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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Penske Automotive Group Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Penske Automotive Group Penske Automotive Group employees typically receive healthcare coverage through a variety of providers depending on their specific plan selections, with major national insurers like Kaiser Permanente, UnitedHealthcare, and Anthem BlueCross BlueShield being among the options available. The exact provider often varies by location and the specific plan chosen during open enrollment. Healthcare Cost Projections for 2026 The healthcare landscape is set for significant upheaval in 2026, with potential premium hikes expected to exceed 75% for many Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace enrollees, largely due to the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies. Penske Automotive Group employees, particularly those nearing retirement, may face steep increases in their healthcare costs as insurers respond to rising medical expenses and price inflation. With the ACA marketplace seeing some state requests for premium increases reaching as high as 66%, careful financial planning will be essential for employees heading into another challenging year in healthcare affordability. Click here to learn more

'Penske Automotive Group employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Penske Automotive Group employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the specific eligibility criteria for participation in the Penske Cash Balance Plan, and how can employees of Penske ensure they meet these requirements as they work towards retirement? Furthermore, how does the plan address the transition from being a participant to receiving benefits once the eligibility criteria are met?

Eligibility Criteria: Employees of Penske automatically become participants in the Penske Cash Balance Plan after completing a year in which they work 1,000 or more hours, as long as they are in an eligible group. To ensure they meet the eligibility requirements, employees should confirm they meet these conditions annually and consult the Summary Plan Description for details(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

In what ways does the Penske Cash Balance Plan differentiate itself from traditional defined contribution plans, and how can employees of Penske navigate the choices available to them, including lump sum distributions and annuities? Additionally, what implications do these options have for long-term financial planning for retirement?

Plan Differences: The Penske Cash Balance Plan is a defined benefit plan, offering benefits similar to a defined contribution plan but providing additional options like lump-sum distributions and annuities. Employees should carefully evaluate these options, as lump sums provide immediate access to funds, while annuities ensure steady long-term payments. Both choices impact long-term financial stability(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

How does the concept of vesting apply to the Penske Cash Balance Plan, and what are the steps that employees of Penske should take to ensure they understand their rights to these benefits prior to retirement? Furthermore, what resources are available to help employees fully grasp the nuances of vesting in relation to their individual situations?

Vesting: Vesting refers to an employee's right to receive benefits even if they leave Penske before retirement. Employees must meet specific requirements to become vested, and they can consult the Brief Plan Summary to fully understand their rights(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

What mechanisms does the Penske Cash Balance Plan have in place to ensure that employees can trust they will receive their benefits? How does this assurance interact with projected benefits and calculations provided through DB Online, and what should employees of Penske do if they have concerns about the accuracy of their benefit estimates?

Benefit Assurance: Benefits from the Penske Cash Balance Plan are paid from a trust fund established by the company and insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Employees can rely on the trust fund and the PBGC for benefit security, and should contact the Customer Contact Center if they have concerns about benefit estimates(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

How are pension benefits from the Penske Cash Balance Plan typically taxed, and what strategies can employees of Penske implement to manage tax implications effectively during their retirement planning? Moreover, what are the possible ways to minimize taxes on lump sum distributions compared to annuity payments?

Taxation: Benefits from the Penske Cash Balance Plan are generally taxed as ordinary income. Employees can manage taxes effectively by rolling over lump-sum distributions to an IRA to defer tax payments. Careful consideration of lump sums versus annuities can minimize taxes over time(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

What are the various forms of payment options available under the Penske Cash Balance Plan, and how should employees of Penske evaluate their choices regarding life annuities versus lump sum payments? Additionally, how do these payment options affect short-term and long-term financial stability in retirement?

Payment Options: Employees can choose between lump-sum payments and various types of annuities. Evaluating these options is essential for balancing short-term and long-term financial goals, as lump sums offer immediate liquidity, while annuities provide lifetime payments(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

In the event of a divorce or separation, what specific procedures must employees of Penske follow to protect their pension benefits, and how does a Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO) impact these benefits? What guidance does the Penske Cash Balance Plan provide to ensure that the division of assets is conducted appropriately?

Divorce and QDRO: In the event of a divorce, employees must obtain a Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO) to divide their pension benefits. This court order ensures that the division is legally recognized, and employees should refer to plan procedures for guidance(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

How can employees of Penske prepare for the multitude of decisions they need to make as they approach retirement, and what resources does the company offer to assist in this decision-making process? Additionally, how do the various teams and services provided by Penske streamline the retirement transition for its employees?

Retirement Preparation: Penske offers specialized retirement counseling and customer support services to help employees navigate retirement decisions. These resources can assist employees in making informed choices and smooth their transition into retirement(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

What are the major types of annuities offered by the Penske Cash Balance Plan, and how should employees of Penske assess the suitability of these annuity options for their personal retirement needs? What does the company recommend in terms of beneficiaries and their implications for future payments from the plan?

Annuity Options: Penske offers various annuities, including life annuities and joint survivor annuities. Employees should assess these based on their personal needs and consult the company for recommendations regarding beneficiaries to ensure future payments are secure(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).

How can employees of Penske contact the company to inquire further about the Penske Cash Balance Plan and its intricacies? What methods of communication are available, and what information should employees gather beforehand to make their inquiries as productive as possible?

Contact Information: Employees can contact the Penske Cash Balance Plan administrators by calling 1-800-755-5801 for further inquiries. It's advisable to have all relevant documents and questions prepared in advance to make the discussion more productive(Penske Cash Balance Pla…).