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Navigating Sequence Risk in Retirement: Lessons and Strategies for Valero Energy Employees

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'Valero Energy employees approaching retirement should recognize that the sequence of market returns in their early years can influence the longevity of their income far more than the average return itself, making disciplined withdrawal strategies and diversified income planning essential.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Valero Energy employees nearing retirement can benefit from understanding how market downturns early in retirement may have lasting effects, and from adopting flexible, research-based withdrawal and allocation strategies to help sustain their income over time.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

Historical examples of sequence-of-returns risk and their effects on retirement income.
Why the first years of retirement are most critical for portfolio sustainability.
Research‑backed strategies for managing sequence risk and supporting long‑term retirement goals.

Contributed by Paul Bergeron and Brent Wolf of Wealth Enhancement

For Fortune 500 employees approaching retirement, recognizing the timing of returns—not just the average return—can be critical to keeping income going over the long term. This concept, known as sequence-of‑returns risk, shows how poor early market performance in retirement can have a lasting impact on a withdrawal plan, even if long-term averages seem strong. Historical market data provides clear examples of this risk and offers practical methods for responding to it.

Historical examples of sequence risk

Fortune 500 retirees entering retirement during tough market cycles face situations similar to the declines seen in the late 1960s, when the market hit two bear markets (1968–70 and 1973–74) alongside high inflation. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 48% during the 1973–74 bear market, compounding inflation-related difficulties. ¹ Likewise, those retiring in 2000 endured two severe bear markets in the decade, while 2022 proved one of the toughest years for balanced portfolios, with sharp drops in both U.S. stocks and high-quality bonds.

Why the early years matter most

For a Fortune 500 retiree, significant losses in the first five to ten years of retirement—combined with regular withdrawals—can shrink the number of shares left to rebound when markets recover. Academic studies and industry research repeatedly show that even with the same average return, the order of gains and losses plays a huge role in retirement outcomes.

Research-backed strategies to manage sequence risk

One effective method for Fortune 500 retirees is keeping a mix of asset types to help weather downturns. Cash and bonds can act as “shock absorbers” for immediate expenses, reducing the need to sell stocks during market dips. Flexible withdrawal approaches—such as adjusting withdrawals within set guardrails—have been shown to support portfolio longevity better than fixed-dollar withdrawal methods.

Staging risk in a retirement portfolio—by holding one to two years of expenses in cash-like assets and several years in short‑ to intermediate‑term bonds—may give equities time to recover before they're tapped for income. For some Fortune 500 retirees, delaying income sources like Social Security can help raise total lifetime income and lessen the need to tap investments during volatile times. Thoughtful rebalancing and managing tax lots, especially during downturns, can also help maintain equity exposure and extend portfolio lifespan.

Implications for retirement planning

While higher stock allocations may offer greater long-term growth potential, they also increase sequence risk in early retirement for Fortune 500 workers. Historically, balanced portfolios—often with 30% to 50% equities for income-focused funds—have supported more resilient initial withdrawal rates compared to all-stock strategies. ² Strong early-market results can set up long-term success, but disciplined spending limits, guardrails, and rebalancing remain key.

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Sources:

1.The New York Times. ' What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears ,' by William Davis, Karl Russell, and Stephen Gandel. 13 June 2022.

2. Vanguard UK. ' Sustainable Spending Rates in Turbulent Markets ,' by Daga, Ankul, et al. Mar. 2021, pp. 1–7.

Other Resources:

1. Guyton, Jonathan T., and William J. Klinger. “ Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates .” Journal of Financial Planning , vol. 19, no. 3, Mar. 2006, pp. 48–50, 52–54, 56–58. Financial Planning Association.

2. “ Timeline of U.S. Stock Market Crashes .” Investopedia , 30 Oct. 2024, section “The 1973–74 Oil Crisis Bear Market.”

3. ' When to Start Receiving Retirement Benefits. ' Social Security Administration, Pub. No. 05-10147, May 2024, pp. 1–2.

4. Arnott, Amy C., CFA, and Ivanna Hampton. “ Why More Diversification Doesn’t Mean Better Returns .” Morningstar , 7 June 2024.

What are the modifications to retirement plan contributions for employees of Valero Energy Corporation in 2024, and how do these changes impact both traditional 401(k) contributions and Roth contributions? Could you also elaborate on the distinctions between the two types of contributions offered by Valero Energy Corporation and the potential tax implications for employees?

Modifications to Retirement Plan Contributions: In 2024, Valero Energy Corporation has adjusted its retirement plan contributions to align with evolving regulatory and economic environments. The company offers both traditional 401(k) contributions and Roth contributions. The traditional 401(k) contributions are made pre-tax, reducing the taxable income for employees, which is beneficial during their high-earning years. Roth contributions are made after-tax, offering tax-free growth and withdrawals, which can be advantageous if employees expect to be in a higher tax bracket in retirement. The choice between these options allows employees to tailor their retirement savings in a way that best suits their long-term financial planning.

