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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Ohio National Mutual Employees

'Ohio National Mutual employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Ohio National Mutual employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What retirement plan options does Ohio State offer its employees, and how do these plans compare in terms of contribution rates and employer matching? Understanding the distinctions between the ARP Defined Contribution and OPERS Traditional Pension Plan is important for making informed retirement choices.

Retirement Plan Options: Ohio State offers several retirement plan options, including the ARP Defined Contribution, OPERS Member-Directed, OPERS Traditional Pension (Defined Benefit), and OPERS Combined Plan (Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution). Employees contribute 10% of their eligible compensation to these plans, and Ohio State contributes 14%. In the ARP, employees manage their investments, while OPERS plans involve a mixture of defined benefit formulas and employee contributions(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

How does the vesting schedule work for contributions made to the various retirement plans at Ohio State? Employees should have a clear understanding of when they become fully vested in employer contributions and how this affects their retirement benefits.

Vesting Schedule: For the ARP plan, both employee and university contributions are immediately vested. In the OPERS Member-Directed plan, employee contributions are immediately vested, but university contributions are vested over five years. For the OPERS Traditional Pension and Combined plans, vesting occurs in stages: employees become 33% vested after 5 years and 67% vested after 10 years(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

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Account Management Post-Employment: Upon termination or retirement, employees can either leave their balance with the provider, roll it over into another qualified account, or withdraw funds as lump sums, fixed-period payments, or annuities. OPERS also offers joint or multiple life annuities(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

Can you elaborate on the investment choices available under the Ohio State ARP Defined Contribution plan, and how does the investment risk differ from that of the OPERS plans? Itâ€™s essential to assess how employees can maximize their retirement savings through sound investment strategies.

Investment Choices and Risk: In the ARP Defined Contribution and OPERS Member-Directed plans, employees choose from various investment options, bearing all the associated risks and fees. In contrast, OPERS manages the assets in the Traditional Pension and the DB portion of the Combined Plan, so employees assume no investment risk(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

What criteria must be met for employees at Ohio State to qualify for disability benefits under the pension plans, and how are these benefits structured? Understanding the nuances of these benefits can be crucial for staff planning for unforeseen events.

Disability Benefits: Employees can qualify for disability benefits under OPERS after five years of service. Benefits are calculated based on service credits in the Traditional Pension and Combined Plans. The ARP plan offers no additional disability benefits beyond the vested account balance(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

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Interaction with Social Security: Participation in Ohio State's retirement plans may reduce Social Security benefits for eligible employees due to offset provisions. This can impact long-term retirement planning, so employees should consider this when making decisions(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

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Tax Implications: Contributions to Ohio State’s retirement plans are made on a pre-tax basis, meaning federal and state taxes are deferred until the time of withdrawal. Early withdrawals (before age 59½) may incur additional tax penalties(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

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Additional Benefits: Ohio State provides health care, disability, and survivor benefits to employees enrolled in the OPERS Traditional Pension and Combined Plans. Access to a Retiree Medical Account for healthcare expenses is available in some plans(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

How can Ohio State employees get in touch with the Human Resources department to learn more about retirement plan options, contribution limits, and other benefits? It's crucial for employees to know the right channels to obtain help regarding their retirement planning.

Human Resources Contact: Employees can contact the Office of Human Resources or their selected ARP provider for more information on retirement plan options, contribution limits, and other benefits. Ohio State also provides resources on its HR website(Ohio State_Retirement P…).

What changes, if any, are expected in Ohio State's retirement plans for the upcoming year, especially concerning contribution limits and other regulatory adjustments? Staying informed about potential changes can help employees proactively adjust their retirement savings strategies. These questions aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of retirement plans and associated benefits at Ohio State, facilitating employee engagement and informed decision-making.

Expected Plan Changes: Any changes to contribution limits or plan adjustments will likely be communicated through Ohio State’s HR department. It's essential for employees to stay updated through official HR channels to proactively adjust their retirement strategies(Ohio State_Retirement P…).