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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Medtronic PLC Employees

'Medtronic PLC employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Medtronic PLC employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the eligibility requirements for the Medtronic Retirement Plan, and how do they apply to employees who were hired before and after the cut-off date of January 1, 2016? Employees need to understand these nuances, as they affect the types of retirement benefits they may be entitled to under the Medtronic Retirement Plan.

Eligibility Requirements: Employees hired before January 1, 2016, may be eligible for either the Final Average Pay Pension or the Personal Pension Account benefit, depending on their hire date. Employees hired or rehired after January 1, 2016, are not eligible for the Medtronic Retirement Plan(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

How does the vesting process work for benefits accrued under the two types of pension benefits offered by Medtronic, namely the Final Average Pay Pension and the Personal Pension Account? Understanding how long employees need to stay with Medtronic to secure their benefits can influence their retirement decisions.

Vesting Process: The Final Average Pay Pension benefit becomes nonforfeitable after five years of service or reaching age 62, while the Personal Pension Account becomes vested after three years of service(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

Can Medtronic employees expect any differences in the way their pension benefits are calculated if they decide to retire early versus waiting until normal retirement age? It's crucial for employees to know how early retirement might impact their payouts from the Medtronic Retirement Plan.

Early vs. Normal Retirement Calculation: Early retirement benefits under the Final Average Pay Pension will be reduced based on the age at retirement. For example, at age 55, employees receive 50% of the normal benefit(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

In what ways can Medtronic employees maximize their Personal Pension Account benefits, especially regarding contributions and interest credits during their employment? Employees should consider strategies that could enhance the value of their retirement accounts when retiring from Medtronic.

Maximizing Personal Pension Account: Medtronic credits 5% of eligible compensation annually to the Personal Pension Account, which also accrues interest based on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

How do the various forms of retirement benefit payments, such as annuities and lump sums, work within the Medtronic Retirement Plan? Employees must comprehend each option's benefits and drawbacks to make informed decisions about their retirement payouts.

Benefit Payment Options: Employees can choose between receiving their pension as a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuity, or a lump sum payment depending on their circumstances(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

What protections does the Medtronic Retirement Plan offer regarding spousal benefits and qualified domestic relations orders (QDROs)? This understanding is particularly important for employees who may go through life changes, such as marriage or divorce.

Spousal Benefits and QDROs: The plan provides protections for spousal benefits, including joint and survivor annuities. QDROs may mandate the division of pension benefits in the case of divorce(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…)(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

How can employees ensure they receive all the necessary forms and meet the deadlines required to initiate their retirement benefits from Medtronic? The efficiency in this process is key for a smooth transition into retirement.

Forms and Deadlines for Retirement Benefits: Employees must contact the Retirement Service Center and submit required forms within 180 days of retirement to start receiving their benefits(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

What specific steps should employees take if they receive a benefit denial or feel that they have been underpaid by the Medtronic Retirement Plan? Knowing their rights and the process for appealing decisions is essential for protecting their financial interests.

Handling Benefit Denials: Employees can appeal a benefit denial by submitting a written claim to the Plan Administrator within one year of discovering the issue. A formal appeals process is in place(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

How does the Medtronic Retirement Plan guarantee the protection of pension benefits in the event of plan termination or underfunding? Employees will want clarity on how their pensions are safeguarded against uncertainties that could affect their retirement security.

Plan Termination Protections: The Medtronic Retirement Plan is insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), which protects pension benefits in the event of plan termination(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).

For employees seeking additional information or clarification about their retirement benefits with Medtronic, what are the best ways to contact the Retirement Service Center? Establishing contact routes can assist employees in navigating their retirement planning effectively.

Contacting the Retirement Service Center: Employees can reach the Retirement Service Center for assistance by calling 1-844-335-9042 or visiting retirement.medtronic.com(Medtronic_2016_June_Ret…).