vesting schedule for the company match, which means employees must work for a certain period to fully own the matched contributions.

Can part-time employees participate in the Illinois Tool Works 401(k) plan?

Yes, part-time employees at Illinois Tool Works may be eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan, depending on specific criteria set by the company.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Name of Pension Plan: Illinois Tool Works Pension Plan Years of Service and Age Qualification: Employees typically need to have a minimum of 5 years of service to qualify for the pension plan. Full benefits may be available to employees who are at least 65 years old or have reached a combination of age and service requirements totaling at least 85 years. Pension Formula: The pension is calculated based on years of service and the average of the highest-paid years of salary. For example, it may be calculated as 1.5% of the average of the highest 5 years of salary multiplied by years of service. Name of 401(k) Plan: Illinois Tool Works 401(k) Plan Who Qualifies: All full-time employees who are at least 21 years old and have completed 90 days of service are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan. 401(k) Plan Features: Employees can contribute a percentage of their salary up to the annual limit set by the IRS. The company may provide matching contributions up to a certain percentage of the employee's contributions. Document: Illinois Tool Works 2024 Benefits Summary

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Illinois Tool Works announced a restructuring plan aimed at streamlining operations and improving efficiency. This plan included workforce reductions in certain sectors to adapt to shifting market demands and economic pressures. The company stated that these changes are intended to bolster its competitive position in a challenging economic environment. The importance of addressing this news is heightened due to the current economic landscape, where companies are adjusting their structures to maintain profitability amid fluctuating economic conditions. Understanding these changes is crucial for employees and stakeholders to navigate the evolving business environment and its impact on their roles and benefits.

ITW offers stock options and RSUs as part of their employee compensation packages. Stock options at ITW allow employees to purchase company stock at a set price, usually granted to senior executives and key employees. ITW provides RSUs, which are granted to employees as a form of equity compensation, usually vesting over several years. The company typically awards these to employees based on performance and seniority.

Health Insurance: ITW offers comprehensive health insurance plans, including medical, dental, and vision coverage. Employees can choose from multiple plan options to fit their needs. Wellness Programs: The company provides wellness programs that include resources for mental health, fitness, and preventive care. Retirement Savings: ITW offers 401(k) plans with company matching contributions and other financial wellness programs.