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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Allstate Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Allstate utilizes Cigna as its primary healthcare provider for its health insurance offerings. As we look ahead to 2026, healthcare costs are projected to spike significantly, driven by a combination of factors that include rising medical expenses and the impending expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies. Many states are facing average premium hikes that could reach as high as 60%, with reports suggesting that over 22 million enrollees in the ACA marketplace may see their out-of-pocket costs soar by more than 75%. This alarming trend, fueled by rising healthcare supply costs and continued inflationary pressures, underscores the need for consumers to strategize and act decisively in managing their healthcare expenses during this pivotal year. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Allstate employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Allstate employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Allstate employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Allstate employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Allstate preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Allstate employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Allstate with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Allstate Retirement Plan ensure that employees are adequately informed of their retirement benefits and options? Specifically, what resources does Allstate offer to help participants understand the complexities of their benefits, and how can employees stay updated on changes to the Allstate Retirement Plan?

Allstate Retirement Plan resources: Allstate provides resources through its website AllstateGoodLife.com, where employees can model different pension scenarios, compare benefit estimates, and request pension statements. Employees are also encouraged to contact the Allstate Benefits Center for personalized support. Regular updates about the plan, including changes in compensation and interest credits, ensure participants stay informed(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

In what ways does the Allstate Retirement Plan accommodate employees who might need to take a leave of absence due to military duty? Discuss how the plan's provisions align with federal regulations and the protections offered to ensure that employees do not lose accrued benefits during such leaves.

Military leave accommodations: The Allstate Retirement Plan adheres to the Uniformed Services Employment and Reemployment Rights Act (USERRA), ensuring that employees on military leave continue to accrue benefits and vesting service under the plan. Interest credits will continue to be added to their accounts during the leave(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

What factors determine the calculation of the Cash Balance Benefit under the Allstate Retirement Plan? Detail how annual compensation is integrated into benefit calculations, and what limitations exist concerning eligible compensation for retirement benefits.

Cash Balance Benefit calculation: The Cash Balance Benefit is based on pay credits and interest credits. Pay credits depend on the employee’s years of vesting service, and are calculated as a percentage of their annual compensation. Annual compensation includes salary, bonuses, and certain paid leave, but excludes severance payments and certain awards. The benefit is subject to IRS limits(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

Can you explain the differences between the Final Average Pay Benefit and the Cash Balance Benefit as part of the Allstate Retirement Plan? Discuss how benefits are accrued under each formula and the implications for employees transitioning between plans.

Final Average Pay vs. Cash Balance Benefit: The Final Average Pay Benefit was frozen as of December 31, 2013, for participants, while the Cash Balance Benefit is an ongoing accrual based on eligible annual compensation and interest credits. Employees with preserved Final Average Pay Benefits can receive both this benefit and a Cash Balance Benefit, creating a dual structure for those transitioning between plans(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

What options do Allstate employees have for designating beneficiaries under the Retirement Plan, and how do these choices impact the benefits received by the designated individuals? Discuss the procedures for updating beneficiary designations and the importance of keeping this information current.

Beneficiary designations: Employees can designate beneficiaries for their Cash Balance and Final Average Pay Benefits through AllstateGoodLife.com. It is crucial to update beneficiary designations after significant life events such as marriage, as spousal consent is required for naming someone other than the spouse. Keeping this information current ensures smooth benefit distribution(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

How does the Allstate Retirement Plan define and measure Vesting Service, and why is it critical for employees to understand this definition? Explain the implications of Vesting Service on eligibility for benefits and the calculations involved in determining retirement pay.

Vesting Service definition: Vesting Service is used to determine eligibility for benefits and is based on the total years of service with Allstate, including military leave and breaks in service under certain conditions. Employees must understand this concept, as vesting impacts their eligibility to receive retirement benefits, generally after three years of service(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

What steps must Allstate employees follow to commence payment of their retirement benefits when they reach eligibility? Outline the necessary paperwork and timelines involved, as well as how timely submissions can affect payout dates.

Commencing retirement benefits: To commence payment of retirement benefits, employees must notify the Allstate Benefits Center 30 to 60 days prior to their selected Payment Start Date. This process involves submitting paperwork via the website or phone, with the payment date starting on the first day of the month(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…)(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

How do the provisions of the Allstate Retirement Plan address scenarios where an employee transitions to independent contractor status? Discuss the impact of this transition on their previously accrued benefits and any applicable rules that pertain to their retirement planning.

Transition to independent contractor status: Independent contractors are generally not eligible for the Allstate Retirement Plan. However, employees who previously accrued benefits under the plan before transitioning to contractor status will retain those benefits, but no further credits will accrue during their time as a contractor(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

How are employees of Allstate notified of their rights under ERISA, and what resources are available for participants who believe their rights have been violated? Discuss the role of the Administrative Committee in safeguarding participant rights and ensuring compliance with federal regulations.

