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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Moderna Employees

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'Moderna employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Moderna employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Moderna?

Moderna offers a 401(k) plan that allows employees to save for retirement by contributing a portion of their salary on a pre-tax or Roth after-tax basis.

How can I enroll in Moderna's 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in Moderna's 401(k) plan through the company’s benefits portal during the open enrollment period or within 30 days of their hire date.

Does Moderna offer a company match for the 401(k) contributions?

Yes, Moderna provides a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, which helps boost retirement savings.

What is the maximum contribution limit for Moderna's 401(k) plan?

For 2023, the maximum contribution limit for Moderna's 401(k) plan is $22,500, with an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500 for employees aged 50 and older.

Can I change my contribution percentage to Moderna's 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees can change their contribution percentage to Moderna's 401(k) plan at any time through the benefits portal.

What investment options are available in Moderna's 401(k) plan?

Moderna's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and company stock.

How often can I change my investment choices in Moderna's 401(k) plan?

Employees can change their investment choices in Moderna's 401(k) plan at any time, allowing for flexibility in managing their retirement savings.

Is there a vesting schedule for the company match in Moderna's 401(k) plan?

Yes, Moderna has a vesting schedule for the company match, which typically requires employees to work for a certain number of years before they fully own the matched contributions.

Can I take a loan against my 401(k) with Moderna?

Yes, Moderna allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) balance, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan document.

What happens to my 401(k) plan if I leave Moderna?

If you leave Moderna, you have several options for your 401(k) plan, including rolling it over to an IRA or a new employer's plan, cashing it out, or leaving it with Moderna.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Moderna offers a comprehensive retirement benefits package, which includes a defined contribution 401(k) plan. The company's 401(k) plan allows employees to make contributions through payroll deductions, with Moderna matching contributions based on employee elections. As of 2023, the contribution limit for Moderna employees participating in the 401(k) plan is $22,500, with an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500 for employees aged 50 and older (Mondaq) (KPMG). These limits reflect increases compared to the prior year, consistent with IRS guidelines. The plan offers both traditional 401(k) and Roth 401(k) options, allowing for tax-deferred or post-tax contributions, depending on the employee's financial strategy. Moderna also offers employer matching contributions, enhancing retirement savings for participating employees. Moderna’s plan provides various investment options, allowing employees to customize their retirement portfolios based on risk tolerance and retirement goals (Mondaq). Moderna uses its own specific acronyms, such as "RSP" (Retirement Savings Plan) for the 401(k) plan and "ModMatch" for its matching contribution feature. Employees become eligible for the 401(k) plan upon hire, and those who work at least 500 hours over three consecutive 12-month periods qualify to make contributions starting January 2024, as part of the SECURE Act amendments

Moderna announced layoffs in 2024, primarily affecting its manufacturing unit, as part of a resizing strategy linked to its COVID production footprint. The company decided to cut jobs due to reduced demand for its COVID-related products and to optimize manufacturing costs. CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized the importance of ongoing cost improvements in manufacturing as the company pivots away from focusing solely on COVID vaccines toward a broader pharmaceutical portfolio. Moderna expanded its headcount by 44% in 2023, but these layoffs reflect a necessary adjustment to its business strategy moving forward (FiercePharma).

Moderna provides its employees with stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) as part of their long-term incentive compensation. These programs are designed to align employee interests with shareholder value by granting ownership stakes in Moderna. Employees may receive Non-Qualified Stock Options (NSOs) and RSUs, which vest over time. NSOs give employees the right to buy Moderna stock at a pre-determined price, while RSUs grant shares upon vesting without the need for an initial purchase (SEC.gov) (Moderna). In 2022, Moderna reported that its stock option grants focused on driving financial and operational goals, including stock price appreciation. The company ensures that the majority of executive compensation is tied to at-risk components like stock options and RSUs. These awards are typically available to executives and employees in key roles (SEC.gov) (Moderna). The RSU program at Moderna also emphasizes long-term retention and performance, rewarding employees based on their contributions to the company's success. Moderna's stock options and RSU plans in 2023 and 2024 remained focused on aligning long-term incentives with business objectives, including the expansion of its pipeline and manufacturing capacity (SEC.gov). Executives and high-performing employees across various departments are eligible for these equity awards, ensuring their incentives are linked to Moderna’s overall performance (Moderna).

Health Insurance Options: Moderna provides multiple insurance plans, including health, dental, and vision coverage, ensuring that employees have access to preventive and medical care. These plans also include options for telemedicine and wellness care, reflecting industry trends. Lifestyle Spending Account: This program offers employees an annual allowance they can use towards fitness, nutrition, and other wellness activities, helping them maintain a healthy lifestyle. Personal Enrichment Benefit: This unique benefit provides an annual stipend for personal growth, such as attending language classes or certification programs like yoga instruction. Mental Health Support: Moderna prioritizes mental health with programs that offer support through Employee Assistance Programs (EAP), which include confidential counseling services. Family and Parental Benefits: The company has generous parental leave programs and fertility benefits, which have become standard in their competitive benefits package.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Moderna at , ; or by calling them at .

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