Everything Evercore Professionals Need to Know About Current Interest Rates and Housing Prices

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In the current housing market, there are several key factors influencing the dynamics of buying and selling homes. Understanding these elements is crucial for Evercore professionals, especially for those contemplating the timing of their home sales. Here's an analysis of the current situation:

Millennial Homebuying Trends : Millennials, the largest generational group in U.S. history, are now entering their prime homebuying years. They currently account for approximately 60% of home purchases involving mortgages. This demographic's sustained interest in homeownership is projected to either maintain or elevate housing prices throughout the decade. This trend offers a potentially stable market environment for future home sales.

Housing Supply Shortage : The market is experiencing a significant housing shortage, estimated at around 2.1 million units. This shortage stems from a decrease in home construction following the 2008 financial crisis. Consequently, the limited supply has been a primary driver in keeping housing prices elevated. Given the millennials' growing demand, it's plausible that home prices may continue to stay high, which could benefit those considering selling their homes in the future.

Rising Mortgage Rates : The recent surge in mortgage rates has made home affordability a challenge, yet this increase has not substantially lessened the demand for homes. For millennials, most of whom are first-time borrowers, these higher rates imply increased costs, potentially delaying their entry into homeownership.

The Lock-in Effect : Many existing homeowners, particularly from the baby boomer generation, are hesitant to sell their homes. This reluctance is partly due to the favorable low mortgage rates they previously secured. Selling now would mean relinquishing these low rates and facing the higher costs associated with new mortgages. This phenomenon, known as the lock-in effect, is a contributing factor to the current low housing supply.

Generational Mortgage Rate Disparity : There's a notable difference in how baby boomers and millennials are affected by the current mortgage rate situation. Baby boomers have historically benefited from lower rates and hold significant wealth, making them less sensitive to recent rate increases. Millennials, on the other hand, are just starting to navigate the market and are more impacted by these higher rates.

Future Market Outlook : The housing market is likely to evolve as the effects of the lock-in phenomenon diminish and mortgage rates stabilize. Such changes could create more favorable conditions for selling, particularly as millennials become more financially established and the market's supply and demand dynamics shift.

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A recent study from the National Association of Realtors, published in March 2023, reveals an emerging trend particularly pertinent for homeowners around age 60. The study found that homeowners in this age group are increasingly leveraging their equity gains from prolonged homeownership to purchase second homes or investment properties. This shift is fueled by the continued rise in home values, offering substantial equity to long-term homeowners. As a result, individuals in this demographic are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the current market dynamics, utilizing their accrued equity to expand their real estate portfolios, thereby diversifying their investments ahead of or during retirement.

In conclusion, the housing market is characterized by robust demand from millennials and a pronounced shortage in supply. These factors suggest that housing prices may remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Therefore, selling a property in the current market might be premature, considering the potential for more advantageous conditions in the upcoming years.