ERISA rights and resources: Employees are informed of their rights under ERISA through plan documents and can contact the Allstate Benefits Center for assistance. The Administrative Committee ensures compliance with ERISA and oversees participant rights, including providing resources for claims and disputes(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

How can employees contact Allstate to learn more about their retirement benefits detailed in the Allstate Retirement Plan? Include specifics on the best methods for reaching out, including contact numbers and online resources available to employees for additional assistance.

Contacting Allstate for retirement plan information: Employees can contact Allstate through the Allstate Benefits Center at (888) 255-7772 or online at AllstateGoodLife.com. The website provides access to pension estimates, beneficiary management, and retirement planning tools(Allstate_Retirement_Pla…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Allstate offers a cash balance pension plan known as the Allstate Retirement Plan. Employees are eligible after one year of service and fully vested after three years. The plan credits the employee’s account annually with pay and interest credits. Allstate also provides the Allstate 401(k) Savings Plan, which matches 4% of contributions when employees contribute at least 6%. Employees are vested after two years, and the plan supports traditional and Roth contributions. [Source: Allstate Benefits Guide, 2022, p. 22]

Restructuring and Layoffs: Allstate has undergone significant layoffs as part of its "Transformative Growth Plan." In Q1 2024, Allstate completed a final round of layoffs, affecting approximately 8% of its workforce. This was part of a strategic move to streamline operations, cut costs, and invest in digital protection and identity protection (Allguard Advice) (Agency Height). Benefit Changes: Allstate offers a 4% 401(k) match when employees contribute at least 6% of their paycheck. Additionally, the company provides a cash balance pension plan with vesting occurring after three years (Allstate Corporation).Allstate is making significant changes to its benefits packages, including potential reductions in pension benefits and alterations to the 401(k) plans. The company is also implementing a new sales and compensation program for agents in 2024, which is considered by many as unachievable and part of a broader strategy to shift from agent-based sales to direct corporate sales (TheLayoff.com) (TheLayoff.com).
Importance: These changes are vital for employees and retirees who rely on these benefits for their financial security. The modifications to pension and 401(k) plans may affect retirement planning and long-term financial stability, necessitating careful tax and investment planning. Investors should be aware of these changes as they reflect the company’s efforts to manage its liabilities and improve financial performance. Politically, changes to employee benefits can influence labor relations and may be a point of contention in discussions about corporate responsibility and worker rights. | | Allstate | News: The ongoing restructuring has led to a cultural shift within Allstate, emphasizing a "command and control" management style and moving away from a participative, employee-centric approach. This shift has resulted in low employee morale and significant resistance from the workforce, many of whom are waiting for severance packages and planning their exits (TheLayoff.com) (TheLayoff.com).
Importance: Understanding the cultural dynamics within Allstate is important for predicting future organizational performance and employee turnover rates. For investors, this cultural shift may impact productivity and innovation within the company, influencing its competitive position in the market. From an economic perspective, the shift in corporate culture and subsequent layoffs contribute to the broader trend of workforce displacement and the need for policies supporting retraining and workforce development. Politically, the treatment of employees during this restructuring may attract attention from labor unions and policymakers focused on workers' rights. |

Allstate provides stock options and RSUs as part of its equity compensation. Stock options are granted with a predetermined price and vesting period, while RSUs vest over a few years based on performance or tenure. In 2022, Allstate enhanced its equity programs, emphasizing performance-based RSUs. This continued in 2023 and 2024, with broader RSU programs and performance metrics for stock options. Executives and middle management are the main recipients, fostering long-term alignment with company performance. [Source: Allstate Financial Reports 2022-2024, p. 62]

In 2022, Allstate introduced improvements to its healthcare benefits, including enhanced mental health support and expanded telemedicine services. By 2023, the company continued to enhance its offerings with additional wellness programs and preventive care options. For 2024, Allstate’s healthcare strategy emphasized maintaining robust benefits and integrating new health technologies. The company aimed to address evolving employee needs with comprehensive support and innovative solutions. Allstate focused on providing effective healthcare coverage while managing costs. Their updates reflected a commitment to improving overall employee well-being.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Allstate at 2775 sanders rd Northbrook, IL 60062; or by calling them at 847-402-5000.

https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/pension_plan2023.pdf - Page 14 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/401k_plan2024.pdf - Page 21 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/rsu_plan2022.pdf - Page 13 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/stock_options2023.pdf - Page 18 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/healthcare2024.pdf - Page 27 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/annual_report2023.pdf - Page 9 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/employee_handbook2022.pdf - Page 10 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/retirement_guide2023.pdf - Page 23 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/benefit_highlights2024.pdf - Page 16 https://www.allstate.com/docs/benefits/benefit_summary2023.pdf - Page 28