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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Kemper Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Kemper Healthcare Provider: Kemper provides health insurance through its partnerships with various insurers. Notably, they collaborate with larger health insurance companies in the industry, and specific healthcare provider information can vary by state and plan. It's essential for policyholders to check with Kemper directly or refer to their policy documentation for the most accurate healthcare provider details pertinent to their coverage. Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we approach 2026, health insurance premiums across the ACA marketplace are forecasted to reach unprecedented levels, marked by increases that may exceed 60% in certain markets. The convergence of rising medical costs, potential loss of federal subsidies, and aggressive rate hikes from major insurers creates a challenging landscape for consumers. With estimates suggesting that more than 22 million ACA enrollees may face out-of-pocket premium spikes of over 75%, stakeholders are urged to consider proactive strategies for managing their healthcare expenses. Importantly, the anticipated substantial premium increases necessitate careful planning and evaluation during the upcoming open enrollment period. Click here to learn more

'Kemper employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Kemper employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the purpose of Kemper's 401(k) plan?

The purpose of Kemper's 401(k) plan is to help employees save for retirement by allowing them to contribute a portion of their salary on a pre-tax or Roth after-tax basis.

How can employees enroll in Kemper's 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in Kemper's 401(k) plan by accessing the company's benefits portal during the enrollment period or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does Kemper offer a company match for 401(k) contributions?

Yes, Kemper offers a company match for 401(k) contributions, which helps employees increase their retirement savings.

What types of investment options are available in Kemper's 401(k) plan?

Kemper's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

Can employees change their contribution rate to Kemper's 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees can change their contribution rate to Kemper's 401(k) plan at any time, subject to the plan’s guidelines.

What is the vesting schedule for Kemper's 401(k) company match?

The vesting schedule for Kemper's 401(k) company match typically follows a graded vesting schedule, which means employees earn ownership of the match over a period of time.

Are there any fees associated with Kemper's 401(k) plan?

Yes, like many retirement plans, Kemper's 401(k) plan may have administrative fees and investment-related expenses, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

How often can employees access their 401(k) account information at Kemper?

Employees can access their 401(k) account information at Kemper any time through the online benefits portal or by contacting the plan administrator.

What happens to my Kemper 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave Kemper, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over to an IRA, transferring it to a new employer's plan, or cashing it out, subject to taxes and penalties.

Can employees take loans against their Kemper 401(k) plan?

Yes, Kemper allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) plan, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan documents.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Pension Plan Name: Kemper's pension plan is known as the "Kemper Pension Plan". Pension Formula: The pension formula includes a defined benefit based on years of service and average salary. For Kemper, the formula is generally expressed as a percentage of the employee’s average salary multiplied by years of service. Years of Service and Age Qualification: To qualify for the pension plan, employees typically need a minimum of 5 years of service and must be at least 55 years old. Specific qualifications may vary. 401(k) Plan Name: The 401(k) plan offered by Kemper is known as the "Kemper 401(k) Plan". Eligibility: Employees are generally eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing 30 days of employment. Kemper offers various investment options and may provide company matching contributions.

Restructuring Layoffs: In early 2024, Kemper announced significant restructuring efforts due to ongoing economic pressures and a need to streamline operations. The company plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 10% as part of this restructuring. This move is intended to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to the changing insurance market dynamics. The decision reflects broader trends in the industry where companies are realigning their resources to better cope with current economic conditions. Company Benefit Changes: Alongside layoffs, Kemper is also revising its employee benefits structure. The company is scaling back on certain benefits and altering pension plans to align with its new financial strategies. These changes come in response to the increasing costs associated with employee benefits and a need to reallocate resources to critical business areas. It’s crucial to monitor such developments as they can significantly impact employees’ financial planning, especially in light of current economic and investment uncertainties.

Kemper offers stock options and RSUs to its employees as part of its compensation package. For 2022, Kemper provided stock options and RSUs based on performance and tenure, detailed in the company's annual report (Page 45). In 2023, Kemper continued offering similar options with updated terms for new and existing employees (Page 52). For 2024, Kemper adjusted the stock options and RSU grants to align with market conditions and company performance (Page 57).

Health Insurance: Kemper offers a variety of health insurance plans, including PPO and HMO options. Benefits typically include coverage for preventive care, emergency services, hospitalization, and prescription drugs. Health Savings Account (HSA): Employees enrolled in high-deductible health plans may be eligible for an HSA, which allows pre-tax contributions to save for qualified medical expenses. Flexible Spending Account (FSA): Kemper provides an FSA option for employees to use pre-tax dollars for eligible healthcare expenses. Employee Assistance Program (EAP): Offers confidential support for personal and work-related issues, including mental health services.