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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Abbott Laboratories Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Abbott Laboratories: Abbott Laboratories operates as both a developer and provider of various healthcare products and services, focusing on medical devices, diagnostics, nutrition, and pharmaceuticals. Its health care offerings span from advanced medical devices for chronic disease management to diagnostic equipment and nutritional products aimed at enhancing patient care and outcomes. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we look towards 2026, healthcare costs are anticipated to surge significantly, primarily driven by the expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). States may implement record-setting premium hikes, with some rates soaring over 60%. Combined with underlying medical cost inflation and aggressive rate increases from major insurers, consumers could face an alarming rise in out-of-pocket costs-potentially over 75% for many policyholders. This scenario underscores the pressing need for individuals to strategically prepare for the financial landscape in the coming years. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Abbott Laboratories employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Abbott Laboratories employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Abbott Laboratories employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Abbott Laboratories employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Abbott Laboratories preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Abbott Laboratories employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Abbott Laboratories with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan (ARP) determine the eligibility requirements for employees, and how can potential changes in federal regulations impact these requirements? Employees of Abbott Laboratories may need to understand the nuances of eligibility, particularly regarding age and service criteria. Changes in laws governing retirement benefits could pose questions about continued eligibility and could affect when employees can begin pension payments.

Eligibility Requirements & Impact of Federal Regulations: Employees at Abbott Laboratories become eligible for the ARP by being part of a participating division, being at least 21 years old, and residing in the U.S. (with certain exceptions for U.S. employees abroad). Changes in federal regulations could potentially alter these eligibility criteria, especially since such rules often influence age and service requirements for retirement plans. Any changes in legislation regarding retirement benefits might necessitate adjustments in eligibility rules, affecting when employees can begin receiving pension payments.

Can you explain the significance of Vesting Service in the context of the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan? Employees often wonder how their years of service influence their benefit eligibility and the amount they can expect. Understanding the elements that constitute Vesting Service, and the implications of terminating employment before achieving vesting, is crucial for Abbott Laboratories employees planning for retirement.

Significance of Vesting Service: Vesting Service at Abbott Laboratories refers to the time an employee must accumulate to gain entitlement to pension benefits, irrespective of continued employment. This service is critical as it determines the security of an employee's future benefits and the degree of an employee's investment in the company's pension plan. Employees who terminate employment prior to achieving full vesting lose entitlement to accrued pension benefits, making understanding and accruing Vesting Service essential for long-term financial planning.

In what ways does the calculation of Final Average Pay play a role in determining retirement benefits under the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan? The methodology used to calculate an employee's Final Average Pay can significantly impact the retirement income they receive. Employees at Abbott Laboratories should consider how their earnings history and the inclusion or exclusion of certain payments factor into their anticipated benefits.

Role of Final Average Pay in Benefit Calculation: Final Average Pay (FAP) is crucial in determining the pension benefits under the ARP as it represents the average of an employee’s highest earnings over a specified period. Abbott’s ARP calculates pension based on a percentage of the FAP, multiplied by years of eligible service. This calculation means that higher earnings towards the end of an employee's career can significantly increase the pension benefits, incentivizing employees to maximize their earnings potential in their final working years.

What optional forms of payment are available to employees upon retirement under the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan, and how do these choices affect overall pension benefits? Abbott Laboratories employees need to evaluate whether to choose single or joint survivor annuities, among other options, as these decisions can have long-term financial implications for both themselves and their beneficiaries.

Optional Forms of Payment at Retirement: The ARP offers various payment options upon retirement, including single and joint survivor annuities, which affect the benefit's distribution and longevity. These choices impact financial planning for retirement, particularly in ensuring that a spouse or beneficiary may continue to receive benefits after the retiree's death. The selection between these options should align with personal financial needs and considerations for dependents' security.

Different employees may have varying perspectives on the importance of early retirement options offered by Abbott Laboratories. What are the qualifications for early special retirement, and how does this option affect retirement income? Employees contemplating retirement before the standard age should understand how factors such as age, years of service, and the specific provisions of the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan influence their benefits.

Early Retirement Qualifications and Impacts: Early retirement under the ARP is available to employees who meet specific age and service criteria, allowing them to retire with reduced benefits before reaching the normal retirement age. This option can significantly affect retirement income, depending on the number of years ahead of normal retirement age the employee chooses to retire, making it crucial for employees to understand the financial trade-offs involved in retiring early.

How does the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), and what rights do employees have under this act? Abbott Laboratories employees should be informed about their rights regarding plan documentation, required disclosures, and recourse in the event of disputes pertaining to their retirement benefits.

ARP Compliance with ERISA: The ARP is designed to comply with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), providing employees with rights to information about plan features and funding, benefits accrual, and recourse in case of disputes. Compliance with ERISA ensures that employees' retirement benefits are protected under federal law, offering a framework for security and transparency in their retirement planning.

How do Abbott Laboratories employees who experience a medical leave of absence or disability maintain their retirement service credits under the Annuity Retirement Plan? Understanding the interaction between long-term disability benefits, medical leave, and retirement plan participation is essential for employees navigating health-related issues while planning for their retirement.

