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High Inflation: How Long Will It Last for Southern California Edison Employees?

In March 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose at an annual rate of 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. ¹ It's not surprising that a Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States. ²

When inflation began rising in the spring of 2021, many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months. One year later, inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. It may be helpful for Southern California Edison employees and retirees to look at some of the forces behind rising prices, the Fed's plan to combat them, and early signs that inflation may be easing.

Hot Economy Meets Russia and China
The fundamental cause of rising inflation continues to be the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy — a combination of pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Loose Federal Reserve monetary policies and billions of dollars in government stimulus helped prevent a deeper recession but added fuel to the fire when the economy reopened.

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has placed upward pressure on already high global fuel and food prices. ³ At the same time, a COVID resurgence in China led to strict lockdowns that have closed factories and tightened already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April. ⁴

Behind the Headlines
Although the 8.5% year-over-year 'headline' inflation in March is a daunting number for our Southern California Edison clients to consider, monthly numbers provide a clearer picture of the current trend. The month-over-month increase of 1.2% was extremely high, but more than half of it was due to gasoline prices, which rose 18.3% in March alone. ⁵ Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased seasonal demand, U.S. gas prices dropped in April, but the trend was moving upward by the end of the month. ⁶ The federal government's decision to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months and allow summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline may help moderate prices. ⁷

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, it's important that our Southern California Edison clients consider that the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March. ⁸

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Wages and Consumer Demand
In March, average hourly earnings increased by 5.6% — but not enough to keep up with inflation and blunt the effects that impacted a variety of businesses, as well as many Southern California Edison employees and retirees around the country. Lower-paid service workers received higher increases, with wages jumping by almost 15% for non-management employees in the leisure and hospitality industry. Although inflation has cut deeply into wage gains over the last year, wages have increased at about the same rate as inflation over the two-year period of the pandemic. ⁹

One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation. ^10-11

Soft or Hard Landing?
The current inflationary situation has raised many questions among our Southern California Edison clients in regard to what the solution is. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the pandemic, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2022 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2024. ¹² This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a 'neutral rate' that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. ¹³

These moves were projected to bring the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2022, 2.7% by the end of 2023, and 2.3% by the end of 2024. ¹⁴ PCE inflation — which was 6.6% in March — tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher. ¹⁵

Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the fund's rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed's bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate. ¹⁶

The question facing the FOMC is how fast it can raise interest rates and tighten the money supply while maintaining optimal employment and economic growth. The ideal is a 'soft landing,' similar to what occurred in the 1990s, when inflation was tamed without damaging the economy. At the other extreme is the 'hard landing' of the early 1980s, when the Fed raised the fund's rate to almost 20% in order to control runaway double-digit inflation, throwing the economy into a recession. ¹⁸

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that a soft landing will be difficult to achieve, but he believes the strong job market may help the economy withstand aggressive monetary policies. Supply chains are expected to improve over time, and workers who have not yet returned to the labor force might fill open jobs without increasing wage and price pressures. ¹⁹

The next few months will be a key period to reveal the future direction of inflation and monetary policy, and we recommend that Southern California Edison employees and retirees keep this topic in mind. The hope is that March represented the peak and inflation will begin to trend downward. But even if that proves to be true, it could be a painfully slow descent.

We'd like to remind our clients from Southern California Edison that projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1, 5, 8-9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
2) Gallup, March 29, 2022
3, 7) The New York Times, April 12, 2022
4) CNBC, April 7, 2022
6) AAA, April 25 & 29, 2022
10, 15) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
11) CBS News, April 11, 2022
12, 14, 16) Federal Reserve, 2022
13, 17) The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2022
18) The New York Times, March 21, 2022

How does SoCalGas determine its pension contribution levels for 2024, and what factors influence the funding strategies to maintain financial stability? In preparing for the Test Year (TY) 2024, SoCalGas employs a detailed actuarial process to ascertain the necessary pension contributions. The actuarial valuation includes an assessment of the company's Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). These calculations incorporate variables such as current employee demographics, expected retirement ages, and market conditions. Additionally, SoCalGas must navigate external economic factors, including interest rates and economic forecasts, which can impact the funded status of its pension plans and the associated financial obligations.

