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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Knights of Columbus Employees

'Knights of Columbus employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Knights of Columbus employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the factors that determine an employee's retirement benefits under the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan, and how are these factors influenced by an employee's length of service and compensation? Understanding the nuances of these factors can help employees plan for their retirement more effectively. Additionally, how does the recent shift in tenure and wages in the industry affect the calculation of these retirement benefits for employees of the Christian Brothers organization?

Factors Determining Retirement Benefits: Under the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan (CBERP), retirement benefits are determined by a combination of years of continuous service, credited past and future service, and compensation. The benefit formulas consider W-2 earnings and past service contributions if applicable. The length of service increases the number of credited years, leading to higher benefits, while higher compensation during service periods also boosts the overall calculation(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

How does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan define "vesting" and what are the implications for employees regarding their retirement benefits as outlined in the plan? Furthermore, what strategies can employees implement to ensure they maximize their vesting and thus, their retirement fund contributions during their tenure with the Christian Brothers organization?

Vesting: Vesting refers to an employee's right to receive retirement benefits, and under CBERP, employees become vested after 4 years and 9 months of continuous service. Employees can always receive the return of their contributions plus interest, but to maximize vesting, they should maintain continuous employment for the full vesting period(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

Can you elaborate on the "Golden Rule of 90" regarding early retirement and the criteria that must be met for employees of Christian Brothers to qualify for this benefit? How does meeting this qualification potentially affect an employee's retirement income stream and financial planning going forward?

Golden Rule of 90: The "Golden Rule of 90" allows employees to retire early without a reduction in benefits if their age and years of service sum to 90, provided they are at least 55 years old. Meeting this qualification offers employees a full retirement benefit without the reduction typically associated with early retirement(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

What steps should Christian Brothers employees take if they become temporarily disabled and wish to initiate their retirement benefits? Additionally, what provisions does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan offer to ensure that the disability status does not adversely impact their overall retirement benefits?

Temporary Disability and Retirement Benefits: Employees who become temporarily disabled may initiate retirement benefits if they meet Social Security’s disability requirements. If qualified before July 1, 2018, employees continue to accrue benefits until normal retirement without employer contributions. Starting benefits early due to disability results in a cessation of future accruals(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

In the context of re-employment after retirement, what specific conditions must Christian Brothers employees be aware of under the retirement plan regarding their eligibility for benefits? Furthermore, how can returning to work impact their benefits and what should they consider when making this decision?

Re-employment After Retirement: Employees who return to work for a participating employer after retirement must be cautious, as working more than the required hours will suspend their retirement benefits. This could reduce their income stream and interrupt the collection of benefits(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

What methods does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan outline for employees to designate beneficiaries for their retirement benefits, and how do those designations change upon events like marriage or divorce? Understanding these provisions is crucial for employees to ensure their final wishes regarding benefits are honored.

Beneficiary Designations: CBERP allows employees to designate beneficiaries for their retirement benefits. These designations can be updated after major life events such as marriage or divorce. Employees should ensure that their designations reflect current relationships to ensure that their wishes are honored(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

How can employees of Christian Brothers effectively contact the benefits department for further clarification on their retirement benefits? What information should they prepare to facilitate a productive conversation regarding the specifics of their retirement plan?

Contacting the Benefits Department: Christian Brothers employees can contact the Benefits Department at 800-807-0700 or via email at rpscustomerservice@cbservices.org. Employees should prepare personal and employment details, along with specific questions about their plan, to facilitate a productive conversation(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

What are the available forms of benefit distribution upon retirement for employees in the Christian Brothers organization, and how does the choice between these options affect overall retirement security? Employees must weigh their options carefully to ensure they select a distribution method aligned with their financial needs.

Benefit Distribution Forms: CBERP offers several forms of benefit distribution, including life-only options and joint and survivor annuities. The choice between these options significantly affects retirement security. For example, choosing a joint and survivor annuity reduces the primary benefit but provides ongoing income for a spouse(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

How does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan address potential changes to the plan and the rights of employees in such instances? Understanding the procedures in place for plan amendments is vital for employees to stay informed about their benefits and rights.

Plan Amendments: CBERP includes provisions for amending the plan. Employees' rights to accrued benefits are protected, meaning that any modifications will not affect benefits that have already been earned. Understanding these protections can help employees stay informed about changes(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

Can you explain the relationship between Social Security benefits and the retirement benefits provided through the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan? Specifically, how will employeesâ€™ Social Security benefits interact with their retirement funds, and what should they consider when planning for a holistic retirement income strategy?

Interaction with Social Security: CBERP retirement benefits do not reduce or integrate with Social Security benefits. Employees need to consider both sources of income separately when planning their overall retirement strategy(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).