Hot Economy Meets Russia and China
The fundamental cause of rising inflation continues to be the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy — a combination of pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Loose Federal Reserve monetary policies and billions of dollars in government stimulus helped prevent a deeper recession but added fuel to the fire when the economy reopened.

 

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has placed upward pressure on already high global fuel and food prices. ³  At the same time, a COVID resurgence in China led to strict lockdowns that have closed factories and tightened already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April. ⁴

 

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, it's important that our Phillips 66 clients consider that the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March. ⁸

One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation. ^10-11

Soft or Hard Landing?
The current inflationary situation has raised many questions among our Phillips 66 clients in regard to what the solution is. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the post-pandemic era, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2026 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2026. ¹²  This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a 'neutral rate' that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. ¹³

Before finalizing any estate plan, it is worth examining how Phillips 66's employer-sponsored benefits fit into the broader picture. According to publicly available information, Phillips 66 maintains a cash balance pension plan, which defines your retirement benefit as a hypothetical account balance that grows over your career through pay credits and interest credits. Under ERISA, cash balance plan benefits vest on a three-year cliff schedule. Phillips 66 also offers retiree healthcare benefits to eligible employees. Because the specifics of your cash balance account balance, vesting status, and benefit options depend on your individual employment history and plan documents, We encourage you to review your Summary Plan Description (SPD) or speak with Phillips 66's HR or benefits team for the most current details.

These moves were projected to bring the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2026, 2.7% by the end of 2026, and 2.3% by the end of 2026. ¹⁴  PCE inflation — which was 6.6% in March — tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher. ¹⁵

Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the fund's rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed's bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate. ¹⁶