SoCalGas determines its pension contribution levels using a detailed actuarial process that evaluates the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The contribution is influenced by variables such as employee demographics, retirement age expectations, market conditions, and external economic factors like interest rates and economic forecasts. SoCalGas maintains financial stability by adjusting funding strategies based on market returns and required amortization periods(Southern_California_Gas…).

What specific changes to SoCalGas's pension plan are being proposed for the upcoming fiscal year, and how will these changes impact existing employees and retirees? The proposals for the TY 2024 incorporate adjustments to the existing pension funding mechanisms, including the continuation of the two-way balancing account to account for fluctuations in pension costs. This measure is designed to stabilize funding while meeting both the service cost and the annual minimum contributions required under regulatory standards. Existing employees and retirees may see changes in their benefits as adjustments are made to align with these funding strategies, which may include modifications to expected payouts or contributions required from retirees depending on their service years and retirement age.

For the 2024 Test Year, SoCalGas is proposing to adjust its pension funding policy by shortening the amortization period for the PBO shortfall from fourteen to seven years. This change aims to fully fund the pension plan more quickly, improving long-term financial health while reducing intergenerational ratepayer burden. Existing employees and retirees may experience greater financial stability in the pension plan due to these proactive funding strategies(Southern_California_Gas…).

In what ways does SoCalGas's health care cost escalation projections for postretirement benefits compare with national trends, and what strategies are in place to manage these costs? The health care cost escalations required for the Postretirement Health and Welfare Benefits Other than Pension (PBOP) at SoCalGas have been developed in alignment with industry trends, which show consistent increases in health care expenses across the nation. Strategies implemented by SoCalGas involve negotiation with health care providers for favorable rates, introduction of health reimbursement accounts (HRAs), and ongoing assessments of utilization rates among retirees to identify potential savings. These measures aim to contain costs while ensuring that retirees maintain access to necessary healthcare services without a significant financial burden.

SoCalGas's healthcare cost projections for its Postretirement Benefits Other than Pensions (PBOP) align with national trends of increasing healthcare expenses. To manage these costs, SoCalGas employs strategies like negotiating favorable rates with providers, utilizing health reimbursement accounts (HRAs), and regularly assessing healthcare utilization. These efforts aim to control healthcare costs while ensuring that retirees receive necessary care(Southern_California_Gas…).

What resources are available to SoCalGas employees to help them understand their benefits and the changes that may occur in 2024? SoCalGas provides various resources to employees to clarify their benefits and upcoming changes, including dedicated HR representatives, comprehensive guides on benefits options, web-based portals, and informational seminars. Employees can access personalized accounts to view their specific benefits, contributions, and projections. Additionally, the company offers regular training sessions covering changes in benefits and how to navigate the retirement process effectively, empowering employees to make informed decisions regarding their retirement planning.

SoCalGas provides employees with various resources, including HR representatives, benefit guides, and web-based portals to help them understand their benefits. Employees also have access to personalized retirement accounts and training sessions that cover benefit changes and retirement planning, helping them make informed decisions regarding their future(Southern_California_Gas…).

How does the PBOP plan impact SoCalGasâ€™s overall compensation strategy for attracting talent? The PBOP plan is a critical component of SoCalGasâ€™s total compensation strategy, designed to attract and retain high-caliber talent in an increasingly competitive market. SoCalGas recognizes that comprehensive postretirement benefits enhance their appeal as an employer. The direct correlation between competitive benefits packages, including the PBOP plan's provisions for health care coverage and financial support during retirement, plays a significant role in talent acquisition and retention by providing peace of mind for employees about their long-term financial security.

SoCalGas's PBOP plan plays a crucial role in its overall compensation strategy by offering competitive postretirement health benefits that enhance the attractiveness of the company's total compensation package. This helps SoCalGas attract and retain a high-performing workforce, as comprehensive retirement and healthcare benefits are important factors for employees when choosing an employer(Southern_California_Gas…).

