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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Resolute Forest Products Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Resolute Forest Products offers health insurance benefits that include enhanced dental and vision coverage, life insurance, and long-term disability. Recent union agreements have increased benefit amounts and added vacation time. Employees also have access to a benefits portal for managing coverage and making changes during open enrollment 8. Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

'Resolute Forest Products employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Resolute Forest Products employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan interact with other retirement savings options that employees may have? Employees at the Pulp and Paper Industry are encouraged to understand the implications of their pension benefits when considering their overall retirement strategy. Given the complexity of retirement planning, how should one factor in the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan alongside personal savings, employer-matched contributions, and other investment accounts?

Pension Plan Interaction with Other Retirement Savings: Employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry should consider the Pension Plan as a foundational part of their overall retirement strategy. When planning for retirement, it's crucial to balance the pension benefits alongside personal savings, employer-matched contributions, and other investment accounts such as RRSPs or TFSAs. The Pension Plan, contributing a stable retirement income, can complement more flexible savings vehicles that provide additional liquidity and growth potential, especially considering tax implications and withdrawal strategies for an efficient retirement portfolio.

What are the key factors that determine the monthly pension payment upon retirement for employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry? Understanding the formula that calculates the pension benefits based on earnings, years of service, and the applicable rates is crucial for employees planning their retirement. Can you elaborate on how these elements work together to produce an individual's retirement income?

Key Factors Determining Pension Payments: The monthly pension payment for employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry is primarily calculated based on credited service, eligible earnings, and the applicable pension benefit rate. The formula integrates years of service with the employee's average earnings and the benefit accrual rate of 1.55%. This means the longer the employee's service and the higher their eligible earnings, the larger the pension payout. The calculation is also influenced by early retirement reductions or post-65 service, ensuring that employees' retirement income reflects their contribution history(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

In what circumstances can employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry expect a reduction in their pension benefits, and what specific actions can be taken to mitigate this reduction? An in-depth examination of early retirement options, the choices available at different ages, and the financial implications is vital for long-term planning. What steps should an employee take before deciding to retire early?

Circumstances Affecting Pension Reductions: Employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry may face pension reductions if they retire before the age of 65. Early retirement between 55 and 65 incurs a reduction in pension benefits, ranging from 3% to 18%, depending on the age of retirement. To mitigate this reduction, employees can consider working longer or maximizing other retirement savings before electing early retirement. It's essential to review the pension reduction tables and consult the Plan Administrator to understand the financial implications of early retirement(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How are employee contributions structured under the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan, and what is the impact of these contributions on overall retirement savings? Employees need to understand how their contributions, along with the employer's match, affect their future pension benefits. Could you detail the contribution rates and how they relate to the final pension payout?

Employee Contributions and Pension Benefits: Employees contribute 8% of their earnings to the Plan, while employers contribute 10%. These contributions directly impact the pension benefits, with higher contributions resulting in more substantial retirement payouts. Contributions stop once 2080 hours are paid within a plan year. Understanding how both employee and employer contributions accumulate is crucial for estimating future benefits and integrating them into overall retirement savings(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What is the process for employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry who experience a significant life event, such as marriage breakdown or disability, to adjust their pension plan? Employees need to be aware of the rights and options available to adjust their benefits in light of personal circumstances. What documentation is needed, and how does the process work?

Adjusting Pension Plan for Life Events: Significant life events such as marriage breakdown or disability allow employees to adjust their pension benefits. In the event of a marriage breakdown, 50% of the pension earned during the marriage may be split with the spouse, and specific forms and legal agreements are required for this process. Disability provisions may allow the employee to continue earning credited service without contributing. Employees should submit medical evidence or legal documents as necessary to the Plan Administrator to process adjustments(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How can employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry ensure that their personal information remains secure while accessing their pension benefits? Given the sensitive nature of financial information, it is crucial for employees to understand the privacy measures in place. What steps are taken to protect personal data, and what should employees do if they have concerns regarding their privacy?

Securing Personal Information: The Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan takes employee privacy seriously by using appropriate safeguards to protect personal information. Data is only shared with pension professionals for plan administration purposes. Employees can access their personal information and correct inaccuracies by contacting the Plan Administrator. If employees have concerns about data security, they should report them immediately to ensure their privacy is maintained(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What resources are available for employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry to access more detailed information about their pension benefit calculations and options? Seeking information through the right channels is essential for making informed decisions about retirement planning. Can you provide an overview of the tools and resources available to employees for understanding their benefit entitlements?

Resources for Pension Information: Employees have access to a variety of resources to help them understand their pension benefits. These include the Plan’s official web portal, personalized pension statements, and direct assistance from the Plan Administrator. For more detailed information, employees can consult their collective agreement and Plan documents, or they may contact the Administrator for personalized pension projections and guidance(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

In terms of the Pulp and Paper Industry's collective agreements with the Public and Private Workers of Canada (PPWC) or Unifor, how do those agreements affect pension benefits? Understanding these agreements is critical for employees as they directly influence the terms of the pension plan. Can you explain how these agreements shape the benefits structure and payout options?

Impact of Collective Agreements: Collective agreements between the Pulp and Paper Industry and unions like PPWC or Unifor directly influence pension plan provisions. These agreements determine contribution rates, eligibility, and benefit structures. Changes in collective agreements may lead to adjustments in pension benefits, so employees should stay informed about any updates to their collective agreement terms(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What implications does the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan have for employeesâ€™ beneficiaries, and what should employees know about designating a beneficiary? It is imperative for individuals to understand the importance of beneficiary designations. What processes should employees follow to ensure that their beneficiaries are appropriately designated and informed?

Pension Plan for Beneficiaries: Employees must ensure they appropriately designate a beneficiary for their pension benefits. In the event of death before retirement, the spouse or designated beneficiary will receive the pension benefits. If no beneficiary is designated, benefits are paid to the estate. Employees should complete and update their beneficiary designation form regularly to reflect their wishes and avoid legal complications(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How can an employee in the Pulp and Paper Industry contact the Plan Administrator for assistance regarding their pension benefits? Knowing the proper contact information and support channels is essential for employees navigating their retirement benefits. What are the best ways to reach out for help, and what types of inquiries can the Plan Administrator assist with?

Contacting the Plan Administrator: Employees can contact the Plan Administrator, LifeWorks, for assistance with their pension benefits. They can reach out by phone, email, or mail for inquiries about retirement estimates, pension adjustments, or general benefit calculations. The Administrator provides essential support for processing retirement, termination, and death benefits(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).