Healthcare Provider Update: General Mills primarily collaborates with UnitedHealthcare for its employees' healthcare coverage. As we look ahead to 2026, significant healthcare cost increases are anticipated. Factors contributing to this rise include the expiration of enhanced federal ACA premium subsidies and increasing medical costs within the marketplace. Reports indicate that some states might see premium hikes of over 60%, with experts warning that without legislative intervention, many consumers could face steep increases in out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, potentially rising as much as 75%. This scenario presents a notable challenge for both employees and employers as they navigate the shifting landscape of healthcare costs. Click here to learn more
'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for General Mills employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, General Mills employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
In this article, we will discuss:
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The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
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How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on General Mills employees.
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Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.
The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly General Mills employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.
The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets
The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1
For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.
It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.
The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles
John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2 Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.
This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.
It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at General Mills preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.
Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio
Anyone preparing for retirement, especially General Mills employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.
For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.
Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.
In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.
Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes
Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at General Mills with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.
To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.
As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.
Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.
Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.
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Sources:
1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.
2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.
3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.
4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.
5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.
How can employees of General Mills, Inc. maximize their benefits under the BCTGM Retirement Plan, and what factors are considered in determining pension amounts for those nearing retirement? This question aims to explore the intricate details of how General Mills, Inc. structures its pension benefits to support employees’ future financial stability. It's important for employees to understand the value of their years of service and how this affects their ultimate pension payout as they approach retirement.
Maximizing Benefits under the BCTGM Retirement Plan: Employees of General Mills can maximize their benefits under the BCTGM Retirement Plan by understanding how their years of service and negotiated benefit levels directly affect the pension they receive. The pension amount is determined by the length of service and a defined benefit formula based on the number of years of Benefit Service accrued. As employees approach retirement, they should consider whether they meet eligibility criteria for early or normal retirement, as these factors influence the ultimate pension payout(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
What are the eligibility requirements for participating in the BCTGM Retirement Plan at General Mills, Inc., and how does this participation impact future retirement benefits? Employees should be well-informed about what constitutes eligibility to participate in the retirement plan. Understanding criteria such as service length, employment status, and union participation is crucial, as it directly relates to their ability to accrue retirement benefits.
Eligibility Requirements for BCTGM Retirement Plan: To participate in the BCTGM Retirement Plan, employees must be regular employees of General Mills covered by a collective bargaining agreement. Eligibility is automatic after completing a probationary period. Participation impacts future retirement benefits as employees begin to accrue pension benefits based on years of service, which contributes to their final payout during retirement(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
In what ways does General Mills, Inc. ensure that benefits from the BCTGM Retirement Plan remain protected under federal law, and what role does the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) play in this? Knowledge of the protections available can significantly influence employees' assurance in the viability of their pension benefits. It is vital for employees to recognize how federal guarantees work in safeguarding their retirement benefits.
Federal Law Protections and PBGC's Role: The BCTGM Retirement Plan is protected under federal law, ensuring that employees’ retirement benefits are safeguarded. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) insures vested benefits, including disability and survivor pensions, up to certain limits. This protection provides employees with assurance that their pensions are protected, even in the event of plan termination(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
How does General Mills, Inc. address the complexities of vesting in the BCTGM Retirement Plan, and what can employees do if they are concerned about their vested rights? Vesting is a key concept that affects employees' access to benefits over their careers. Employees need to understand the vesting schedule outlined by General Mills, Inc. and the implications it has on their retirement plans.
Vesting in the BCTGM Retirement Plan: Employees vest in the BCTGM Retirement Plan after completing five years of Eligibility Service or upon reaching age 65. Once vested, employees have a non-forfeitable right to their pension benefits, which means they retain their pension rights even if they leave the company before reaching retirement age(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
What options are available to employees of General Mills, Inc. if they experience a change in their employment status after being vested in the BCTGM Retirement Plan, and how might this impact their future retirement pensions? This question prompts discussion on the plan's provisions regarding reemployment and what employees should be aware of when considering changes to their employment status.
Impact of Employment Status Changes on Pension: If an employee's status changes after being vested in the BCTGM Retirement Plan, such as leaving the company, they may still be entitled to pension benefits. The plan outlines provisions for reemployment and how prior service years are counted toward future pension calculations. Employees who are reemployed may have their previously earned service restored(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
How does the BCTGM Retirement Plan at General Mills, Inc. work in conjunction with Social Security benefits, and what should employees be aware of regarding offsets or deductions? This can encompass the interplay between corporate pension plans and governmental benefits, which is critical for employees to plan their retirement effectively.
Coordination with Social Security Benefits: The BCTGM Retirement Plan operates in addition to Social Security benefits. There are no direct offsets between the pension and Social Security benefits, meaning employees receive both independently. However, employees should be aware of how the timing of drawing Social Security and pension benefits may affect their overall financial situation(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
What steps must employees of General Mills, Inc. take to initiate a claim for benefits under the BCTGM Retirement Plan, and how does the claims process ensure fairness and transparency? A clear comprehension of the claims process is essential for employees to secure their pension benefits. This question encourages exploration of the procedures in place to assist employees in understanding their rights and options.
Claiming Benefits under the BCTGM Retirement Plan: Employees must terminate employment before claiming their BCTGM Retirement Plan benefits. The claims process involves submitting the required forms, and employees must ensure they provide all necessary documentation for a smooth process. The pension is generally paid monthly, with lump-sum options available under specific circumstances(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
How does the retirement benefit formula of the BCTGM Retirement Plan operate, and what specific factors should an employee of General Mills, Inc. consider while planning for retirement? Delving into the calculations involved in determining retirement benefits is important for employees to understand how their service years and other contributions come together to form their final retirement payout.
Retirement Benefit Formula: The retirement benefit formula is calculated based on the years of Benefit Service and a defined benefit level. As of 2024, for each year of Benefit Service, employees receive $87 per month (increasing to $88 after June 1, 2025). Planning for retirement involves considering how long they will work and the benefit level in place at the time of retirement(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
What additional resources or support does General Mills, Inc. provide to assist employees in planning their retirement and ensuring they make the most of their benefits offered under the BCTGM Retirement Plan? Understanding the tools and resources available can empower employees to take proactive steps in managing their retirement plans effectively.
Resources for Retirement Planning: General Mills offers resources like the Benefits Service Center and online portals (e.g., www.mygenmillsbenefits.com) to assist employees with retirement planning. These tools help employees understand their benefits, calculate potential payouts, and explore options for maximizing their retirement income(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
How can employees contact General Mills, Inc. for further information about the BCTGM Retirement Plan or specific queries related to their retirement benefits? This question is crucial so employees know the appropriate channels for communication and can seek clarification on any concerns they may have regarding their retirement planning.
Contact Information for Plan Inquiries: Employees can contact General Mills for more information about the BCTGM Retirement Plan through the Benefits Service Center at 1-877-430-4015 or visit www.mygenmillsbenefits.com. This contact provides direct access to support and answers to questions about their retirement benefits(General_Mills_2024_Pens…).
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