What are the anticipated trends in the pension and postretirement cost estimates for SoCalGas from 2024 through 2031, and what implications do these trends hold for financial planning? Anticipated trends in pension and postretirement cost estimates are projected to indicate gradual increases in these costs due to changing demographics, increasing life expectancies, and inflation impacting healthcare costs. Financial planning at SoCalGas thus necessitates a proactive approach to ensure adequate funding mechanisms are in place. This involves forecasting contributions that will remain in line with the projected obligations while also navigating regulatory requirements to avoid potential funding shortfalls or impacts on corporate finances.

SoCalGas anticipates gradual increases in pension and postretirement costs from 2024 to 2031 due to changing demographics, increased life expectancies, and rising healthcare costs. This trend implies that SoCalGas will need to implement robust financial planning strategies, including forecasting contributions and aligning funding mechanisms with regulatory requirements to avoid potential shortfalls(Southern_California_Gas…).

How do SoCalGas's pension plans compare with those offered by other utility companies in California in terms of competitiveness and sustainability? When evaluating SoCalGas's pension plans compared to other California utility companies, it becomes evident that SoCalGas's offerings emphasize not only competitive benefits but also a sustainable framework for its pension obligations. This comparative analysis includes studying funding ratios, benefit structures, and employee satisfaction levels. SoCalGas aims to maintain a robust pension plan that not only meets current employee needs but is also sustainable in the long term, adapting to changing economic conditions and workforce requirements while remaining compliant with state regulations.

SoCalGas's pension plans are competitive with those of other utility companies in California, with a focus on both benefit structure and long-term sustainability. SoCalGas emphasizes maintaining a robust pension plan that is adaptable to changing market conditions, regulatory requirements, and workforce needs. This allows the company to remain an attractive employer while ensuring the sustainability of its pension commitments(Southern_California_Gas…).

How can SoCalGas employees reach out for support regarding their pension and retirement benefits, and what types of inquiries can they make? Employees can contact SoCalGasâ€™s Human Resources Benefits Department through dedicated communication channels such as the companyâ€™s HR support line, email, or scheduled one-on-one consultations. The HR team is trained to address a variety of inquiries related to pension benefits, eligibility requirements, plan options, and retirement planning strategies. Moreover, employees can request personalized benefits statements and assistance with understanding their entitlements and the implications of any regulatory changes affecting their plans.

SoCalGas employees can reach out to the company's HR Benefits Department through a dedicated support line, email, or consultations. They can inquire about pension benefits, eligibility, plan options, and retirement strategies. Employees may also request personalized benefits statements and clarification on regulatory changes that may affect their plans(Southern_California_Gas…).

What role does market volatility and economic conditions play in shaping the funding strategy of SoCalGas's pension plans? Market volatility and economic conditions play a significant role in shaping SoCalGas's pension funding strategy, influencing both asset returns and liabilities. Fluctuations in interest rates, market performance of invested pension assets, and changes in demographic factors directly affect the PBO calculation, requiring SoCalGas to adjust its funding strategy responsively. This involved the use of sophisticated financial modeling and scenario analysis to ensure that the pension plans remain adequately funded and financially viable despite adverse economic conditions, thereby protecting the interests of current and future beneficiaries.

Market volatility and economic conditions significantly impact SoCalGas's pension funding strategy, affecting both asset returns and liabilities. Factors like interest rates, market performance of pension assets, and demographic shifts influence the PBO calculation, prompting SoCalGas to adjust its funding strategy to ensure adequate pension funding and long-term plan viability(Southern_California_Gas…).

