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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Mercury General Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Offers medical, dental, vision, life insurance, and HSAs/FSAs, with up to 95% employer coverage depending on the plan3. As ACA subsidies phase out, Mercurys generous employer contributions and comprehensive benefits may shield employees from the financial impact of rising premiums. Click here to learn more

'Mercury General employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Mercury General employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What type of retirement savings plan does Mercury General offer to its employees?

Mercury General offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.

Is the 401(k) plan at Mercury General available to all employees?

Yes, the 401(k) plan at Mercury General is available to all eligible employees.

What is the employer match policy for the 401(k) plan at Mercury General?

Mercury General provides a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, typically matching a percentage of employee contributions, up to a certain limit.

How can employees at Mercury General enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees at Mercury General can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company’s HR portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What are the contribution limits for the 401(k) plan at Mercury General?

The contribution limits for the 401(k) plan at Mercury General follow the IRS guidelines, which are updated annually.

Does Mercury General offer a Roth 401(k) option?

Yes, Mercury General offers a Roth 401(k) option, allowing employees to contribute after-tax dollars.

Can employees at Mercury General take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Mercury General allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to specific terms and conditions.

What investment options are available in the Mercury General 401(k) plan?

The Mercury General 401(k) plan includes a variety of investment options, such as mutual funds, stocks, and bonds.

How often can employees at Mercury General change their 401(k) contribution amounts?

Employees at Mercury General can change their 401(k) contribution amounts at any time, subject to plan rules.

What happens to my 401(k) balance if I leave Mercury General?

If you leave Mercury General, you can choose to roll over your 401(k) balance to another retirement account, cash it out, or leave it in the plan if eligible.

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Pension Plan Name: Mercury General does not offer a traditional defined benefit pension plan. The company primarily focuses on offering a 401(k) plan to its employees. 401(k) Plan Name: Mercury General Corporation 401(k) Plan Eligibility: Employees are eligible to participate in the Mercury General Corporation 401(k) Plan after completing 30 days of service. The plan is available to full-time employees. Company Match: Mercury General provides a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, though specifics about the match percentage may vary based on the company’s policies and plan documents.

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Mercury General announced a significant restructuring plan aimed at streamlining operations and improving efficiency. This move was driven by the need to adapt to changing market conditions and the economic environment. The restructuring included layoffs in several departments, with a focus on reducing operational costs and reallocating resources to more strategic areas. The company's management emphasized that these changes were necessary to enhance competitiveness and long-term sustainability. The impact of these layoffs on employees and the broader organizational structure is a key concern amid current economic uncertainties.

Description: Mercury General's 2022 annual report details the stock options and RSUs offered to employees. Stock options are generally available to executives and key employees, while RSUs may be granted to a broader range of employees based on performance.

Benefits Overview: Offers a comprehensive benefits package including medical, dental, and vision insurance. They provide health savings accounts (HSAs), flexible spending accounts (FSAs), and wellness programs. Medical Plans: Includes PPO and HMO plans. Employees can choose between different levels of coverage based on their needs. Wellness Programs: Includes access to fitness resources, mental health support, and preventive care programs.