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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Moody's Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Moody's: Moody's Corporation itself is primarily a financial services company known for its analytical and credit rating services. It does not operate as a healthcare provider. However, within the healthcare sector, it analyzes health insurers and hospital systems, assessing their financial viability and operational performance. Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: In 2026, healthcare costs are projected to soar, driven by several interlinked factors. A significant sunset of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies could lead to out-of-pocket premiums skyrocketing by over 75% for many consumers. Compounding this, record-breaking requests for premium increases -with some states reporting hikes of over 60% -reveal an industry grappling with heightened medical expenses and operational pressures. Insurers, even with reported profits exceeding $31 billion, face the reality that escalating rates and diminishing financial support threaten the affordability of healthcare coverage for millions moving forward. Click here to learn more

'Moody's employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Moody's employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What type of retirement plan does Moody's offer to its employees?

Moody's offers a 401(k) savings plan to help employees save for retirement.

How can employees enroll in Moody's 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in Moody's 401(k) plan through the company's benefits portal during the enrollment period.

Does Moody's match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Moody's provides a matching contribution to employee 401(k) accounts, subject to certain limits.

What is the maximum contribution limit for Moody's 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for Moody's 401(k) plan is in line with IRS guidelines, which can change annually.

Can employees at Moody's take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Moody's allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to specific terms and conditions.

What investment options are available in Moody's 401(k) plan?

Moody's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds and target-date funds.

How often can employees change their contribution amounts in Moody's 401(k) plan?

Employees can change their contribution amounts to Moody's 401(k) plan at any time, subject to plan rules.

What happens to my 401(k) savings if I leave Moody's?

If you leave Moody's, you can roll over your 401(k) savings into another qualified retirement account or leave it in the plan, depending on the balance.

Is there a vesting schedule for Moody's 401(k) matching contributions?

Yes, Moody's has a vesting schedule for matching contributions, which determines when employees fully own those funds.

Can employees at Moody's access their 401(k) savings before retirement?

Employees at Moody's may access their 401(k) savings before retirement under certain circumstances, such as financial hardship.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Name of Plan: Moody's does not appear to have a traditional defined benefit pension plan but instead offers a 401(k) plan. Years of Service and Age Qualification: Specific details on years of service and age qualifications may not be applicable as there is no traditional pension plan. Pension Formula: Not applicable. Who Qualifies: Employees are typically eligible for benefits under the 401(k) plan rather than a pension plan. Name of Plan: Moody’s 401(k) Retirement Plan. Who Qualifies: Employees who meet the eligibility requirements can participate. Typically, full-time employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan. Contribution Details: Employees can contribute a percentage of their salary, and Moody’s may offer a matching contribution.

Restructuring and Layoffs: Moody's Corporation announced a significant restructuring initiative in early 2023 aimed at streamlining operations and reducing costs. This restructuring included the elimination of several positions across various departments. The decision was driven by a need to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to changing market conditions. The layoffs affected both senior and junior roles, emphasizing the company's strategic shift towards more agile and streamlined operations.

Company Filings: Look at Moody’s annual reports (10-K) and quarterly reports (10-Q) filed with the SEC. These documents often contain detailed information on stock options and RSUs. Investor Relations: Visit Moody’s Investor Relations website. They usually provide access to annual reports, earnings releases, and proxy statements that include details about compensation packages. Financial News Websites: Sites like Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or Reuters may have articles or reports about Moody’s compensation practices and stock options. SEC EDGAR Database: Search for Moody’s filings in the EDGAR database for detailed financial and compensation information.

2023 Adjustments: Moody’s made adjustments to their healthcare plans in 2023 to offer more flexible options, including increased contributions to HSAs and expanded telemedicine services. 2024 Initiatives: For 2024, Moody’s has introduced new wellness programs and enhanced mental health support as part of their benefits package. This includes expanded access to counseling and mental health resources. General Trends: Moody’s is aligning with broader trends in the industry towards more flexible and employee-centric healthcare solutions, emphasizing mental health and preventive care.