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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Travelers Employees

'Travelers employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Travelers employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the Travelers 401(k) Savings Plan compare to market standards, and what strategies can employees implement to maximize their retirement benefits while working at Travelers, considering the various contribution options available?

Travelers 401(k) Savings Plan Comparison to Market Standards: The Travelers 401(k) Savings Plan offers immediate eligibility upon hire, automatic enrollment, and flexible contribution options between 1% and 75% of pay, with a mix of pre-tax and Roth options. Employees benefit from a generous dollar-for-dollar employer match on the first 5% of eligible pay, up to $6,000 annually. To maximize retirement benefits, employees should consider contributing at least enough to receive the full employer match and periodically review their investment choices with the aid of Financial Engines, an independent advisory firm provided by Travelers.

In what ways does the Travelers Pension Plan provide a safety net for employees as they transition into retirement, and how does participation in this defined benefit plan impact financial planning for retirement among long-term employees?

Impact of the Travelers Pension Plan: The defined benefit Pension Plan at Travelers, funded entirely by the company, provides a secure foundation for retirement with benefits based on age, salary, and years of service. This plan is crucial for long-term financial planning as it guarantees a predictable income stream in retirement, supplementing savings and Social Security benefits. Employees are eligible after one year of service, which encourages long-term commitment and aids in retirement readiness.

What resources does Travelers offer to assist employees in making effective investment decisions within their 401(k) plans, and how can employees leverage these resources to reach their personal retirement goals?

Investment Decision Resources in Travelers 401(k) Plans: Travelers offers resources such as Financial Engines to assist employees in making informed investment decisions within their 401(k) plans. This service helps employees tailor their investment strategies to their individual retirement goals and risk tolerance. Engaging with these resources can significantly enhance employees' ability to grow their retirement savings effectively.

How can employees best understand the interplay between their personal savings and the benefits provided by Travelers, particularly in relation to healthcare and retirement planning as they age?

Interplay Between Personal Savings and Travelers Benefits: Understanding the interplay between personal savings and company-provided benefits is vital for comprehensive retirement planning. Travelers employees should consider how their benefits package, including health care, life insurance, and disability coverage, complements their savings and Social Security. Regular consultations with financial advisors provided through the company can help employees strategize effectively as they age.

What should employees at Travelers know about the eligibility requirements and benefits associated with the company's Long-Term and Short-Term Disability policies as they prepare for a secure retirement?

Understanding Disability Policies at Travelers: Travelers provides both short-term and long-term disability coverage, which is crucial for protecting income in the event of an unforeseen health issue. Short-term disability covers up to 13 weeks at varying pay levels, while long-term disability kicks in for more severe cases, offering up to 60% of base salary. Employees should familiarize themselves with these policies early to ensure comprehensive coverage as they approach retirement.

How does the company's Paid Time Off (PTO) policy under Travelers facilitate work-life balance, and what implications does this have for employees' long-term health and preparedness for retirement?

Benefits of Travelers PTO Policy: The Paid Time Off (PTO) policy at Travelers allows employees to accrue significant time off based on service length, enhancing work-life balance and contributing to long-term health and well-being. This policy supports employees in maintaining a healthy work-life balance, which is crucial for long-term career sustainability and retirement preparedness.

What strategies can employees implement to effectively utilize the Educational Assistance Program offered by Travelers not only for their personal development but also as a way to enhance their retirement planning prospects?

Utilizing the Educational Assistance Program: Travelers' Educational Assistance Program supports employees in pursuing further education relevant to their professional growth and retirement planning. By investing in additional qualifications and skills, employees can not only enhance their career prospects at Travelers but also increase their earning potential for better retirement savings.

How does the Business Travel Accident Plan improve the overall financial protection for employees at Travelers, and what are the claims procedures if an incident occurs while conducting company business?

Financial Protection through the Business Travel Accident Plan: The Business Travel Accident Plan provides a safety net by offering coverage of up to three times the annual base salary, up to $2 million. This plan is crucial for financial protection against unexpected incidents during business travel, and employees should understand the claims procedures to utilize this benefit effectively.

In terms of post-retirement benefits, how does Travelers support its retirees concerning access to resources like financial planning services or health benefits?

Post-Retirement Benefits at Travelers: Travelers supports retirees by offering access to financial planning services and health benefits. These resources are vital for maintaining financial stability and health during retirement. Retirees should actively engage with these services to optimize their retirement lifestyle and financial management.

For employees looking for further information or assistance regarding their retirement plans and benefits at Travelers, what are the best ways to contact the company to ensure they receive accurate and timely information?

Accessing Retirement Plan Information at Travelers: Employees seeking information or assistance regarding their retirement plans can contact Travelers' Employee Services Unit via email at 4-ESU@travelers.com or by calling 800.441.4378. Utilizing these channels ensures employees receive accurate and up-to-date information about their retirement benefits.