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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for PBF Energy Employees

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'PBF Energy employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'PBF Energy employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What is the primary purpose of PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan?

The primary purpose of PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan is to help employees save for retirement by allowing them to contribute a portion of their salary on a tax-deferred basis.

How can I enroll in PBF Energy's 401(k) Savings Plan?

Employees can enroll in PBF Energy's 401(k) Savings Plan by completing the enrollment process through the company’s designated benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does PBF Energy offer matching contributions to the 401(k) Savings Plan?

Yes, PBF Energy offers matching contributions to the 401(k) Savings Plan, which helps employees increase their retirement savings.

What types of investment options are available in PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan?

PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

When can I start contributing to PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan?

Employees can start contributing to PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan after they have completed their eligibility requirements, typically within the first few months of employment.

What is the maximum contribution limit for PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan?

The maximum contribution limit for PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan is determined by the IRS limits, which may change annually. Employees should refer to the plan documents for the current limits.

Can I take a loan against my 401(k) savings at PBF Energy?

Yes, PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan allows employees to take loans against their savings under certain conditions. Employees should review the plan documents for specific terms and conditions.

What happens to my 401(k) savings if I leave PBF Energy?

If you leave PBF Energy, you have several options for your 401(k) savings, including rolling it over to another retirement account, cashing it out, or leaving it in the PBF Energy plan if permitted.

Is there a vesting schedule for PBF Energy's matching contributions?

Yes, PBF Energy has a vesting schedule for matching contributions, which means that employees earn ownership of the matching funds over time based on their years of service.

How often can I change my contribution amount to PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan?

Employees can change their contribution amount to PBF Energy’s 401(k) Savings Plan at designated times throughout the year, as outlined in the plan documents.