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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for U.S. Bancorp Employees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for U.S. Bancorp U.S. Bancorp, the parent company of U.S. Bank, primarily partners with UnitedHealthcare for its corporate health insurance offerings. This relationship allows U.S. Bancorp to provide a range of health benefits to its employees through UnitedHealthcare's extensive network and services. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, U.S. Bancorp may face substantial healthcare cost increases, influenced predominantly by rising insurance premiums driven by multiple factors. Record hikes in premiums are anticipated as federal subsidies from the Affordable Care Act expire, which could result in over 22 million enrollees experiencing steep out-of-pocket expenses. With major insurers like UnitedHealthcare requesting rate increases upward of 66% in certain markets, U.S. Bancorp's healthcare costs could rise significantly, compelling both the company and its employees to navigate a more expensive healthcare landscape. This situation highlights the urgent need for strategic planning to mitigate the financial impact on employees and the company's overall benefits strategy. Click here to learn more

'U.S. Bancorp employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'U.S. Bancorp employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

How does the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan calculate the Final Average Total Pay and Final Average Base Pay for employees, and what implications might these calculations have for retirement planning? What factors should employees at U.S. Bank consider when planning for their eventual retirement based on their pay history?

The U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan calculates Final Average Total Pay by taking the average of an employee's Total Pension Pay for the five consecutive calendar years during the last ten years of employment that provide the highest average. Similarly, Final Average Base Pay is calculated by averaging the Base Pension Pay for the same five-year period. Total Pension Pay includes base pay plus commissions, bonuses, and overtime, while Base Pension Pay only includes base salary and a few other components such as shift differentials and premium pay. These calculations significantly affect retirement planning, as higher pay during the last years of employment can lead to a more substantial pension benefit(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What steps does U.S. Bank require for employees who wish to commence their pension benefits, and how does the timing of this commencement affect the benefits they will ultimately receive? Employees at U.S. Bank should understand the critical timelines associated with the retirement process, including the importance of initiating their requests within specific timeframes.

Employees who wish to commence their pension benefits must initiate the process at least 30 to 90 days before their intended benefit commencement date. The timing affects the benefits, as early retirement (before age 65) results in reduced monthly benefits due to the extended period over which benefits are paid. Conversely, delaying the commencement of benefits until the full retirement age (65) or later ensures the maximum monthly pension benefit(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What are the different forms of payment options available under the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and how might these options change based on the employeeâ€™s age and years of service? U.S. Bank employees need clarity on how to choose the best payment option to meet their individual needs in retirement.

The Plan offers several payment options, including a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities (50%, 75%, or 100%), and estate protection annuities. These options can vary based on the employee's age and years of service. For example, younger employees may have a reduced monthly benefit if they choose early retirement, while older employees nearing or beyond age 65 will receive full benefits without reduction. The employee's choice of annuity type also affects the monthly payout and survivor benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How does U.S. Bank ensure the security of employees' pension plan information and personal benefits data, and what measures should employees take to protect their information? Employees should be informed about the companyâ€™s security protocols and best practices for safeguarding sensitive information related to their pension.

U.S. Bank implements several security measures, including encouraging employees to use strong, unique passwords for accessing benefit information and enabling multifactor authentication. Employees should also regularly monitor their account for unauthorized transactions, update contact information to receive notices, and use secure networks when accessing their pension plan data(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

In the event that an employee at U.S. Bank undergoes reemployment after retirement, how does this impact their pension benefits and what should they be aware of regarding benefit accrual? Employees need guidance on how transitioning back to work could affect their pension plans and retirement strategies.

If a retired U.S. Bank employee is rehired, their pension payments continue as usual. However, they will not accrue any additional benefits under the Legacy Pension Plan but may be eligible for participation in the Legacy 2010 Cash Balance Portion of the Plan. It is essential for rehired employees to understand the implications on their pension accrual and benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What are the eligibility requirements for participation in the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and how do changes in employment status affect an employee's pension benefits? U.S. Bank staff should have a comprehensive understanding of eligibility criteria and how various employment changes can impact their pension rights.

Eligibility is limited to employees who had earned a benefit before January 1, 2020, or those rehired in an eligible position. Employment status changes, such as termination or reemployment, can affect whether an employee remains in the Plan. For example, employees rehired after January 1, 2020, may not accrue additional benefits under the Legacy Pension Plan(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What specific rights do U.S. Bank employees have under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in relation to their pension plan benefits, and how can they enforce these rights? U.S. Bank employees must be made aware of their legal rights to access plan information and contest any disputes regarding their benefits.

Employees have rights under ERISA to access plan information, file claims, and appeal denied claims. U.S. Bank employees can enforce these rights by submitting claims or appealing denials through the Plan's claims and appeals procedures. Additionally, employees may bring legal action if they exhaust the Plan's internal processes(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How does U.S. Bancorp ensure that its pension plan complies with current IRS limits, and what should employees know about potential tax implications on their pension benefits? Clear communication from U.S. Bank regarding tax consequences and IRS guidelines for retirement benefits is crucial for employees to manage their finances effectively post-retirement.

The Plan adheres to IRS regulations, including limits on annual earnings ($330,000 in 2023) that can be considered for pension benefit calculations. Employees should understand the potential tax implications on their pension distributions and are encouraged to consult tax advisors to ensure proper tax handling(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What processes are in place for U.S. Bank employees to file claims or appeals if they believe they are entitled to additional benefits under the pension plan? Employees at U.S. Bank should be informed about the claims process and know their options for seeking justice if their claims are disputed.

Employees can file claims or appeals by contacting U.S. Bank Employee Services or accessing the Plan’s claims procedures. Deadlines apply, and employees must submit claims within the specified time limits to avoid losing their rights to additional benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How can U.S. Bank employees contact the company for further assistance regarding the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and what resources are available to them through the Employee Services division? Itâ€™s essential that U.S. Bank staff knows how to reach out for support regarding their retirement benefits and understands the services provided to help them navigate their pension plans.

Employees can contact U.S. Bank Employee Services by calling 800-806-7009 and selecting "Savings and retirement." Additionally, the Your Total Rewards website provides 24/7 access to pension information and support. Employees are encouraged to use these resources for assistance with their pension plan(US Bancorp_January 2023…).