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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Shell PLC Employees

'Shell PLC employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Shell PLC employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the Shell Provident Fund function in conjunction with the Shell Pension Plan to assist employees of Shell Oil Company in achieving retirement readiness, and what are the specific eligibility requirements that employees must meet to participate in these plans?

Shell Provident Fund and Shell Pension Plan for Retirement Readiness: The Shell Provident Fund (SPF) and Shell Pension Plan (SPP) work in tandem to enhance employees' retirement readiness by offering company contributions and accrued benefits. Employees are immediately eligible to contribute to SPF with automatic enrollment and varying company contributions based on service length, encouraging active participation and long-term investment. The SPF allows for pre-tax, Roth, and after-tax contributions, with options for loans and withdrawals under specific conditions. The SPP provides a structured pension benefit through the Accumulated Percentage Formula or 80-Point Formula, each tailored to accommodate the retirement goals and timelines of Shell employees, reinforcing a secure financial future upon retirement.

What process should an employee of Shell Oil Company follow to designate a beneficiary for their pension plan benefits, and what are the implications of such designations on retirement planning and estate considerations?

Designating a Beneficiary for Pension Benefits: Shell employees should designate a beneficiary for their pension plan benefits to ensure proper management of their estate and retirement funds. This designation helps in planning for future financial security for their beneficiaries, providing clarity and direction for the distribution of benefits upon the employee's death. The process includes selecting primary and contingent beneficiaries, with spousal consent required if choosing someone other than the spouse as a primary beneficiary.

What communication channels are available for employees of Shell Oil Company who have questions or need clarification regarding their benefits under the Shell Provident Fund and Shell Pension Plan, and how can they best utilize these resources?

Communication Channels for Benefit Queries: Shell provides multiple communication channels for employees to inquire about their benefits under the Shell Provident Fund and Shell Pension Plan. These include dedicated benefits service centers with toll-free numbers and comprehensive online portals that offer detailed plan information, tools for managing investments, and direct contact options to address specific concerns or changes in the employee’s benefit choices.

In cases of early retirement, what are the potential penalties, benefits, and strategic considerations for employees of Shell Oil Company looking to access their pension benefits prior to reaching the normal retirement age?

Early Retirement Considerations: Employees considering early retirement from Shell Oil Company should carefully evaluate the potential penalties and benefits. Strategic considerations include understanding the financial impacts of withdrawing pension funds early, such as reduced benefits and potential tax implications. Planning involves assessing personal financial needs against the long-term benefits of delaying pension withdrawal to maximize retirement income.

How do social security benefits integrate with the Shell Pension Plan, and what factors should employees of Shell Oil Company consider when planning for their overall retirement income, including the implications of receiving dual benefits?

Integration of Social Security Benefits: The integration of social security benefits with the Shell Pension Plan is crucial for employees to consider when planning their overall retirement strategy. Understanding how these dual benefits interact can significantly affect retirement planning, offering a combined approach to maximize retirement income and ensure financial stability in later years.

How does the Shell Oil Company address the issue of preretirement death benefits under the pension plan, and what specific options are available to employees to ensure their beneficiaries are protected in the event of untimely death before retirement?

Preretirement Death Benefits: The Shell Pension Plan includes provisions for preretirement death benefits, ensuring financial protection for beneficiaries in the event of an employee’s untimely death before retirement. These options are pivotal in securing financial support for surviving dependents, providing peace of mind that benefits will be handled according to the employee's wishes and maintained in the face of unforeseen circumstances.