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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Philip Morris International Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Philip Morris International Philip Morris International (PMI) primarily collaborates with global health insurance providers rather than being tied to a specific healthcare provider. The focus of PMI's health-related initiatives is primarily in supporting public health efforts linked to tobacco control and transitioning towards smoke-free products, reflecting its corporate commitment to sustainability and consumer health. Anticipated Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As the healthcare landscape evolves, significant increases in healthcare costs are anticipated for 2026. Record hikes in ACA premiums are projected, with some states reporting increases exceeding 60%. Contributing factors include rising medical costs, the potential expiration of federal premium subsidies, and aggressive pricing strategies from major insurers. Without congressional action to renew enhanced tax credits, many consumers may face out-of-pocket premium increases exceeding 75%, exacerbating the financial strain for millions of Americans. These factors collectively signal a challenging healthcare environment ahead. Click here to learn more

'Philip Morris International employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Philip Morris International employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the investment strategy outlined by the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan aim to ensure that sufficient assets are available to pay membersâ€™ benefits as they fall due? What specific return objectives has the Trustee established that reflect the financial goals of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan?

Investment Strategy and Return Objectives: The primary objective of the Trustee's investment strategy is to ensure sufficient assets are available to pay members’ benefits as they fall due. The return objective set by the Trustee is to achieve a return above that achievable on index-linked gilts. The Trustee is mindful that growth can come from both investment performance and company contributions(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

In what ways does the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan address the risks associated with inadequate long-term returns, and how has the Trustee structured the investment portfolio to mitigate potential stock market underperformance relative to inflation?

Addressing Risks and Portfolio Structure: The Philip Morris Group Pension Plan mitigates risks associated with inadequate long-term returns by investing around 20% of its portfolio in equities expected to outperform gilts. Approximately 50% of the portfolio is in index-linked gilts to provide protection from inflation(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

What considerations does the Trustee of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan have for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in their investment strategy, and how do these considerations impact the overall financial performance of the Plan?

ESG Considerations: The Trustee acknowledges that environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors are sources of risk, potentially impacting financial performance. Although the Plan's primary investment manager tracks market indexes without specific ESG constraints, the Trustee expects them to account for financially material considerations when engaging with investee companies(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

How does the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan incorporate diversification within its investment strategy to protect against extreme stock market fluctuations, and what specific controls have been implemented by the Trustee to maintain an appropriate balance among asset classes?

Diversification Strategy and Controls: The Trustee implements diversification to protect against stock market fluctuations by investing in a variety of global asset classes and bonds. A mix of UK and overseas equities, along with government bonds, ensures appropriate balance and protection from extreme market volatility(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

What procedures are in place for the Trustee of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan to review and potentially revise the investment strategy based on performance assessments, market conditions, and changes in the economic environment?

Review and Revision of Strategy: The Trustee reviews the investment strategy periodically, especially following significant changes in investment policy or economic conditions. These reviews involve performance assessments and market evaluations in consultation with advisers(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

How can members of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan keep informed about any significant developments in investment strategy that may affect their benefits, and what communication methods does the Trustee employ to ensure transparency?

Member Communication and Transparency: Members are informed about significant developments in the Plan’s investment strategy through direct communications from the Trustee. Members can request a copy of the Statement of Investment Principles for further details(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

What is the role of the investment manager, State Street Global Advisors, in the governance and performance of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan's assets, and how does the Trustee evaluate the success of this partnership?

Role of State Street Global Advisors: State Street Global Advisors is responsible for the day-to-day management of the Plan’s assets. The Trustee evaluates the performance of State Street Global Advisors annually and ensures that their investment approach aligns with the Plan’s objectives(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

How does the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan handle the issue of Additional Voluntary Contributions (AVCs), especially considering the decision to no longer allow active members to make these contributions since April 2006?

Additional Voluntary Contributions (AVCs): Active members have been unable to make Additional Voluntary Contributions to the Plan since April 2006. The Plan offers various options for members with existing AVCs, including investments in passive funds and with-profits funds(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

What specific risks, aside from investment risks, does the Trustee of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan need to prepare for, such as mortality or sponsor risks, and how do these factors influence the overall funding strategy of the Plan?

Other Risks (Mortality, Sponsor, etc.): The Trustee prepares for non-investment risks like mortality risk and sponsor risk, which can affect the Plan’s funding strategy. These risks are considered alongside investment risks to manage overall funding risk(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

For employees seeking more information regarding the content of the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan documents, what are the best channels to contact the company, and who specifically should they reach out to within human resources or benefits administration?

Contact for More Information: Employees seeking more information about the Philip Morris Group Pension Plan should contact the Plan administrators, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, or reach out to human resources or benefits administration for assistance(Philip_Morris_Group_Pen…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Philip Morris International provides RSUs and stock options to eligible employees.