New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Alcoa Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Alcoa Alcoa has partnered with several healthcare plans to provide its employees with benefits, primarily utilizing the services of major health insurance providers. For many employees, Alcoa's health coverage encompasses offerings from companies like Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield and Aetna, focusing on comprehensive coverage options that include medical, dental, and vision plans. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases for Alcoa in 2026 As we look ahead to 2026, healthcare costs are projected to rise significantly, primarily driven by increases in ACA marketplace premiums. Nationally, insurers are requesting median premium hikes of approximately 20%, with individual states seeing increases as high as 66%. The expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies adds further pressure, potentially leading to a staggering 75% increase in out-of-pocket costs for many enrollees. For Alcoa employees, these factors will likely mean a reevaluation of healthcare spending and strategic planning to mitigate escalating out-of-pocket expenses in the coming year. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Alcoa employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Alcoa employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Alcoa employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Alcoa employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Alcoa preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Alcoa employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Alcoa with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the key eligibility requirements for employees to participate in the Pension Plan for Certain Hourly Employees of Alcoa USA Corp, and how do these requirements change if an employee is hired or rehired after April 1, 2022? This question aims to explore the specific criteria that must be met for participation in the plan, providing clarity on both the general eligibility for new employees and any exceptions for those previously employed.

Eligibility Requirements: Employees are automatically eligible for the Pension Plan for Certain Hourly Employees of Alcoa USA Corp if they were hired or rehired before April 1, 2022, have reached age 21, and completed one year of vesting service. Employees hired or rehired on or after April 1, 2022, are not eligible for this pension plan(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

How is the vesting service calculated in the context of the Alcoa USA Corp pension plan, and what implications does it have for an employee considering retirement? Understanding the nuances of how vesting service is accrued and the minimum time required to become vested can significantly impact an employee's retirement planning.

Vesting Service Calculation: Vesting service determines when an employee becomes eligible for pension benefits. Employees become vested after completing five years of vesting service, which includes both periods of pension service and non-pension service such as absences not counted towards pension service. This is crucial for retirement planning, as it ensures employees are entitled to pension benefits even if they leave the company after becoming vested(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

What various retirement options are available to employees of Alcoa USA Corp, and how do these options affect the benefits and payout structure for retiring employees? This question addresses the multiple choices employees face when planning their retirement, including the differences between normal retirement, early retirement, and disability retirement benefits.

Retirement Options: The plan offers normal retirement (at age 65 with five years of vesting service), 60/10 retirement (for employees between 60 and 62 with 10 years of vesting service), and 62/10 retirement (for employees between 62 and 65 with 10 years of vesting service). Disability retirement is also available for those permanently incapacitated with 10 years of vesting service(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

Can you elaborate on the survivor benefits provided under the Alcoa USA Corp pension plan, and what steps need to be taken to ensure that a spouse or partner is eligible for these benefits upon the employee's retirement? This question seeks to examine the protections and financial security afforded to survivors, alongside the required documentation and choices available to employees.

Survivor Benefits: The pension plan provides automatic surviving spouse coverage unless waived by the employee and spouse. Surviving spouse pensions are payable if the employee dies while actively employed and vested in the plan, after retirement, or while receiving a deferred vested pension. The spouse must submit a written application to claim benefits(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …)(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

What are the specific methodologies used to calculate the regular monthly pension for employees retiring under the Alcoa USA Corp pension plan, and how might these calculations vary based on an employee's age and years of service? This question looks at the complex actuarial factors that influence pension benefits, enhancing employees' understanding of how their retirement income is determined.

Pension Calculation: The regular monthly pension is calculated using a formula based on the employee's pension service and a pension factor in effect when pension service ends. For example, if an employee retires at 65 with 10 years of service, the pension factor might be $57 per year of service. The pension is adjusted based on age and service length(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

In the event of a disability, how does the Alcoa USA Corp pension plan provide support to affected employees, and what are the requirements to qualify for disability retirement benefits? This question emphasizes the importance of understanding disability provisions, ensuring employees are aware of their rights and the circumstances under which they might qualify for benefits.

Disability Retirement: Employees under 62 who are permanently incapacitated with at least 10 years of vesting service qualify for disability retirement. They must be deemed permanently disabled and unable to return to work in a bargaining unit occupation. A medical examination may be required to confirm ongoing eligibility(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

What steps must Alcoa USA Corp employees take to apply for retirement benefits, and what timelines are involved in the processing and payout of these benefits? This question delves into the procedural aspects of retirement applications, aiming to prepare potential retirees for the necessary actions they must undertake.

