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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Lubrizol Employees

'Lubrizol employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Lubrizol employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the considerations Lubrizol employees should take into account when deciding between a monthly annuity payment and a one-time lump sum payment from the BHCPP Plan? How does each option affect their overall retirement strategy, particularly regarding tax implications and cash flow management?

Monthly Annuity vs. Lump Sum Payment: Lubrizol employees choosing between a monthly annuity and a lump sum payment should consider their personal financial needs, tax situation, and cash flow. The lump sum payment offers a one-time cash amount that can be invested or used immediately but could be subject to higher taxes if not rolled over properly. On the other hand, an annuity provides steady income for life, which may be beneficial for long-term cash flow management. Consulting a financial advisor is crucial to determine the best option based on individual circumstances(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

In what ways do early retirement age milestones affect the value of retirement benefits for Lubrizol employees? Specifically, how do the age thresholds of 55 and 62 impact the reduction of benefits, and what strategies can employees employ to maximize their benefits around these key ages?

Early Retirement Age Milestones: Retirement age milestones, particularly 55 and 62, play a significant role in determining benefit values. At age 55, employees with 10 years of service receive a partially subsidized early retirement benefit, reducing the financial penalty for early retirement. At age 62, employees qualify for a full early retirement subsidy, which significantly boosts benefit value. Employees should consider these age thresholds when planning their retirement strategy(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How does the current interest rate environment influence the lump sum value offered to retiring Lubrizol employees? Can you elaborate on how employees can use the pension modeler to forecast the potential financial outcomes of their lump sum offer in relation to interest rate changes?

Interest Rates and Lump Sum Value: The lump sum value for Lubrizol retirees is heavily influenced by the Federal interest rates. As interest rates rise, lump sum payments decrease, and vice versa. Employees can use the pension modeler provided by Lubrizol to forecast how interest rate changes will affect their lump sum payment. This tool allows employees to simulate different scenarios based on their planned retirement dates and interest rate assumptions(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

What resources and tools does Lubrizol provide to help employees understand the implications of their retirement benefits? Additionally, how can employees utilize Empower's financial planning team to align their retirement savings and pension benefits with their long-term financial goals?

Resources for Retirement Planning: Lubrizol provides several resources to help employees understand their retirement benefits. These include the pension modeler, which simulates retirement scenarios, and access to Empower’s financial planning team. Employees can use these tools to align their retirement savings and pension benefits with long-term goals and gain a clearer picture of what retirement may look like(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

In the context of the BHCPP Plan, what are the steps Lubrizol employees should follow to ensure they receive the correct retirement kit and benefit calculation based on the upcoming interest rates? What are the key deadlines and documentation required for making an informed decision?

Steps for Accurate Retirement Kit and Benefit Calculation: To receive the correct retirement kit and benefit calculation, Lubrizol employees need to request a retirement kit from the BHCPP Pension Service Center before key deadlines. For example, those targeting a benefit commencement date of December 1, 2022, must request a kit by November 1, 2022. Using the pension modeler can also help employees estimate their lump sum based on upcoming interest rates(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How do Lubrizol's retirement benefits integrate with Social Security and other personal savings an employee may have? What should employees consider when evaluating their total retirement package, and how can they effectively project their income in retirement?

Integration with Social Security and Other Savings: Lubrizol’s retirement benefits should be considered alongside Social Security and personal savings. Employees can model their total retirement income using Empower's tools, which include data from their pension and 401(k). It's essential for employees to project their income from all sources to ensure financial stability in retirement(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How does the pension modeler work for Lubrizol employees, and what unique features does it offer to help in planning their retirement? Can you discuss specific scenarios that employees might model, such as varying retirement dates or different financial assumptions?

Pension Modeler for Retirement Planning: The pension modeler available to Lubrizol employees is a powerful tool that allows them to simulate different retirement scenarios, including varying retirement ages and financial assumptions. Employees can model up to three scenarios simultaneously, enabling them to make informed decisions about the timing of their retirement and the potential financial outcomes(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

What information should Lubrizol employees gather prior to consulting with personal financial planners or the Lubrizol-sponsored CFPs? How can being well-prepared enhance the quality of advice and strategies received during such consultations?

Preparation for Financial Planner Consultations: Prior to consulting with financial planners, Lubrizol employees should gather comprehensive details about their personal financial situation, including monthly income, savings, expenses, and retirement goals. Being well-prepared will enhance the quality of advice they receive and enable more effective retirement planning(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

Can you explain the impact of Federal interest rates on the calculation of lump sum payments for Lubrizol retirees? How frequently are these rates updated, and where can employees find the most recent data relevant to their retirement planning?

Impact of Federal Interest Rates on Lump Sum Payments: Federal interest rates, updated annually in October, significantly affect the calculation of lump sum payments for Lubrizol retirees. These rates are used to discount future annuity payments to present value. Employees can find the latest interest rate data on the IRS website or through Lubrizol’s pension modeler(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…)(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How can Lubrizol employees contact the BHCPP Pension Service Center for further assistance regarding their retirement benefits? What specific information should they have on hand to facilitate a productive conversation about their retirement options? These questions are designed to provide depth and complexity, encouraging detailed exploration and resources related to the retirement process for Lubrizol employees.

Contacting the BHCPP Pension Service Center: Lubrizol employees can contact the BHCPP Pension Service Center at 877-459-2403 for assistance with retirement benefits. To have a productive conversation, employees should have their retirement kit request details, planned retirement dates, and personal financial information readily available(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…)(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).