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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Murphy USA Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Murphy USA: Murphy USA's healthcare provider network includes a variety of options, primarily focused on major insurance companies that offer group health insurance plans for its employees. The specific providers can vary over time and by location, but typically include carriers such as UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, and Blue Cross Blue Shield, among others. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As Murphy USA employees navigate the rising tide of healthcare costs, the looming increases for 2026 present significant challenges. With ACA marketplace premiums expected to surge by an average of 20%, many employees may face substantially higher out-of-pocket expenses. These increases are driven by multiple factors, including escalating medical costs, the potential loss of enhanced federal premium subsidies, and changing employer benefit structures aimed at managing expenses. Consequently, employees at Murphy USA are advised to closely review their health benefit options and prepare for a potential increase in their personal healthcare expenditures next year. Click here to learn more

'Murphy USA employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Murphy USA employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the purpose of the 401(k) plan at Murphy USA?

The 401(k) plan at Murphy USA is designed to help employees save for retirement by allowing them to contribute a portion of their salary on a pre-tax basis.

How can employees at Murphy USA enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees at Murphy USA can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company’s benefits portal during the open enrollment period or upon their hire date.

Does Murphy USA match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Murphy USA offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees maximize their retirement savings.

What is the maximum contribution limit for the 401(k) plan at Murphy USA?

The maximum contribution limit for the 401(k) plan at Murphy USA follows the IRS guidelines, which are updated annually. Employees should check the current limits for the year.

Can employees at Murphy USA take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Murphy USA allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan.

What investment options are available in Murphy USA's 401(k) plan?

Murphy USA's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

How often can employees at Murphy USA change their 401(k) contributions?

Employees at Murphy USA can change their 401(k) contributions at any time, subject to the plan's rules and guidelines.

Is there a vesting schedule for the employer match in Murphy USA's 401(k) plan?

Yes, Murphy USA has a vesting schedule for the employer match, which determines how much of the matched contributions employees are entitled to based on their years of service.

Can employees at Murphy USA access their 401(k) funds before retirement?

Employees at Murphy USA may access their 401(k) funds before retirement under certain circumstances, such as hardship withdrawals or after reaching a specific age.

What happens to the 401(k) plan if an employee leaves Murphy USA?

If an employee leaves Murphy USA, they have several options regarding their 401(k) plan, including rolling it over to another qualified plan, cashing it out, or leaving it with Murphy USA.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Name of the Pension Plan: Identify the official name of Murphy USA’s pension plan. Years of Service and Age Qualification: Determine the requirements for employees to qualify for the pension plan, including years of service and age. Pension Formula: Review how the pension amount is calculated. Acronyms and Terminology: Collect relevant acronyms and terms related to Murphy USA’s pension plan. Name of the 401(k) Plan: Find out the official name of Murphy USA’s 401(k) plan. Qualification for 401(k) Plan: Identify who qualifies to participate in the 401(k) plan. Acronyms and Terminology: Collect relevant acronyms and terms related to Murphy USA’s 401(k) plan.

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Murphy USA announced a restructuring plan aimed at improving operational efficiency. This included some layoffs, particularly in non-core business units. The company cited the need to streamline operations and enhance profitability amidst a challenging economic climate. This restructuring is significant as it reflects broader trends in the industry where companies are adapting to economic uncertainties and competitive pressures. It is crucial to follow these changes due to their potential impact on employee benefits and organizational stability.

Murphy USA offered stock options and RSUs primarily to senior executives and certain key employees. These incentives were designed to align interests with shareholders and reward long-term performance. For specific details on stock options and RSUs, refer to Murphy USA’s 2022 Proxy Statement, Page 25.

Health Benefits Overview: Murphy USA offers a range of health benefits including medical, dental, and vision insurance. The plans are typically administered through major insurance carriers, providing various coverage levels. Healthcare Terms: Common terms include PPO (Preferred Provider Organization), HSA (Health Savings Account), and FSA (Flexible Spending Account).