New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Union Pacific Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Union Pacific Union Pacific provides healthcare coverage primarily through its management benefits program, which may include options such as insurance plans, Medicare, and Medicaid for retirees. The specific providers associated with Union Pacific's healthcare offerings can vary and are typically outlined in their employee and retiree benefit guides. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As 2026 approaches, healthcare costs are expected to rise significantly, particularly for those enrolled in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Record premium hikes are anticipated, with over 22 million enrollees facing potential increases exceeding 75%-a consequence of expiring federal subsidies and aggressive rate hikes by major insurers. With employers also planning to shift more healthcare costs to employees through higher deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums, individuals may find themselves grappling with substantial financial burdens in their healthcare expenses next year. Click here to learn more

'Union Pacific employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Union Pacific employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the specific eligibility requirements for employees of Union Pacific Corporation to participate in the pension plan, and how might these requirements evolve as IRS regulations change? Understanding how Union Pacific Corporation aligns its eligibility criteria with broader IRS regulations can help employees assess their own eligibility for the pension plan, particularly in light of any new IRS guidelines issued for 2024.

Eligibility Requirements for Pension Plan Participation: Eligibility to participate in the Union Pacific Corporation pension plan is governed by specific criteria set forth in the plan documents. As of January 1, 2018, the plan was closed to new participants, meaning individuals hired on or after this date are not eligible. For existing employees, eligibility to accrue benefits continued provided they were active participants as of December 31, 2017, and remained in covered employment. Changes in IRS regulations could potentially alter these eligibility criteria by requiring adjustments to maintain compliance with legal standards, potentially affecting who can accrue benefits in the future.

How does Union Pacific Corporation calculate an employee's final average compensation for pension benefits? Given the potential for changes in compensation structures, it is essential for employees at Union Pacific Corporation to comprehend how their average compensation is determined and how this figure might impact their retirement planning.

Calculation of Final Average Compensation: The pension plan calculates an employee's final average compensation based on the average monthly compensation over the 36-consecutive month period out of the last 120 months of active participation that yields the highest average. This includes base pay, overtime, and certain incentive and bonus payments. Understanding this calculation is crucial for employees to appreciate how raises, bonuses, and other compensation changes might impact their pension benefits.

What forms of payment options are available to employees of Union Pacific Corporation when they choose to retire, and how do these options influence the total benefit received? Employees need detailed information on the different payment structures to make informed decisions that suit their financial needs in retirement.

Payment Options Available at Retirement: Union Pacific offers various payment options for pension benefits upon retirement. Employees can choose a lifetime annuity or opt for joint and survivor annuities, providing continued benefits to a designated beneficiary. Other options include certain annuities that guarantee payments for a set period, regardless of the employee's lifespan. These choices allow employees to tailor retirement benefits to their financial needs and family circumstances.

In what ways does Union Pacific Corporation integrate Social Security and Railroad Retirement benefits into the pension plan, and how does this integration affect the overall retirement income for employees? Employees should explore the implications of these benefits on their pensions to develop a comprehensive retirement income strategy.

Integration of Social Security and Railroad Retirement Benefits: The pension benefits are coordinated with Social Security or Railroad Retirement benefits through an offset formula in the pension plan. This integration reduces the pension benefit by a portion of the government retirement benefits projected at the time of retirement, reflecting that some of the funding for these benefits comes from Union Pacific. Employees need to understand how this interaction affects their total retirement income to plan effectively.

What strategies can employees of Union Pacific Corporation employ to maximize their pension benefits prior to retirement while adhering to IRS limits? Employees must be informed of practical steps they can take to enhance their benefits within the framework established by IRS guidelines.

Maximizing Pension Benefits: To maximize pension benefits under the IRS limits, Union Pacific employees can ensure they maximize their earnings during the final average compensation period, continue employment as long as possible to increase credited service, and make strategic decisions about retirement age and benefit commencement. Understanding the interplay of these factors with IRS contribution and benefit limits is essential for optimizing pension payouts.

How does the vesting schedule work within Union Pacific Corporation's pension plan, and what implications does this have for employees who leave the company before full vesting? An understanding of the vesting schedule is crucial for employees at Union Pacific Corporation to grasp the long-term benefits they might forfeit by leaving before they are fully vested.

Vesting Schedule: The vesting schedule is crucial as it determines an employee's entitlement to pension benefits upon leaving the company before retirement age. Union Pacific's plan requires employees to complete five years of vesting service to qualify for a vested benefit, which is payable as early as age 55. Employees considering leaving Union Pacific should be aware of how their vesting status might affect their pension entitlements.

What responsibilities do employees have to keep Union Pacific Corporation informed about their earnings records, particularly when claims for benefits arise, and what might happen if these records are not accurately reported? Employees should be aware of their duties to maintain their benefits and the potential consequences of noncompliance within the pension plan.

Responsibilities for Reporting Earnings: Employees are responsible for ensuring that Union Pacific has accurate records of their earnings to calculate pension benefits accurately. Failure to report or correct discrepancies in earnings records can lead to miscalculations in pension benefits, affecting retirement income. It's vital for employees to regularly review their earnings records and report any inaccuracies.

How does Union Pacific Corporation ensure compliance with ERISA regulations as they relate to employee retirement benefits, and what rights do employees have under these regulations? Employees of Union Pacific Corporation should familiarize themselves with their rights under ERISA to ensure they are adequately protected when claiming pension benefits.

Compliance with ERISA Regulations: Union Pacific ensures compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) regulations, which protect employees' rights to their pension benefits. Employees have specific rights under these regulations, including the right to receive information about their pension plan, appeal denials of benefits, and sue for benefits or breaches of fiduciary duty. Awareness of these rights is important for employees to safeguard their benefits.

What happens to the pension benefits of employees of Union Pacific Corporation in the event of a company merger or acquisition, and how can employees prepare for these changes? Understanding the potential impacts of organizational changes on their pension benefits can enable employees to safeguard their retirement plans.

Impact of Company Mergers or Acquisitions: In the event of a merger or acquisition, employees' pension benefits could be affected. Union Pacific's pension plan provisions include terms for handling benefits under such circumstances. Employees should be proactive in understanding how these corporate changes might impact their pension benefits and seek clarity on their rights and options.

How can employees of Union Pacific Corporation contact the Benefits Group to inquire further about the pension plan and related questions? Clear guidance on contacting the Benefits Group will assist employees in accessing the information necessary to navigate their retirement options effectively.

Contacting the Benefits Group: Employees with questions or who need assistance regarding their pension plan can contact Union Pacific's Benefits Group. Having the contact information handy ensures that employees can promptly address concerns or seek guidance about their retirement benefits, aiding in effective retirement planning.