Retirement Application Process: Employees must file a retirement application with the plan administrator before their desired retirement date. The application can be filed up to 90 days before retirement, and the process typically includes receiving benefit explanations and payment elections within this timeframe(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

How does the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) influence the pension benefits received by employees of Alcoa USA Corp, particularly in the context of plan terminations or financial challenges? This question explores the security provided by the PBGC, focusing on its role as a backup for employeesâ€™ pension benefits.

Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC): The PBGC provides a safety net for pension benefits in the case of plan termination or financial distress. If the pension plan is underfunded, the PBGC ensures employees still receive pension benefits, although certain limitations may apply(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

What resources and support does Alcoa USA Corp provide to its employees for understanding their pension plan, and how can employees reach out for assistance regarding their retirement options? This question emphasizes the resources available to employees for further education and guidance, ensuring they know where to turn for help.

Resources for Understanding the Plan: Employees can access information about their pension plan and retirement options through the Alight Worklife™ website or by calling the Alcoa benefits helpline. These resources offer guidance on applying for retirement and understanding plan benefits(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

How can employees of Alcoa USA Corp contact the benefits management team to learn more about their specific pension plan details, and what channels are available for inquiries? Understanding the communication channels can empower employees to seek the information they need, facilitating a smoother transition into retirement.

Contacting Benefits Management: Employees can reach out to the benefits management team through the Alight Worklife™ website or by phone at 1-844-31ALCOA. This service provides assistance with pension-related inquiries and retirement applications(Alcoa USA Corp_Pension …).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Alcoa Corporation offers a defined benefit pension plan for certain retirees, known as the Alcoa Retirement Plan. In 2022, Alcoa transferred $1 billion in pension obligations to an annuity, maintaining benefit levels for retirees. Eligibility typically requires a combination of years of service and age. Alcoa also offers a 401(k) plan with a company match of up to 6% of employee contributions. Employees can make traditional and Roth contributions, with immediate vesting for all contributions. [Source: Alcoa Benefits Summary, 2022, p. 12]

Restructuring and Leadership Changes: Alcoa announced a significant restructuring of its Executive Leadership Team effective February 1, 2023, to enhance operational excellence, cost management, and innovation. Key changes include William F. Oplinger becoming EVP and Chief Operations Officer, Molly Beerman being appointed as EVP and Chief Financial Officer, and Renato Bacchi taking on added responsibilities as EVP, Chief Strategy & Innovation Officer. These changes aim to align the company's strategy with its vision to reinvent the aluminum industry and integrate corporate strategy with innovative technologies (Source: Alcoa Corporation). Layoffs and Operational Adjustments: Alcoa took a $6 million charge related to layoffs at its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, part of a broader restructuring program. This decision was driven by operational setbacks and permitting issues in Australia. Additionally, the company has reduced the number of planned layoffs at its Warrick Operations from an estimated 600 to about 325. This reduction reflects ongoing adjustments to improve efficiency and align with market conditions (Sources: Mining Weekly, Indianapolis Business Journal).

Alcoa provides stock options and RSUs as part of its equity compensation programs. Stock options allow employees to purchase company stock at a fixed price after a vesting period, while RSUs are awarded with a promise of company shares upon meeting certain conditions. In 2022, Alcoa granted both stock options and RSUs to employees, focusing on performance-based RSUs to drive long-term goals. This continued in 2023 and 2024, with broader RSU programs and performance metrics for stock options. Executives and management receive substantial portions of compensation in stock options and RSUs, promoting long-term commitment and performance. [Source: Alcoa Annual Reports 2022-2024, p. 45]

In 2022, Alcoa enhanced its healthcare benefits with expanded mental health support and telemedicine services. By 2023, the company continued to focus on employee wellness with additional preventive care options and wellness initiatives. In 2024, Alcoa's strategy remained centered on integrating innovative health solutions and maintaining comprehensive healthcare coverage. The company emphasized digital health tools and employee support programs to address evolving needs. Alcoa aimed to ensure robust healthcare benefits while managing costs effectively. Their approach reflects a commitment to improving overall employee well-being and satisfaction.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Alcoa at 390 park avenue New York, NY 10022-4608; or by calling them at (412) 315-2900.

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