How can employees of Valero Energy Corporation maximize their retirement benefits through the company's defined benefit or defined contribution plans? Specifically, what strategies or options can employees consider to ensure they are adequately preparing for retirement, including the effects of employer matching contributions and vesting schedules offered by Valero Energy Corporation?

Maximizing Retirement Benefits: Employees of Valero can maximize their retirement benefits by taking full advantage of the company’s matching contributions in the defined contribution plans, which is an immediate return on their investment. Understanding the vesting schedules is also crucial, as it determines the ownership of employer-contributed funds. Employees should consider contributing at least enough to receive the full match, as it represents part of their compensation package. Regularly reviewing and adjusting their investment portfolio within the plan can help in aligning with personal retirement goals and risk tolerance.

What are the eligibility criteria for employees of Valero Energy Corporation to participate in the company's pension plans, and how are accrued benefits calculated over time? Additionally, how do these factors contribute to an employee's overall retirement readiness when planning for post-employment life?

Eligibility and Accrual of Benefits: To participate in Valero's pension plans, employees typically need to meet specific eligibility criteria, which might include a minimum period of service or age requirements. The benefits accrued depend on factors like years of service and salary history. These plans are designed to provide a stable income stream in retirement, contributing to an employee’s overall retirement readiness. Understanding these aspects of the pension plan can help employees plan more effectively for their retirement.

In the event of a job change or leaving Valero Energy Corporation, what options do employees have for managing their retirement accounts? Could you discuss in detail the pros and cons of rolling over a 401(k) into an individual retirement account (IRA) versus cashing it out?

Options Upon Job Change or Leaving Valero: If an employee decides to change jobs or leave Valero, they have several options for managing their retirement accounts. Rolling over a 401(k) into an individual retirement account (IRA) can provide more investment options and potentially lower fees, while preserving the tax-deferred status. Cashing out the 401(k), although immediately accessible, can lead to substantial penalties and taxes, reducing the retirement savings. Each option has pros and cons, depending on the individual's circumstances and retirement strategies.

How does Valero Energy Corporation ensure compliance with federal and state regulations regarding its retirement plans? What specific measures are taken to protect employee retirement savings, and how does the company communicate these protections to its workforce?

Compliance with Regulations: Valero ensures compliance with federal and state regulations regarding retirement plans through regular audits, adherence to plan documents, and by providing transparent communication to employees. The company takes measures to protect the retirement savings of its workforce, which helps in maintaining trust and reliability in its retirement plan offerings.

What resources are available to Valero Energy Corporation employees for financial planning as they approach retirement age? Please provide details on any company-sponsored educational programs, one-on-one financial counseling, or third-party resources that can assist employees in making informed decisions.

Resources for Financial Planning: Valero provides various resources to assist employees in planning for retirement, including access to financial planners, workshops, and online tools that offer personalized guidance. These resources help employees make informed decisions about their retirement savings and overall financial health as they approach retirement age.

What are the potential tax benefits available to Valero Energy Corporation employees when contributing to their retirement plans? Could you elaborate on the current tax implications for contributions made in 2024 and any changes to tax credits or deductions that may impact employees' decision-making regarding their retirement savings?

Tax Benefits for Contributions: Employees contributing to Valero's retirement plans in 2024 can benefit from immediate tax deductions on traditional 401(k) contributions or tax-free growth on Roth contributions. The specific tax implications can influence employees' contributions depending on their current tax situation and future expectations.

How does Valero Energy Corporation's retirement plan compare to those offered by other companies in the energy sector? Can employees access benchmarking data to assess whether their retirement benefits meet industry standards? What elements can employees evaluate when considering the adequacy of their retirement provisions at Valero Energy Corporation?

Comparison with Industry Standards: Valero strives to offer competitive retirement benefits compared to others in the energy sector. Employees might have access to benchmarking data through human resources, which can help them evaluate the adequacy of their retirement benefits relative to industry standards.

What are the processes involved for Valero Energy Corporation employees to initiate a withdrawal or distribution from their retirement accounts upon retirement? Are there particular forms or timelines that must be adhered to, and how does the company provide support during this transition?

Withdrawal or Distribution Processes: Upon retirement, Valero employees can initiate withdrawals or distributions from their retirement accounts by following specific procedures, which include completing certain forms and adhering to outlined timelines. The company provides support during this transition, ensuring that employees understand their options and the implications of their choices.

How can Valero Energy Corporation employees contact the human resources department to inquire about their retirement benefits and plans? Please detail the best avenuesâ€”whether through phone, in-person visits, or online portalsâ€”available to employees for addressing their retirement-related questions and concerns.

Contacting HR for Retirement Plan Inquiries: Employees can contact Valero's human resources department through various channels such as phone, in-person visits, or online portals to inquire about their retirement plans. This accessibility helps in resolving any questions or concerns regarding retirement benefits and planning.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Valero Energy is a leading independent petroleum refiner and marketer, providing energy products globally with a focus on operational excellence.

Valero Energy offers stock options to eligible employees. The stock options vest over time, providing long-term incentives.