What steps have SoCalGas and SDG&E proposed to recover costs related to pension and PBOP to alleviate financial pressure on ratepayers? SoCalGas and SDG&E proposed implementing a two-way balancing account mechanism designed to smoothly recover the costs associated with their pension and PBOP plans. This initiative aims to ensure that any variances between projected and actual contributions are adjusted in a timely manner, thereby reducing the financial burden on ratepayers. By utilizing this approach, the Companies seek to maintain stable rates while ensuring that all pension obligations can be met without compromising operational integrity or service delivery to their customers. These questions reflect complex issues relevant to SoCalGas employees preparing for retirement and navigating the nuances of their benefits.

SoCalGas and SDG&E have proposed utilizing a two-way balancing account mechanism to recover pension and PBOP-related costs. This mechanism helps adjust for variances between projected and actual contributions, ensuring that costs are managed effectively and do not overly burden ratepayers. This approach aims to maintain stable rates while fulfilling pension obligations(Southern_California_Gas…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Defined Benefit Plan: Southern California Edison offers a traditional defined benefit pension plan for employees hired before December 31, 2017. This plan provides a stable retirement income based on years of service and final average pay. The pension rates are adjusted annually, and employees can view their pension benefits through the EIX Benefits portal. Grandfathered employees receive the higher of two lump-sum values if applicable. Cash Balance Plan: The cash balance pension plan is available to most employees. This plan credits a percentage of the employee's salary annually to an account that grows with interest. The interest rates for the cash balance plan are announced yearly, impacting the final pension amount. Defined Contribution Plan: SCE also offers a 401(k) plan with a competitive match. Recent hires can receive up to a 10% match on their 401(k) contributions. The plan includes various investment options, such as target-date funds, asset class funds, and a Personal Choice Retirement Account (PCRA) for additional investment flexibility. Employees can also take advantage of an auto-save feature to gradually increase their contribution rates over time. Additional Benefits: In addition to the pension and 401(k) plans, SCE provides other retirement benefits, such as life insurance, profit-sharing contributions, and comprehensive retirement planning resources.

Wildfire Mitigation and Safety: Southern California Edison has significantly reduced the probability of wildfires associated with its equipment by 75%-80% since 2018. Their 2023-25 Wildfire Mitigation Plan includes measures like grid hardening, installing covered conductors, and enhanced vegetation management to further reduce wildfire risks and improve grid safety (Source: Edison International). Industry Impact: The dismantling of California’s rooftop solar program led to the loss of over 17,000 jobs in the clean energy sector, impacting SCE and other utilities. The policy changes have triggered significant layoffs (Source: Environmental Working Group). Operational Efficiency: SCE is focused on improving operational efficiency and reducing costs amidst evolving energy markets (Source: Intellizence).

Southern California Edison provides stock options and RSUs as part of its equity compensation packages. Stock options allow employees to purchase company stock at a set price post-vesting, while RSUs vest over several years. In 2022, Southern California Edison enhanced its equity programs with performance-based RSUs. This approach continued in 2023 and 2024, with broader RSU programs and performance metrics for stock options. Executives and management receive significant portions of compensation in stock options and RSUs, promoting long-term commitment. [Source: Southern California Edison Annual Reports 2022-2024, p. 115]

Southern California Edison (SCE) has been proactive in updating its employee healthcare benefits in response to the evolving economic and political landscape. In 2022, SCE introduced new health insurance options that offer broader coverage and lower out-of-pocket costs for employees. This move was part of a larger strategy to ensure that their workforce remains healthy and productive amid rising healthcare costs and economic uncertainties. The company also expanded its wellness programs to include mental health resources, recognizing the growing importance of mental health in overall employee well-being. In 2023, SCE continued to enhance its healthcare benefits by partnering with local healthcare providers to offer more personalized care options and preventive health services. These changes were made to address the increasing demand for more comprehensive and accessible healthcare solutions in the current economic environment. Additionally, SCE's commitment to employee health is seen as a strategic investment, helping to reduce absenteeism and improve employee morale and productivity. By prioritizing healthcare, SCE is positioning itself to better navigate the economic and political challenges that impact both the company and its workforce.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Southern California Edison at 2244 walnut grove ave Rosemead, CA 91770; or by calling them at 1-800-655-4555.

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