Impact of Medical Leave or Disability on Retirement Credits: Employees on medical leave or disability continue to accrue service credits under the ARP, ensuring that such periods do not adversely affect their pension benefits. This protection helps employees who are temporarily unable to work due to health issues maintain their trajectory towards earning full retirement benefits.

Given the potential for changes to the Abbott Laboratories Annuity Retirement Plan, how can employees stay informed about their rights and any modifications to the planâ€™s terms? Employees at Abbott Laboratories should have access to reliable communication channels, including how to receive updates about the retirement plan, which could impact their financial planning.

Staying Informed About Plan Changes: Employees can stay informed about changes to the ARP through regular communications from Abbott Laboratories, access to updated plan documents, and direct inquiries to the Abbott Benefits Center. Staying proactive in seeking information and understanding the implications of plan modifications is essential for effective retirement planning.

What processes should Abbott Laboratories employees follow if they wish to obtain a statement regarding their entitlement to a pension? Employees looking to plan for retirement need clear instructions on how to request this crucial information and understand its importance in their long-term financial strategy.

Obtaining a Pension Statement: Employees wishing to obtain a statement of their pension entitlements under the ARP should contact the Abbott Benefits Center. Clear instructions on how to request this information are crucial for employees to plan accurately for retirement and understand their accrued benefits.

If an employee at Abbott Laboratories has further questions about the Annuity Retirement Plan or requires clarification on the document contents, how can they effectively contact the appropriate department? Knowing how to reach out to Abbott Laboratories' Benefits Center regarding retirement plan inquiries is vital for all employees wanting to confirm their understanding or seek additional information about their retirement benefits.

Contacting the Appropriate Department for Plan Inquiries: For further inquiries or clarification regarding the ARP, employees should contact the Abbott Benefits Center. Knowing the correct contact information and how to reach out effectively is vital for resolving concerns and gaining a deeper understanding of their retirement benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Abbott Laboratories offers an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) that allows employees to purchase company stock at a discounted price through automatic payroll deductions. This plan operates in two periods: an "offering period" where payroll deductions accumulate, and a "purchase period" where those deductions are used to buy Abbott/AbbVie stock. The ESPP is a qualified plan, meaning contributions are made on a pre-tax basis, allowing for tax-deferred growth. Employees can benefit from lower taxes on gains if they hold the stock for at least one year and sell it at least two years after the offering date. This plan helps employees benefit from the company's performance while also providing tax savings. 401(k) Plan - Stock Retirement Plan (SRP) Abbott's 401(k) plan, known as the Stock Retirement Plan (SRP), provides a significant company match. Employees who contribute 2% of their gross pay receive a 5% company match. In 2022, employees can contribute up to $20,500 annually ($27,000 if over age 50), with employer and employee contributions capped at a combined $61,000 ($67,500 if over 50). Contributions are automatically deducted from paychecks, deferring taxes until retirement when the employee might be in a lower tax bracket. Additionally, Abbott’s Freedom 2 Save program automatically contributes up to 5% of an employee’s gross salary to the SRP plan if the employee contributes at least 2% of their income to student loan repayment. This generous matching scheme and additional programs can help employees build substantial retirement savings over time. [Source: Abbott Benefits Guide, 2022, p. 10]

Abbott Laboratories has announced significant layoffs in 2024, including the closure of its Fairfield plant, which will result in nearly 200 job losses due to cost-cutting measures. This comes amidst a broader trend of job cuts in their medtech and diagnostic divisions, particularly as demand for COVID-19 tests diminishes. Additionally, Abbott is cutting 3,000 jobs globally as part of a restructuring effort to streamline operations and improve efficiencies. This news is critical for stakeholders to understand the economic and political pressures influencing these decisions, including rising inflation, shifts in demand for healthcare products, and strategic moves to maintain financial stability in a volatile market (Hoodline) (MedTech Dive) (FierceBiotech) (FiercePharma) (Press Herald).

Abbott Laboratories offers stock options and RSUs to align employee interests with company goals. Stock options are granted with a predetermined price and vesting period, while RSUs vest over a few years based on performance or tenure. In 2022, Abbott enhanced its equity programs, emphasizing performance-based RSUs. The trend continued in 2023 and 2024, with broader RSU availability and performance-linked stock options. Executives and middle management are the primary recipients, fostering long-term alignment with company performance. [Source: Abbott Annual Reports 2022-2024, p. 34] Abbott’s RSU program provides employees with shares of company stock subject to a vesting schedule based on performance milestones or years of service. Once vested, RSUs convert to stock, and their fair market value is taxed as ordinary income. Proper tax planning around RSUs is crucial to minimize tax liability, as vesting can significantly impact income and tax brackets. Employees need to decide whether to hold or sell the stock after it becomes available, considering that selling within one year of conversion results in higher tax rates compared to long-term capital gains rates for stock held for more than a year. Integrating RSUs into a comprehensive wealth management plan is essential for maximizing their benefits.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Abbott Laboratories at 1295 state street Springfield, MA 1111; or by calling them at 1-866-329-6277.

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